Will this finally settle the Manning - Brady debate?

#1,252
#1,252
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
Before Peyton came into the league, the game had never seen a qb as cerebral as Peyton (and I don’t think ever will again). Or a qb who has played the nfl qb position as cerebrally as Peyton. Not saying he’s the smartest or strongest qb, but the game had never had a qb like him before. He transcended the position. The preparation, the film study, recognizing defensive tendencies, opposing coach and player tendencies, prior to game day. He often had you beat before the other team even took the field.
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Joe Montana and Steve Young beg to differ.
 
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#1,253
#1,253
iluvsmesumdooley said:
People keep asking who the GOAT is - Brady or Manning - and I'm like over here thinking Reggie White or LT.
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Good point. The best argument for a GOAT, if there ever was one, would be for Lawrence Taylor imo. The guy single handily changed the was coaches had to coach an OL. And he made the pass rushing OLB famous.
 
#1,258
#1,258
BigOrangeTrain said:
Dude just stop with your incessant nonsense. Football is a team sport. Singling out an individual player is beyond stupid. You keeo doing it and you keep looking dumber and dumber.
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Well, you're definitely entitled to be wrong in your opinions. And like I said before, I can't help it if you can't READ.
The NFL might as well STOP giving out MVPS, recognizing offensive and defensive players of the year, and do away with the ALL-PRO teams. You comment is so idiotic that it would eliminate any recognition of any awards for excellence in ANY team sport. No Cy Young, No Hypesman (which wouldn't be a bad idea), No Butkus awards...NO ALL-SEC players.....yada...yada....yada....

PhoenixAZVol said:
You might as well remove all the qbs past Brady and Manning. They played when the nfl was a tackle league, you were allowed to hit the qb and the defense wasn’t completely crippled. You absolutely can’t compare the stats. The older qbs on the list threw the ball down the field a lot more and didn’t throw all of these short high percentage passes. The only reason brady has a lower int ratio is that he has primarily been a dink and dunk thrower. If you want more excel spreadsheets look up all time qb yards in the air vs yards after catch. Brady will be near the very bottom for % yards in air vs total yards. Dink and dunk offensive blocking schemes and possession receivers have benefitted Brady. If qbs of old had the same rules as today Montana would have killed it because he ran a similar offensive system. Manning has a much greater yards in the air. Brady has done well with the rules of today in a watere down sissified league but you can’t compare him against the old guys and he aint the goat. Nobody is
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Well, you guys always flap your gaps about Brady and his dink and dunk....."yards in air" nonsensical crap. It's just a stupid way to get around the obvious.

But the facts remain. Brady was sacked 1/20 passing attempts....Manning 1/33.... so much for your dink and dunk crap.
You would expect a QB running that kind of offense to be sacked LESS FREQUENTLY, not MORE!

Brady threw less INTS, threw more TDs, LESS pick 6's (even though he played in 13 more playoff games than Manning), and led more game-winning drives than Manning did by a 3/1 margin. These are all strictly OFFENSIVE STATS....
BUT if, as some of you have said with such confidence--that BRADY has had the SUPERIOR defensive teams all those years...and that is why Brady has had more success--then WHY has BRADY had to lead his teams on so many game winning drives? The FACTS ARE: Brady has had to lead the PATS to playoff wins with GAME WINNING DRIVES in 43% of their WINS... ELWAY 43%....MARINO 50%...FOUTS 100%...STABLER 43%....MONTANA 31%...MANNING 14%.

The MOST damaging stat to me is that MANNING had home-field advantage in his 1st game of the playoffs and could do no better than 6-6....and won ZERO of his 1st playoff games on the road.

And, in a hypothetical sense, if you needed a QB to bring you back on a GWD in the playoffs....MANNING would be one of the LAST QBS you would want at the helm.

BRADY = GOAT. And it ain't EVEN CLOSE.....
 
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MikeVol44 said:
But the facts remain. Brady was sacked 1/20 passing attempts....Manning 1/33.... so much for your dink and dunk crap.
You would expect a QB running that kind of offense to be sacked LESS FREQUENTLY, not MORE!
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Drawing a conclusion that he was sacked 1/20 attempts; therefore he does not do a lot of dink and dunks is an extreme reach. That's the problem with stats - people twist to fit their narrative and into meaning something they simply don't. All that means is he was sacked once every 20 attempts. Unless you reviewed every pass attempt and plotted how many were beyond 10 yards, you can't reach any conclusion on the sacks per pass attempt. That could mean he's got a great o-line, is excellent at avoiding the rush, generally releases the ball in less than 2 seconds per pass attempt or some combination of factors.

