CFP Scenarios (merged)

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

See you won’t commit to an actual scenario. I agree we’re in at 11-1 because I don’t TCU goes undefeated and USC won’t win the PAC-12. But we’re not in simply by virtue of being 11-1 and you know it, that’s why you’re playing semantics. Can you definitively say that in the following scenario we’re still in? If so what does it for you? A road win over a 3 loss LSU team and a home win over a 2-3 loss Bama team outweigh 3 straight top 25 wins including a conference title game?

12-1 PAC-12 champ
13-0 Big 12 champ
13-0 SEC champ
13-0 B1G champ

volfan102455 · Nov 6, 2022

Then you have the Big12. Correction - one Big 12 team did beat an SEC team. I read the score wrong. LOL

But the point is - SEC is regarded higher because they win a lot of the in season matches against the conferences that will play them.

TheOrange&White · Nov 6, 2022

For the sake of discussion, let's assume a few things:

1) Oregon and USC win out and play in the Pac-12 championship
2) Ohio St. and Michigan win out and play in the Big 10 championship so the only loss either has is their head-to-head
3) TCU loses to Texas and/or Baylor
4) GA wins out incl. the SEC title
5) We win our remaining games convincingly

The playoff committee would obviously put GA at 1. The Big 10 champ is in also. My questions are:
1) Say Ohio St. beats Michigan and goes on to win the Big 10. Michigan would be in the same situation as us: a one loss team with that loss to the conference champion.
--Would the committee put in two Big 10 teams instead of two SEC teams?
--Would we get the nod since our loss is to the #1 team who has been AP #1 almost all season and theirs is to the #2/#3 team who has a worse resume?

2) If they do put in two Big 10 teams, then there's one spot left. Us and Oregon lost to the same team. Theirs looks worse since it was at a neutral sight and by a larger margin, but they have the conference championship.
--Would they put us in over them?
--Or if USC won would they value a one-loss conference champion more even with the loss to Utah?

JMSqb11 · Nov 6, 2022

AthensVol2007 said:

I don't have to commit to a scenario. I'm literally saying after last night, we control our own destiny....

Clemson losing means that is one less conference that can have an undefeated champ and that brings the current max total to 3 conferences....
Bama losing means that that currently the SEC West Team will have 2 losses which also means a West Team in Atlanta doesn't mean an automatic playoff spot

We got help albeit I didn't see Bama or Clemson losing last night, but they did.

There is no remaining scenario outside of Tennessee losing a game where we miss the playoff.

11-1 we are in the playoff as the 3 seed. If TCU is to win out, they would be the 4th.

If TCU drops a game, that leaves two conferences max that can have an undefeated champ.... At that point, we are almost a near guarantee to be the 3 seed with the ACC, Big 12, and PAC12 battling it out for the final spot.

Tennessee will not get penalized for winning their remaining 3 games when 2 teams in front of them play head to head and that loser will drop out of the top 5...

It is a guarantee that Michigan vs Ohio State will produce a losing team that will fall out of the Top 4. You can say that is the "help" we need, but a winner and loser is certain as there are no ties.

As long as we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff. STAR THIS

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

volfan102455 said:

Mizzou was blasted by KSU.

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

JMSqb11 said:

I don't have to commit to a scenario. I'm literally saying after last night, we control our own destiny....

Clemson losing means that is one less conference that can have an undefeated champ and that brings the current max total to 3 conferences....
Bama losing means that that currently the SEC West Team will have 2 losses which also means a West Team in Atlanta doesn't mean an automatic playoff spot

We got help albeit I didn't see Bama or Clemson losing last night, but they did.

There is no remaining scenario outside of Tennessee losing a game where we miss the playoff.

11-1 we are in the playoff as the 3 seed. If TCU is to win out, they would be the 4th.

If TCU drops a game, that leaves two conferences max that can have an undefeated champ.... At that point, we are almost a near guarantee to be the 3 seed with the ACC, Big 12, and PAC12 battling it out for the final spot.

Tennessee will not get penalized for winning their remaining 3 games when 2 teams in front of them play head to head and that loser will drop out of the top 5...

It is a guarantee that Michigan vs Ohio State will produce a losing team that will fall out of the Top 4. You can say that is the "help" we need, but a winner and loser is certain as there are no ties.

