CFP Scenarios (merged)

[JMSqb11]

View attachment 511363

Do you do like that ass-out hug? Where you like, you hug each other like this and your ass sticks out cause you're trying not to get too close or do you just go right in and kiss them on the lips or don't kiss them at all? It's very difficult trying to read the situation. And all the while you're just really wondering are we gonna get hopped up enough to make some bad decisions? Perhaps play a little game called "just the tip". Just for a second, just to see how it feels. Or, ouch, ouch you're on my hair.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

While UGA vs Tennessee in Atlanta would be ratings extravaganza, I do not see the CFP putting two SEC teams in a semi. I think if UGA goes 13-0, Tennessee is the 3 seed. UGA loses in Atlanta, Tennessee is the 4 seed.

I hope you are right. I would love to get a shot at THE OSU.

 

[Orangeslice13]

Do you do like that ass-out hug? Where you like, you hug each other like this and your ass sticks out cause you're trying not to get too close or do you just go right in and kiss them on the lips or don't kiss them at all? It's very difficult trying to read the situation. And all the while you're just really wondering are we gonna get hopped up enough to make some bad decisions? Perhaps play a little game called "just the tip". Just for a second, just to see how it feels. Or, ouch, ouch you're on my hair.

I think we should probably win the next 3 convincingly or it won’t matter

 

[VolCalls]

anyone who the beats the number one team in the country for the sec conference championship will be in the playoffs. Tennessee got exposed and has been playing with house money all year. They barely escaped three games but it finally caught up with them. The game wasn't even close yesterday. Tennessee was manhandled on both sides of the ball and it could've been a lot worse but Georgia win the clock management know the second half and only threw 4 passes. The entire college football world saw that game yesterday including the playoff committee members. The win against Alabama is not looking so good nor is the win against Florida or Pitt.

Wrong. If LSU wins the SEC they will be on the outside looking in, just like Penn State was in 2016 when they won the Big Ten but had two losses.

 

[Jhilly05]

LSU win tonight. Clemson and TCU loss at some point

2/3 of the way there! Let's go!

 

[Vol865]

I agree Oregon got murdered by Georgia, no question of that. However, I do believe a 1 loss Oregon or USC team gets a playoff spot. The PAC is a lot stronger this year than it has been in recent years. A two loss LSU team and a one loss GA team are certainly valid playoff contenders. I certainly do not believe a 2 loss LSU team should get in over a one loss PAC team this year.

It's a conversation that I'm sure will be had many times and maybe for no reason. Nothing guarantees TCU will be undefeated, LSU will beat UGA or even a one loss PAC-12 team. UGA will probably go undefeated.

 

[WillisWG]

I guarantee come next week we're no better than #8. Book it. We got exposed today.

Don't give up your day job!

 

[Andrew8210]

If Tennessee clobbers the remaining teams and finishes 11-1 I think Tennessee is almost certainly going to be in the playoff. If they win the remaining games but don't look that great, then it may be a little more difficult.

 

[AthensVol2007]

Who said anything about an undefeated P5 champ being left out? And why do you have have to answer my question with a question? Literally no one has said 13-0 TCU would be left out of the playoff after last night's games aka Clemson and Bama losing....

Last nights games are irrelevant. An undefeated TCU champ was NEVER being left out, which you argued ad nauseam they would IF all your other scenarios held.
Clemson undefeated champ = in
OSU/UM winner undefeated champ = in
TCU undefeated champ = in
SEC champ = in
SEC champ loser and PAC 12 champ (with 1 loss) were the 2 outs.

 

[JMSqb11]

Last nights games are irrelevant. An undefeated TCU champ was NEVER being left out, which you argued ad nauseam they would IF all your other scenarios held.
Clemson undefeated champ = in
OSU/UM winner undefeated champ = in
TCU undefeated champ = in
SEC champ = in
SEC champ loser and PAC 12 champ (with 1 loss) were the 2 outs.

