CFP Scenarios (merged)

#1,151
#1,151
LSU now considers themselves automatic on the RANt for the SEC championship berth. Also now saying they would win if they played us again. Petty scared GA fans piling on as expected. GA now replaces AL as most paranoid insecure fan base in college football. I love it! Lets win out one game at a time and bring this thing home!!
 
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#1,152
#1,152
JMSqb11 said:
One more time as a disclaimer: AT 11-1, TENNESSEE IS IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS A #3.

Regarding last night before Bama and Clemson lost, if Tennessee finishes at 11-1 and UGA wins in Atlanta, seeding would have been the below. There has never been a 0 or 1 loss team miss the playoffs that debuted at #1 in initial rankings.

1- UGA
2- OSU/UM
3- Tennessee
4- 13-0 Clemson or 13-0 TCU, but not both.

The committee doesn't respect TCU at all. They made that crystal clear with 1 loss Bama over TCU. There is nothing about a 34-24 win over a 4-5 Texas Tech that will change their minds.....

TCU if they go undefeated will be Cincy of last year. Congrats on going undefeated but that doesn't mean they are entitled to a top 3 seed.

Now if they go undefeated thanks to Clemson and Bama, seeding looks like this:

1- UGA
2- OSU/UM
3- Tennessee
4- TCU
Click to expand...

Just because you keep repeating the same thing doesn't make it so IMO. I saw you said that you'd bet anything they make the Playoff if they go 11-1 but you'd be playing with fire. Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

Just because the initial #1 team has always made it with 0 or 1 loss doesn't have anything to do with this year and this situation. There's an old saying, "there's a first time for everything." I want UT to make the CFP as much as any other diehard Vols fan but I would DEFINITELY temper your expectations on making the playoff. The committee can do whatever they want and on a whim. If TCU wins at Texas, at Baylor, then beats Iowa State and wins in their title game they will be the #3 seed. Their resume will continue to improve. We are playing the sisters of the blind and miserable to end our year which won't move the needle at all. Tennessee has to win big in all 3 remaining games and have a lot of chaos. You are certainly free to have your opinion but I think you are about as wrong as you can be if your assessment is that UT makes the CFP at 11-1 no matter what else happens. We need a lot of help.
 
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#1,153
#1,153
JMSqb11 said:
So now you have to expand / change the goal post to fit your agenda. I have made a very clear data point... Whoever debuts at the #1 rank for CFP and has 0 or 1 loss at the end of the season goes on to make the playoff. For some reason, you can't accept that and have to add to the data point to kneecap Tennessee's candidacy.. Very weird thing to do for a Vol Fan. At the end of the day, we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff regardless of anyone else. TCU (Big 12), Oregon/USC (PAC 12) and now Clemson (ACC) are all jockeying for the fourth and final playoff spot. Tennessee is setup to win out and claim the 3 spot. The only way i would accept not getting the 3 spot is if UGA loses in Atlanta and drops to the 2 or 3 seed and we drop to 4 so the CFP will avoid a SEC vs SEC final.

As a supposed Vol Fan, you should be ecstatic for Tennessee. As a supposed TCU fan, you should be excited Bama and Clemson lost.

This failed understanding by many is amazing. Tennessee is competing for the 3 seed. TCU, and the other 1 loss champs would be competing for the 4 seed. This notion that Tennessee is getting in would only be the 4 seed is laughable. And yes history would point to the CFP wanting to avoid a SEC vs SEC semi....

Have a good evening.
Click to expand...
No I haven’t moved the goal post. Your scenario of opening at #1 and only having one loss aren’t the only two criteria that decided said team staying. Those said teams ALSO played for their conference title, won their conference title or were chosen over a TWO loss team; not another 1 loss team who was conference champ. Again, that’s you basing this in a vacuum. We’re jockeying for 2 spots with multiple teams, I don’t get why the seed is important. You’re stalwartly assuming TCU is still behind us come Tuesday. If they’re not, then I don’t see a path for us to jump them if they win out as their competition improves and ours weakens. I don’t know why you’re so hung up on them being stuck in a certain slot if chalk holds, simply because they were slotted behind Bama last week. I believe the top 4 come Tuesday are the 4 remaining undefeated teams. If that’s the case your whole theory is blown up. The problem is you’re dug in and adamant that won’t be the case come Tuesday simply because you said so.
 
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#1,154
#1,154
JMSqb11 said:
So now you have to expand / change the goal post to fit your agenda. I have made a very clear data point... Whoever debuts at the #1 rank for CFP and has 0 or 1 loss at the end of the season goes on to make the playoff. For some reason, you can't accept that and have to add to the data point to kneecap Tennessee's candidacy.. Very weird thing to do for a Vol Fan. At the end of the day, we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff regardless of anyone else. TCU (Big 12), Oregon/USC (PAC 12) and now Clemson (ACC) are all jockeying for the fourth and final playoff spot. Tennessee is setup to win out and claim the 3 spot. The only way i would accept not getting the 3 spot is if UGA loses in Atlanta and drops to the 2 or 3 seed and we drop to 4 so the CFP will avoid a SEC vs SEC final.