Both he and Peyton are/were excellent at check downs. Does that mean they are a dink and dunker, or are they very good at check-downs on their 3rd or 4th read?
 
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#1,260
It's fun to read the arguments for and against Brady as the GOAT. There are so many factors to consider and IMO impossible to ever settle this debate. Do you base the GOAT on stats, records or some combination? Nobody will ever agree. You can't deny Brady's success with 6 SB wins, but you also can't deny the brilliance of Peyton and the numbers he put up. I definitely believe Brady was fortunate to play for one team and coach his entire career. Oh yeah, and he is the best coach in the history of football (college or NFL). Would Brady have been successful for another team, absolutely? Would he have 6 SB victories, I doubt it as the Pats are the best ever at putting together a team as well as game planning and exploiting a team's weaknesses. Do the Pats have 6 SB's without Brady, probably not. Would Peyton have 6 or more SB victories if he played for the Pats, probably so but maybe not. It's impossible to say.

While I'm not a Brady fan, I give him credit for what he's accomplished and he will go down as one of the top players at that position. I also put Peyton at the top as well and I'm fine not declaring them, or anyone else as the GOAT because there is no way to definitively decide that.
 
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#1,261
jps2194 said:
Drawing a conclusion that he was sacked 1/20 attempts; therefore he does not do a lot of dink and dunks is an extreme reach. That's the problem with stats - people twist to fit their narrative and into meaning something they simply don't. All that means is he was sacked once every 20 attempts. Unless you reviewed every pass attempt and plotted how many were beyond 10 yards, you can't reach any conclusion on the sacks per pass attempt. That could mean he's got a great o-line, is excellent at avoiding the rush or generally releases the ball in less than 2 seconds per pass attempt or some combination of factors.

Both he and Peyton are/were excellent at check downs. Does that mean they are a dink and dunker, or are they very good at check-downs on their 3rd or 4th read?
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Yes, I agree with you. It can mean several things.

I've decided to compile the stats for myself since people throw out so many diverse opinions in an attempt to say that BRADY is not the GOAT.
I didn't care where the stats have taken me.....but the stats do PAINT an OVERALL, BIG PICTURE FRAMEWORK within which to COMPARE QB performance from OBJECTIVE origins.

However, you are correct in saying that people may SUBJECTIVELY interpret STATS with a personal bias. I'm trying hard NOT to do that.

A question--Why do you think the TD%; INT%; SACK %; and Passer Rating stats---etc...etc... exist?
Are they not for comparative purposes in an attempt to establish a "LEVEL" playing ground upon which statistical anomalies may be minimized in performance evaluations?


The sack % numbers do mean that Brady was 55% more likely to get sacked than PM every time he attempted a pass. 473 sacks in 9375 attempts (4.8 per 100) vs. 303 sacks in 9380 attempts. (3.1 per 100).
And I don't care WHY..... It is what it is.

We do know that the average time to get a sack is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 seconds.

May we agree then that Brady, on the average....per pass attempt, was 55% MORE LIKELY to have LESS TIME in the REGULAR SEASON to decide where and when to throw the ball???
Can we agree on that? If not....don't read further....if so, read on.

What was Brady able to accomplish with LESS TIME on the average per pass attempt in the REGULAR SEASON?

1. A higher TD/int ratio. 3/1. vs. 2/1 THAT'S 50% BETTER....
2. A virtually equal passer rating..... Brady = 97.6; Manning = 96.5
3. 50% fewer pic 6s per attempt when compared to Manning.... (Brady = 13/9375; Manning = 27/9380)
4. 67% fewer interceptions PER ATTEMPT when compared to Manning... Brady 1.8 per 100 attempts; Manning 2.7 per 100 attempts
5. a negligible difference (3.6%) in TDs throw per pass attempt... Brady =. 5.5 per 100 ; Manning = 5.7 per 100
6. a negligible difference (1.02%-- 65.3/64.0) in completion percentage....Brady = 64 per 100; Manning = 65.3 per 100 pass attempts

What OBJECTIVE conclusions may be drawn from that data?

What about the PLAYOFFS?

Well, It's quite interesting. The SACK % gap is closed to being virtually EQUAL! 4% for Brady vs. 3.7%. for Manning.
What about the performance data?