Last nights game we very much relevant. Clemson and Bama losing was very beneficial for TCU. They now don’t have to worry about missing playoff if they go 13-0 since Tennessee has a spot locked up. I know you TCU fan boys were sweating it out. Now you don’t have to

 

[AthensVol2007]

Last nights game we very much relevant. Clemson and Bama losing was very beneficial for TCU. They now don’t have to worry about missing playoff if they go 13-0 since Tennessee has a spot locked up. I know you TCU fan boys were sweating it out. Now you don’t have to

Keep telling yourself an undefeated P5 champ would be sweating selection Sunday. I don’t care who the team is, I’m not partial to TCU. If USC had stopped a 2 pt conversion at Utah the conversation would be directed at them. We saw what the committed did with Clemson despite close wins. They couldn’t put away a 3 loss Wake team, an offensively anemic NCSU or a 3 loss Cuse team, yet they were #4. Despite by your criteria, trailing late in 2 of those; one on the road and one at home (same as TCU). Again, the name is irrelevant, it’s the fact that an undefeated P5 champ has never been and never will be left out. Many debated if the 2014 FSU team was truly worthy despite being undefeated when they won their division and the overall title by 3 games, i.e. the ACC was terribly weak and they won 7 games by a combined 30 pts. We all knew they were weak (same as TCU may be) but at the end of the day it didn’t matter. They were a P5 undefeated champion.

Those 7 close opponents they beat by an avg of 4.25 PPG went:
7-6
10-3
8-5
6-7
7-6
7-5
11-3

 

[Dougie_D]

Several years back, Penn State won the B1G but Ohio State went to the playoffs and Penn State stayed home. I could see the same thing happening to LSU.

Was Ohio st undefeated and number 1 at that time?

 

[VAVol85]

I think the order for invitations to the CFP will go like this:
Undefeated P5 teams (UGA and the Big Ten Champion)
One-loss conference champions (possibilities: USC/UCLA/Oregon, TCU, probably too much of a climb for NC/Clemson)
One-loss teams with particularly good resumes (UT)

We could easily get kicked to the side for a one-loss conference champion from the Big-12 or the Pac-12. We need to become Texas and Baylor fans and hope for mayhem in the Pac 12.

 

[I4Vols]

some playoff thoughts that bug me... I think I need to root for
- USC over UCLA
- Notre Dame big over USC
- USC over Oregon (really, I need to push for USC twice, that's painful)
- bama over the Rebels (really bugs me to ever push for bama)
- the other UT over TCU and for good measure Baylor and/or Iowa St over TCU
- OSU to clobber Michigan (man, being for either of these two is painful)
- dawgs to clobber LSU in the SEC Champ (they ain't so easy to root for either)
- Just for good measure... NC St and/or Wake over UNC and Clemson loses in the ACC Champ game

That's a lot of hopes. Did I miss something?
Probably shouldn't swear too much the rest of the season as the Big Guy Upstairs might push back.

If it doesn't work out... UT vs UT in the Sugar Bowl. Great TV game, big money, big fan bases, big party, big SEC look into the future, Big Orange.
Scary, with their qb & running back. Over/under might need an extra digit.

 

[JMSqb11]

Keep telling yourself an undefeated P5 champ would be sweating selection Sunday. I don’t care who the team is, I’m not partial to TCU. If USC had stopped a 2 pt conversion at Utah the conversation would be directed at them. We saw what the committed did with Clemson despite close wins. They couldn’t put away a 3 loss Wake team, an offensively anemic NCSU or a 3 loss Cuse team, yet they were #4. Despite by your criteria, trailing late in 2 of those; one on the road and one at home (same as TCU). Again, the name is irrelevant, it’s the fact that an undefeated P5 champ has never been and never will be left out. Many debated if the 2014 FSU team was truly worthy despite being undefeated when they won their division and the overall title by 3 games, i.e. the ACC was terribly weak and they won 7 games by a combined 30 pts. We all knew they were weak (same as TCU may be) but at the end of the day it didn’t matter. They were a P5 undefeated champion.

Those 7 close opponents they beat by an avg of 4.25 PPG went:
7-6
10-3
8-5
6-7
7-6
7-5
11-3

No team who has debuted at #1 in the initial rankings has gone into selection day with 0 or 1 losses and missed the playoffs. If you think for some reason we would not move up the rankings from 4 to 3 at 11-1 after Michigan and Ohio State play, you are literally arguing against history. But all you fanboys last night said precedent matters, yet here you are bucking precedent..... So why is bucking precedent okay for your argument, but not mine?

Tell me a team that has debuted #1 in the first CFP rankings of the season that has missed the playoff with 0 or 1 losses? You can't.... Tennessee goes 11-1, we are locked into the playoff. Not sure why you are getting worked up about that. Clemson and Bama losing this weekend only reinforces the fact. My argument last night was that TCU and Clemson, if both undefeated, would be competing for the same playoff spot. Tennessee at 11-1 will be the #3 seed and the #4 seed will be a 1 loss conference champ or 13-0 TCU.....

And are you really comparing a national brand in Florida State who was defending title team to TCU? That is the whole point. The media is googoo gaga over TCU getting "slighted" at #7, while the CFP made it clear they don't respect TCU's record up to this point.