As a supposed Vol Fan, you should be ecstatic for Tennessee. As a supposed TCU fan, you should be excited Bama and Clemson lost.

This failed understanding by many is amazing. Tennessee is competing for the 3 seed. TCU, and the other 1 loss champs would be competing for the 4 seed. This notion that Tennessee is getting in would only be the 4 seed is laughable. And yes history would point to the CFP wanting to avoid a SEC vs SEC semi....

Have a good evening.
Click to expand...
It’s not about fandom, it’s about being rational and taking orange blinders off and putting myself in the mindset of the committee. Based on HISTORY, the committee UNEQUIVOCALLY favors 1 loss P5 champs in the CFP. That’s not me wanting that to happen or supporting/agreeing with their logic, that’s me seeing them take USC over UT because they’ve ALWAYS done it.
 
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#1,155
#1,155
AthensVol2007 said:
No I haven’t moved the goal post. Your scenario of opening at #1 and only having one loss aren’t the only two criteria that decided said team staying. Those said teams ALSO played for their conference title, won their conference title or were chosen over a TWO loss team; not another 1 loss team who was conference champ. Again, that’s you basing this in a vacuum. We’re jockeying for 2 spots with multiple teams, I don’t get why the seed is important. You’re stalwartly assuming TCU is still behind us come Tuesday. If they’re not, then I don’t see a path for us to jump them if they win out as their competition improves and ours weakens. I don’t know why you’re so hung up on them being stuck in a certain slot if chalk holds, simply because they were slotted behind Bama last week. I believe the top 4 come Tuesday are the 4 remaining undefeated teams. If that’s the case your whole theory is blown up. The problem is you’re dug in and adamant that won’t be the case come Tuesday simply because you said so.
Click to expand...

When we finish 11-1, we will be the #3 seed in the playoff. Star this.
 
#1,156
#1,156
JMSqb11 said:
You’re making their playoff scenarios a head to head with Tennessee. For some reason you think it’s LsU or Tennessee for the playoff. This is a dumb position to have. LSU and Tennessee are two teams and the playoff has 4 spots. Not sure the mental confusion or why people are making it out as LsU or Tennessee can go to playoff but not both.
Click to expand...

Because the chance that LSU and TN both making the playoffs is so small it’s not worth talking about.
 
#1,158
#1,158
JMSqb11 said:
So now you have to expand / change the goal post to fit your agenda. I have made a very clear data point... Whoever debuts at the #1 rank for CFP and has 0 or 1 loss at the end of the season goes on to make the playoff. For some reason, you can't accept that and have to add to the data point to kneecap Tennessee's candidacy.. Very weird thing to do for a Vol Fan. At the end of the day, we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff regardless of anyone else. TCU (Big 12), Oregon/USC (PAC 12) and now Clemson (ACC) are all jockeying for the fourth and final playoff spot. Tennessee is setup to win out and claim the 3 spot. The only way i would accept not getting the 3 spot is if UGA loses in Atlanta and drops to the 2 or 3 seed and we drop to 4 so the CFP will avoid a SEC vs SEC final.

As a supposed Vol Fan, you should be ecstatic for Tennessee. As a supposed TCU fan, you should be excited Bama and Clemson lost.

This failed understanding by many is amazing. Tennessee is competing for the 3 seed. TCU, and the other 1 loss champs would be competing for the 4 seed. This notion that Tennessee is getting in would only be the 4 seed is laughable. And yes history would point to the CFP wanting to avoid a SEC vs SEC semi....

Have a good evening.
Click to expand...

You act like we are automatically in if we win out and it doesn’t matter what other teams do and you are wrong. But keep on thinking you are right.
 
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#1,159
#1,159
You all do realize that one conference ALWAYS gets left out of the mix. And when there are 2 SEC schools, two conferences are left out of the mix. Both UGA and Bama got in last year because they were both considered to be better than the conference champs that were left behind.

The only teams that have an opportunity for the CFP from the SEC are UGA and Tennessee and possibly Ole Miss if somehow LSU loses a game and Ole Miss wins out including beating UGA in the championship game.

UGA winning out, as much as I hate that, is better for Tennessee. They would maintain the number 1 spot and if Tennessee wins out with the only loss 14 points to the number 1 team on the road is a good argument among the teams that will have 1 loss.
 
#1,160
#1,160
JMSqb11 said:
When we finish 11-1, we will be the #3 seed in the playoff. Star this.
Click to expand...
What's up squib ole buddy? Some things never change. 😀

I've taken a screenshot of all 18 posts of your guarantee.

We've got a good shot but it's in no way a guarantee.

