We are still very much alive for the playoff if we stay inside the Top 5 come Tuesday with new weekly rankings. Outside the Top 5, I feel very confident saying we are toast.
Almost, the answer is that, plus needing one of Clemson or TCU to lose one game. No chance they don't put in an undefeated conference champion over a 1 loss non-conference champ.
Clemson needs to lose, Bama needs another lose. Potentially a TCU loss. Even if all that happens we we'd still have to play Georgia again to win a championship. It's been a nice season but unfortunately all we get now is a chance at 11-1.