But hey, keep bucking precedent to fit your narrative.

 

[Dougie_D]

We will be #3 if UGA goes 13-0, winning in Atlanta. We will be #4 if UGA loses in Atlanta. CFP won't make SEC vs SEC semifinal.

So LSU who beats GA , who becomes SEC champ doesn’t get in? No way that’s happening.
GA would have to lose to KY first , then lose to LSU to become 11-2 and then we get 4 spot.

 

[AthensVol2007]

I think the order for invitations to the CFP will go like this:
Undefeated P5 teams (UGA and the Big Ten Champion)
One-loss conference champions (possibilities: USC/UCLA/Oregon, TCU, probably too much of a climb for NC/Clemson)
One-loss teams with particularly good resumes (UT)

We could easily get kicked to the side for a one-loss conference champion from the Big-12 or the Pac-12. We need to become Texas and Baylor fans and hope for mayhem in the Pac 12.

Agree with chaos. If USC wins the PAC-12 with 1 loss I see no way they’re not in. Our best hope for the PAC 12 is UCLA to win and secondly Oregon and hope the committee values a 14 pt loss on the road higher than a 46 pt neutral site loss to a common opponent BUT an undefeated conference slate and P5 championship. I agree the ACC is out, Clemson’s loss is too lopsided as is UNC’s to ND plus the scare from App St.

 

[JMSqb11]

Several years back, Penn State won the B1G but Ohio State went to the playoffs and Penn State stayed home. I could see the same thing happening to LSU.

Penn State had an awful loss to Pittsburgh. Also OSU had 3 top ten wins that year too while PSU only had 1 (vs OSU). LSU's resumê this year if they won out and finished 11-2 would be much stronger.

Penn State debuted at #12 after all their bigger opponents were already played. LSU appeared at #10 with a game vs #6, which they won, and an impending game vs #1 in Atlanta. That is why I think there is a difference. Penn State played #6 Wisconsin. For LSU to have any shot, they need to get inside the top 6 with this week's rankings.

 

[Dougie_D]

I think the order for invitations to the CFP will go like this:
Undefeated P5 teams (UGA and the Big Ten Champion)
One-loss conference champions (possibilities: USC/UCLA/Oregon, TCU, probably too much of a climb for NC/Clemson)
One-loss teams with particularly good resumes (UT)

We could easily get kicked to the side for a one-loss conference champion from the Big-12 or the Pac-12. We need to become Texas and Baylor fans and hope for mayhem in the Pac 12.

You are right. Actually if you want to root for anything, we root for ALL the undefeated teams to lose BEFORE the Champ games.

 

[JMSqb11]

So LSU who beats GA , who becomes SEC champ doesn’t get in? No way that’s happening.
GA would have to lose to KY first , then lose to LSU to become 11-2 and then we get 4 spot.

If TCU is 13-0, LSU would get left out. I do think there is argument for 11-2 LSU in the playoff if they win out, but that argument is null and void with an undefeated TCU out there. I do not think Tennessee would be left out of the playoff if LSU got in. I just think it would be 3 SEC teams and Ohio State / Michigan.

If at season's end you have 11-2 LSU, 12-1 Oregon, 12-1 TCU, 12-1 Clemson, I think LSU has legit shot.....They would eliminate oregon because of common opponent UGA win vs UGA loss. Clemson's loss to ND is worse than a 1 point loss to FSU and blowout vs UT (a playoff team).... TCU only has 2 and 3 loss teams on their schedule.. Them getting a loss means they fall out of top 10.

 

[AthensVol2007]

No team who has debuted at #1 in the initial rankings has gone into selection day with 0 or 1 losses and missed the playoffs. If you think for some reason we would not move up the rankings from 4 to 3 at 11-1 after Michigan and Ohio State play, you are literally arguing against history. But all you fanboys last night said precedent matters, yet here you are bucking precedent..... So why is bucking precedent okay for your argument, but not mine?

Tell me a team that has debuted #1 in the first CFP rankings of the season that has missed the playoff with 0 or 1 losses? You can't.... Tennessee goes 11-1, we are locked into the playoff. Not sure why you are getting worked up about that. Clemson and Bama losing this weekend only reinforces the fact. My argument last night was that TCU and Clemson, if both undefeated, would be competing for the same playoff spot. Tennessee at 11-1 will be the #3 seed and the #4 seed will be a 1 loss conference champ or 13-0 TCU.....

And are you really comparing a national brand in Florida State who was defending title team to TCU? That is the whole point. The media is googoo gaga over TCU getting "slighted" at #7, while the CFP made it clear they don't respect TCU's record up to this point.