As long as we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff. STAR THIS

I’m done arguing with you cause you know the scenario I gave puts your statement in peril. You keep talking about UM/OSU playing their way out. USC can and will play their way in if they win out. UT will NOT go ahead of a 1-loss PAC-12 team named USC, if the other undefeated P5’s win out. The payoff will irrefutably be:
USC
UGA
TCU
Ohio State

DownNDirty · Nov 6, 2022

volfan102455 said:

I want them to get in but I was pointing out why those that think 11-1 automatically gets us in is insane IMO. I may be one of the most tenured VN forum members here - since 2004 - but I mostly lurk. I was 18 during our National Championship season and remember very well that there was a chance that we weren't going to be one of the teams vying for the National Championship until losses by UCLA and Kansas State secured our spot. There was a lot of fear that UCLA and KSU would both jump over UT in the final rankings had they both stayed undefeated the final week of the year. KSU got clipped in 2 OTs vs Texas A&M and UCLA lost by 4 to Miami.

JMSqb11 · Nov 6, 2022

AthensVol2007 said:

11-1 Tennessee is in the playoff. After last night's "scenario" we don't need anymore help. You can think a 12-1 ACC or PAC12 champ would get a bump over us, but that isn't the case.

STAR THIS POST. 11-1 TENNESSEE GOES TO PLAYOFF.

GordonC · Nov 6, 2022

DownNDirty said:

I want them to get in but I was pointing out why those that think 11-1 automatically gets us in is insane IMO. I may be one of the most tenured VN forum members here - since 2004 - but I mostly lurk. I was 18 during our National Championship season and remember very well that there was a chance that we weren't going to be one of the teams vying for the National Championship until losses by UCLA and Kansas State secured our spot. There was a lot of fear that UCLA and KSU would both jump over UT in the final rankings had they both stayed undefeated the final week of the year. KSU got clipped in 2 OTs vs Texas A&M and UCLA lost by 4 to Miami.

If you were 18 in 1998, then you ain't Adrian Street (your avi) or Dutch Mantel (your username), but your memory's good.

Sudden Impact · Nov 6, 2022

DownNDirty said:

Just because you keep repeating the same thing doesn't make it so IMO. I saw you said that you'd bet anything they make the Playoff if they go 11-1 but you'd be playing with fire. Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

Just because the initial #1 team has always made it with 0 or 1 loss doesn't have anything to do with this year and this situation. There's an old saying, "there's a first time for everything." I want UT to make the CFP as much as any other diehard Vols fan but I would DEFINITELY temper your expectations on making the playoff. The committee can do whatever they want and on a whim. If TCU wins at Texas, at Baylor, then beats Iowa State and wins in their title game they will be the #3 seed. Their resume will continue to improve. We are playing the sisters of the blind and miserable to end our year which won't move the needle at all. Tennessee has to win big in all 3 remaining games and have a lot of chaos. You are certainly free to have your opinion but I think you are about as wrong as you can be if your assessment is that UT makes the CFP at 11-1 no matter what else happens. We need a lot of help.

Tennessee need some things to happen but not a lot of things.
They will be fine and they may make it in at a 3 or 4 position.
I think Oregon will represent the PAC 12 or the PAC 12 will be a feeding fest.
Ohio State the B10
Georgia the SEC
TCU will lose to Baylor or Texas or Title game
Clemson is done and NC may catch them.
Tennessee wins out. If they do they will be in as one of the Top 4.

There are alot of simulators on the web of the CFP and you can play with them. Tennessee odds actually increased 2 percentage points with the loss to GA. Go Figure. A lot of Football to be played.

SockeyeVol · Nov 6, 2022

AthensVol2007 said:

Agreed that TN is not a lock to get in if they simply make it to 11-1. They must be 11-1 to make it, but that alone does not guarantee it.

Don't forget about the possibility of two Big-10 schools too, if Michigan goes 11-1 and puts up a good fight against Oh State on the road on the last game of the season. They already have a stronger FPI than TN, a much stronger remaining schedule, and selection committees are always susceptible to recency bias.

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

I

JMSqb11 said:

I didn’t simply say a 1-loss ACC or PAC-12 champ, I said a specific team. There’s a difference, the difference matters, you know it and therefore, you’re intentionally twisting my debated position. USC is the ONLY 12-1 champ guaranteed to be in over us because of how their loss unfolded, to whom it unfolded to and where it unfolded.

BJWeeks · Nov 6, 2022

If Alabama was #1 and lost to #3 Georgia then they would only drop to #3. That is a fact. But Tennessee will get dropped to 5 or 6 is an outrage

DonDiego · Nov 6, 2022

Michigan and OSU have a regular season game

JMSqb11 · Nov 6, 2022

AthensVol2007 said:

Once again take my statement... A 12-1 ACC team, this includes Clemson and North Carolina, a 13-0 or 12-1 Big 12 team, TCU, or 12-1 PAC12 team, this includes Oregon, USC, and I think UCLA (7-1?), do not impact Tennessee's playoff chances as long as Tennessee finishes 11-1.

One of those 3 conferences will have a champion that makes the playoff. However, only one of the three will be represented as Tennessee at 11-1 will be in the playoff.