I can honestly say I hope I can delete them all without ever having to use them.
 
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#1,161
#1,161
BigOrangeTrain said:
You act like we are automatically in if we win out and it doesn’t matter what other teams do and you are wrong. But keep on thinking you are right.
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I'm saying.... If we finish 11-1, we will be in the playoff and the 3 seed. Star it.
 
#1,162
#1,162
AthensVol2007 said:
It’s not about fandom, it’s about being rational and taking orange blinders off and putting myself in the mindset of the committee. Based on HISTORY, the committee UNEQUIVOCALLY favors 1 loss P5 champs in the CFP. That’s not me wanting that to happen or supporting/agreeing with their logic, that’s me seeing them take USC over UT because they’ve ALWAYS done it.
Click to expand...

It looks like they favor that because most times the champs have 1 loss or less.
 
#1,163
#1,163
Behr said:
What's up squib ole buddy? Some things never change. 😀

I've taken a screenshot of all 18 posts of your guarantee.

We've got a good shot but it's in no way a guarantee.

I can honestly say I hope I can delete them all without ever having to use them.
Click to expand...

Just trying to catch your all time post count.

PS- hope you are doing well pal. Been a minute. #GoVols
 
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#1,164
#1,164
BigOrangeTrain said:
You act like we are automatically in if we win out and it doesn’t matter what other teams do and you are wrong. But keep on thinking you are right.
Click to expand...
Yeah you're wrong too. A 2 loss LSU SEC champ doesn't get in. Committee made that clear and I heard no BOT clause.

No need to respond, that's all that has to be said.

Have a good night.
 
#1,165
#1,165
Were any of you who are debating alive in 1998? We were arguing for a berth that year - in 2022 we seem to be arguing why we shouldn't have a berth. Amazing!!
 
#1,170
#1,170
ptgrbn said:
LSU now considers themselves automatic on the RANt for the SEC championship berth. Also now saying they would win if they played us again. Petty scared GA fans piling on as expected. GA now replaces AL as most paranoid insecure fan base in college football. I love it! Lets win out one game at a time and bring this thing home!!
Click to expand...

In retrospect, UGA knows (1) our defense shut them down in the second half and (2) adjustments can be made next time. They also know it is very difficult to beat a good team twice. They don't want to play us again this year.
 
#1,171
#1,171
JMSqb11 said:
When we finish 11-1, we will be the #3 seed in the playoff. Star this.
Click to expand...

No I won’t star it unless you say if the following results happen we’re still in at 11-1. Because this is what I’m arguing would keep us out.

USC = 12-1 PAC Champ
UGA = 13-0 SEC Champ
OSU/UM = 13-0 B1G Champ
TCU = 13-0 B12 Champ

Or
USC 12-1 champ
UGA 12-1 runner-up
OSU/UM 13-0 champ
TCU 13-0 champ


You can’t say simply if we go 11-1 we’re in, cause a **** ton can happen between now and then and you can say “see I told you”, when it had nothing to do with us but what dominoes fell around us. If any of TCU, UM/OSU lose and are still conference champs and/or Oregon wins the PAC-12 all bets are off. I’m not betting on vaguely, undefined scenarios.

We simply disagree that IF my first scenario up top happens that UT is still in.
 
#1,172
#1,172
AthensVol2007 said:
No I won’t star it unless you say if the following results happen we’re still in at 11-1. Because this is what I’m arguing would keep us out.

USC = 12-1 PAC Champ
UGA = 13-0 SEC Champ
OSU/UM = 13-0 B1G Champ
TCU = 13-0 B12 Champ

Or
USC 12-1 champ
UGA 12-1 runner-up
OSU/UM 13-0 champ
TCU 13-0 champ


You can’t say simply if we go 11-1 we’re in, cause a **** ton can happen between now and then and you can say “see I told you”, when it had nothing to do with us but what dominoes fell around us. If any of TCU, UM/OSU lose and are still conference champs and/or Oregon wins the PAC-12 all bets are off. I’m not betting on vaguely, undefined scenarios.

We simply disagree that IF my first scenario up top happens that UT is still in.
Click to expand...

I can defiantly say that if we go 11-1, we will be in the playoff. I’m even doubling down on being the #3….

We do not need any help to make the playoff after last night (Clemson and Bama)…..

Star this post.
 
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#1,173
#1,173
USC's loss was to Utah who lost to Florida who quite honestly is not very good this year.

And USC still have to play at UCLA and has Notre Dame on the schedule. They will also have to play Oregon if they win out. If they win out and beat Oregon in the same manner that UGA beat Oregon - then the case is probably there for them even though they lost to a team that lost to Florida.

It is those losses to the two SEC schools, Florida and UGA that is a problem for the PAC 10. That was the chance to make a statement - they didn't.
 
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#1,174
#1,174
I’m always amazed at threads like this. Who has the time to keep up or even think about reading all these posts?!?!
 
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