1. Brady's 4.6 TD% is 18% better than Manning's. 3.9;
2. Manning's 2.4 INT% is 14% HIGHER than Brady's--2.1;
3. Brady's TD/INT 2.1 ratio is 31% better than Manning's--1.6; which is actually DOWN from being 50% better in the REGULAR season;
4. Brady has the higher rating 90.5. vs. 87.4 for Manning; so that gap actually WIDENS in the playoffs in Brady's favor;
5. passing yds/game is virtually equal;
6. MANNING had 4 PIC 6'S in 27 games. versus. Brady only having 1 PIC 6 in 40 games; i.e., MANNING was 6.2 times more likely to throw a pic 6 per pass attempted than Brady;
7. Brady led his team to 13 game winning drives that led to 43% of the Patriots playoff wins--ALL of you Brady-haters out there let that sink in....Tom Brady had to lead his team to victory in the playoffs for almost half of their playoff wins with a game-winning drive.

While Manning was only able to lead his team to 2 GWD that led to 14% of his team's total playoff wins.

The STATS that I posted provided a very broad, big picture of reality within which to make some EQUAL performance evaluations.

Interestingly enough, when you consider ALL of the statistical data out there in the playoffs....it appears that a SOLID case could be made for Kurt Warner to be the ONE QB you would want to have in order to lead your
team to victory win the playoffs! How many times does his name even get mentioned in the discussion?

I'm just having fun, folks....trying to contribute to the overall conversation with some actual stats.
I love Football...and like to recognize excellence in the sport from ANY team or player.

GO VOLS!
 
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#1,262
#1,262
MikeVol44 said:
A question--Why do you think the TD%; INT%; SACK %; and Passer Rating stats---etc...etc... exist?
Are they not for comparative purposes in an attempt to establish a "LEVEL" playing ground upon which statistical anomalies may be minimized in performance evaluations?
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Whew, you are making my head hurt and making me think too much on a Friday ;)

Regarding your question, totally agree stats exist for comparison purposes. But my point is you took a stat one step further and tried to interpret an additional meaning from it which is impossible to definitively determine. You can't make any conclusions on sacks per pass attempt and the type of passes being thrown without doing a much deeper analysis on the throws he made. We agree he was sacked more often, but again you can't make a conclusion that he was 55% more likely to have less time. It could mean he and Peyton had roughly the same time, but Peyton was much better at side stepping the rush and avoiding the sack (hypothetically). Which exactly illustrates my point, I could easily argue a completely different angle on the meaning of the stat based on my interpretation. That's why you have to take stats at face value and not try and make interpretations on what they mean. As you said, it is what it is, Brady got sacked more than Peyton. That's a fact and nobody knows why unless they analyze ever single pass attempt each one made.
 
#1,264
#1,264
jps2194 said:
It's fun to read the arguments for and against Brady as the GOAT. There are so many factors to consider and IMO impossible to ever settle this debate. Do you base the GOAT on stats, records or some combination? Nobody will ever agree. You can't deny Brady's success with 6 SB wins, but you also can't deny the brilliance of Peyton and the numbers he put up. I definitely believe Brady was fortunate to play for one team and coach his entire career. Oh yeah, and he is the best coach in the history of football (college or NFL). Would Brady have been successful for another team, absolutely? Would he have 6 SB victories, I doubt it as the Pats are the best ever at putting together a team as well as game planning and exploiting a team's weaknesses. Do the Pats have 6 SB's without Brady, probably not. Would Peyton have 6 or more SB victories if he played for the Pats, probably so but maybe not. It's impossible to say.

While I'm not a Brady fan, I give him credit for what he's accomplished and he will go down as one of the top players at that position. I also put Peyton at the top as well and I'm fine not declaring them, or anyone else as the GOAT because there is no way to definitively decide that.
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Saban is at least =
 
#1,265
#1,265
YankeeVol said:
Saban is at least =
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I tend to disagree with that. I would rate him close to BB, but let's not forget how bad Saban failed in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, I think he's an excellent coach, just not good as Bill. Saban is an excellent recruiter who wins with 4 and 5 stars. Bill wins with a bunch of no names (aside from a few) and absolutely out coaches everyone he faces. Saban got seriously out coached by Dabo this year. Saban is successful largely do to the players he's able to recruit and mold into elite players. He has a system that works - but I don't think from a X's and O's perspective he's on par with Bill. When he had teams int he NFL that did not have the superior talent, he could not win. Plus he's the Bama coach; therefore, I hate him.
 