STAR THIS!

Enki_Amenra · Nov 6, 2022

TheOrange&White said:

For the sake of discussion, let's assume a few things:

1) Oregon and USC win out and play in the Pac-12 championship
2) Ohio St. and Michigan win out and play in the Big 10 championship
3) TCU loses to Texas and/or Baylor
4) GA wins out incl. the SEC title
5) We win our remaining games convincingly

The playoff committee would obviously put GA at 1. The Big 10 champ is in also. My questions are:
1) If the Big 10 champ. game is competitive and a close loss, the loser would be in the same situation as us: a one loss team with that loss to the conference champion.
--Would the committee put in two Big 10 teams instead of two SEC teams?
--Would we get the nod since our loss is to the #1 team who has been AP #1 almost all season and theirs is to the #2/#3 team who has a worse resume?

2) If they do put in two Big 10 teams, then there's one spot left. Us and Oregon lost to the same team. Theirs looks worse since it was at a neutral sight and by a larger margin, but they have the conference championship.
--Would they put us in over them?
--Or if USC won would they value a one-loss conference champion more even with the loss to Utah?

TOSU and Michigan can't win out. . .

DownNDirty · Nov 6, 2022

GordonC said:

Just some men I admired haha. DownNDirty actually was an old dirt racing nickname and been my user names as far back as the old Usenet groups in the mid 90s.

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

JMSqb11 said:

Nobody is mentioning the ACC so stop wasting your time repeating that worthless drivel. You will be unceremoniously wrong, and the only person confused as to why, come selection Sunday if my scenario plays out. Luckily for you and all UT fans, I don’t think that scenario happens and therefore we wind up in the playoffs at 11-1 but it will be because of the outcomes of games beyond our control. HISTORY supports my specific and hypothetical yet very attainable scenario 100%.

volfan102455 · Nov 6, 2022

BJWeeks said:

Same was true last year for #1 UGA vs # 3 Bama - UGA was beat worst and still dropped only to 4.

ZZ13 · Nov 6, 2022

You must have missed the other threads on this. There are a whole bunch of posters that have already scientifically determined that Tennessee will blow out their last three opponents and is a lock for the playoffs, that TCU will lose, that a one loss ACC champ isn’t a threat to take our spot, that a one loss PAC-12 champ isn’t a threat to take our spot, that the loser of OSU/Michigan isn’t a threat to take our spot, that a one loss Ole Miss isn’t a threat to take our spot. So no need to really follow anymore football games. Just check back in on Dec 4 to see which team the committee has penciled in to play us in the first round of the playoffs.

Orange_Vol1321 · Nov 6, 2022

TheOrange&White said:

For the sake of discussion, let's assume a few things:

1) Oregon and USC win out and play in the Pac-12 championship
2) Ohio St. and Michigan win out and play in the Big 10 championship
3) TCU loses to Texas and/or Baylor
4) GA wins out incl. the SEC title
5) We win our remaining games convincingly

The playoff committee would obviously put GA at 1. The Big 10 champ is in also. My questions are:
1) If the Big 10 champ. game is competitive and a close loss, the loser would be in the same situation as us: a one loss team with that loss to the conference champion.
--Would the committee put in two Big 10 teams instead of two SEC teams?
--Would we get the nod since our loss is to the #1 team who has been AP #1 almost all season and theirs is to the #2/#3 team who has a worse resume?

2) If they do put in two Big 10 teams, then there's one spot left. Us and Oregon lost to the same team. Theirs looks worse since it was at a neutral sight and by a larger margin, but they have the conference championship.
--Would they put us in over them?
--Or if USC won would they value a one-loss conference champion more even with the loss to Utah?

We will be #5 Tuesday. We have to win out with no struggling. We should slide in to #4 after the UM vs OSU regular season game November 26.

AthensVol2007 · Nov 6, 2022

volfan102455 said:

The difference last year was it was the final poll and the Big 12, PAC 12 and ACC champs all had 2 losses or more. There was no way UGA deserved to be behind Baylor, Utah or Pitt at 12-1 and running roughshod through the SEC regular season.

TheOrange&White · Nov 6, 2022

DonDiego said:

Enki_Amenra said:

Y’all are right and I had a brain fart. I was thinking of the situation where if one of them beats Illinois(?) leaving one undefeated and the other with one loss. So a situation like us where one could get in without playing the conf. championship game.

TheOrange&White · Nov 6, 2022

And I know that Michigan plays Illinois in the regular season. But they could conceivably play them twice.

HalfullVol · Nov 6, 2022

This message board is the best.

Just imagine if we just patiently waited and let the season play out?

Thankful for all u overthinking, genius types.

CFP Scenarios (merged)

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