But hey, keep bucking precedent to fit your narrative.

Precedent is bucked because a 1 loss non-conference champ has NEVER gotten in over an UNDEFEATED P5 champ. The only times a team has gotten in the CFB with 1 loss, without even playing for their conference championship was Bama in 2017 because OSU and USC (P5 champs) had 2 losses and Ohio State in 2016 because PSU (P5 champ) had 2 losses (despite beating OSU). The only time this could’ve happened was 2014 had the committee taking Baylor/TCU over FSU but even then both had 1 loss and were still co-champs, so that’s not the same scenario as UT. History is irrelevant if the final scenarios aren’t the same. You’re arguing in a vacuum, and failing to recognize or at minimum acknowledge the nuance differences between this season and past scenarios.

 

[JMSqb11]

Precedent is bucked because a 1 loss non-conference champ has NEVER gotten in over an UNDEFEATED P5 champ. The only times a team has gotten in the CFB with 1 loss, without even playing for their conference championship was Bama in 2017 because OSU and USC (P5 champs) had 2 losses and Ohio State in 2016 because PSU (P5 champ) had 2 losses (despite beating OSU). The only time this could’ve happened was 2014 had the committee taking Baylor/TCU over FSU but even then both had 1 loss and were still co-champs, so that’s not the same scenario as UT. History is irrelevant if the final scenarios aren’t the same. You’re arguing in a vacuum, and failing to recognize or at minimum acknowledge the nuance differences between this season and past scenarios.

We've never had that scenario play out. There has never been a situation where the choice for a final spot is between a 13-0 P5 Champ and the team who debuted #1 in first rankings with 1 loss... Since history tells a team who debuted #1 in the rankings always goes to the playoff with 0 or 1 losses, you have to honor that.

Tennessee will be in the playoff if they finish 11-1. You can argue that, but you are living in fantasy world.

This is false. If the Big 12 would have scheduled a conference title game, they would have gotten in. They refused to do a conference title game and the CPF punished them for that. Big 12 thought they could name co champs and sneak a team in..... CFP told them to kick rocks.

 

[Andrew8210]

We've never had that scenario play out. There has never been a situation where the choice for a final spot is between a 13-0 P5 Champ and the team who debuted #1 in first rankings with 1 loss... Since history tells a team who debuted #1 in the rankings always goes to the playoff with 0 or 1 losses, you have to honor that.

Tennessee will be in the playoff if they finish 11-1. You can argue that, but you are living in fantasy world.

This is false. If the Big 12 would have scheduled a conference title game, they would have gotten in. They refused to do a conference title game and the CPF punished them for that. Big 12 thought they could name co champs and sneak a team in..... CFP told them to kick rocks.

I still think it needs to be 3 convincing wins. If Tennessee wins the final 3 games but struggles to win each game i'm not sure.

 

[JMSqb11]

Precedent is bucked because a 1 loss non-conference champ has NEVER gotten in over an UNDEFEATED P5 champ. The only times a team has gotten in the CFB with 1 loss, without even playing for their conference championship was Bama in 2017 because OSU and USC (P5 champs) had 2 losses and Ohio State in 2016 because PSU (P5 champ) had 2 losses (despite beating OSU). The only time this could’ve happened was 2014 had the committee taking Baylor/TCU over FSU but even then both had 1 loss and were still co-champs, so that’s not the same scenario as UT. History is irrelevant if the final scenarios aren’t the same. You’re arguing in a vacuum, and failing to recognize or at minimum acknowledge the nuance differences between this season and past scenarios.

You fail to comprehend that Tennessee is a playoff lock at #3 seed with an 11-1 finish.... Right now, TCU even at 13-0, would be the 4th seed. The CFP made a statement about TCU by putting 1 loss Bama in front of them. They aren't going to leap frog TCU over us.... Regardless, your infatuation with the idea that TCU and Tennessee are battling for the same playoff spot is baffling. Tennessee's ceiling for seeding is #3. TCU's is #4.

If TCU goes 13-0, good for them, but they would be the 4 seed and we would be the 3 seed if finishing 11-1. TCU is literally last year's Cincy with slightly better opponents. Congrats on going undefeated, but an undefeated record from a conference closer to the AAC than the SEC/Big Ten doesn't secure you a 3 seed.

 

[JMSqb11]

I still think it needs to be 3 convincing wins. If Tennessee wins the final 3 games but struggles to win each game i'm not sure.

Of course. If they go back to hanging 45-52 points a game in the final 3, we will be fine and likely in the top 3 after Michigan and Ohio State play.