#1,266
#1,266
jps2194 said:
I tend to disagree with that. I would rate him close to BB, but let's not forget how bad Saban failed in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, I think he's an excellent coach, just not good as Bill. Saban is an excellent recruiter who wins with 4 and 5 stars. Bill wins with a bunch of no names (aside from a few) and absolutely out coaches everyone he faces. Saban got seriously out coached by Dabo this year. Saban is successful largely do to the players he's able to recruit and mold into elite players. He has a system that works - but I don't think from a X's and O's perspective he's on par with Bill. When he had teams int he NFL that did not have the superior talent, he could not win. Plus he's the Bama coach; therefore, I hate him.
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F*** 'em both honeslty (same goes for the teams). Saban was decent at MSU. He also won a NC at LSU and has 5 at Bama (and only 2 losses. So 6-2 compared to 6-3).

Only a handful of college coaches have had much success in the NFL (Jimmy Johnson, Pete Carroll, though he was average his first time in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh counting SDSU and Stanford).
 
#1,267
#1,267
jps2194 said:
Whew, you are making my head hurt and making me think too much on a Friday ;)

Regarding your question, totally agree stats exist for comparison purposes. But my point is you took a stat one step further and tried to interpret an additional meaning from it which is impossible to definitively determine. You can't make any conclusions on sacks per pass attempt and the type of passes being thrown without doing a much deeper analysis on the throws he made. We agree he was sacked more often, but again you can't make a conclusion that he was 55% more likely to have less time. It could mean he and Peyton had roughly the same time, but Peyton was much better at side stepping the rush and avoiding the sack (hypothetically). Which exactly illustrates my point, I could easily argue a completely different angle on the meaning of the stat based on my interpretation. That's why you have to take stats at face value and not try and make interpretations on what they mean. As you said, it is what it is, Brady got sacked more than Peyton. That's a fact and nobody knows why unless they analyze ever single pass attempt each one made.
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I don't think saying that Brady had less time than Manning 55% on the average every time he attempted a pass is wrong. You can counter with another hypothesis if you want, but it doesn't necessarily invalidate my postulate. Remember--these are AVERAGES--which by definition are attempts to consign data gathered into a normal bell curve distribution in order to identify and minimize inexplicable statistical excursions.

Since there is a AVERAGE measured time for sacks to occur....It's not a stretch AT ALL to make the hypothesis that I made about Brady having less time on the average. I was making a GENERAL and LOGICAL conclusion based on the data.

You can certainly make OTHER GENERAL and LOGICAL conclusions based on the data, too, that complement without disproving my conclusion.
Like Manning may have actually gotten rid of the ball quicker to avoid a sack than Brady because he read the defense and saw the pressure coming.
Also like Manning being able to avoid the sack and get rid of the ball more frequently than Brady.

However, THOSE general and logical explanations only attempt to explain WHY MANNING may have had more time to throw the ball away on average instead of proving that HE DIDN'T have more time to get rid of the ball. And ultimately, they still serve to demonstrate that MANNING chose POORLY more often than Brady when he actually did throw the ball. Sacks also take into account the QB's intent. He must have the intent to complete a pass.

Furthermore, and to cast even more light on the stats, the NFL actually assigns a POINT value to each sack that occurs--and I haven't even mentioned that yet in the evaluation because it introduces a whole lot more of dependent variables into the stew-----> because EVERY SACK is NOT CREATED EQUAL. Therefore, they've assigned an AVERAGE point value to each sack in order to ensure that another set of statistical data conforms to a normal bell curve distribution.

The NFL assigns an AVERAGE of 1.75 points for each sack. They do this because, as I said before, every sack is not created equal. Some sacks cause an offense to lose more points than others depending upon whether they occur during the game.

Technically then, speaking on averages--Brady has had to overcome approximately 828 points lost to his sacks versus PM having to overcome 530 points....that's 138 TDs for Brady compared to 88 for Manning over the life of their regular season careers.
You can divide it be 3 if you want to use FGs....but then again, FGs are not a QB measurement, TD% and INT% is.
Thus, it makes a QB's TD%, INT%, TD/INT, and sack% numbers all the more important to evaluate.

OR--ONE may just accept the statistical averages for what they GENERALLY represent without trying to analyze the VARIOUS dependent variables contributing to their causes.

Therefore, any way one may want to deconstruct the actual data---Brady has performed BETTER than Manning in virtually EVERY statistical measurement that matters.
 
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#1,268
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The questions are could Brady do what Manning did and could Manning do what Brady did/does? In some instances yes and some instances no for both.

Does anyone see a situation where Brady was basically told to move on from the Pats and finds as much success as Manning did in Denver? 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 win, but we all know the Broncos D won that Super Bowl. Manning basically brought his offense to Denver the first few years there. I don’t think Brady would be able to do that. At the same time Manning doesn’t take to structure like Brady and Brady executes the system like no other.
 
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#1,269
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I have to look at it in the terms of who I would want holding the ball down by 4 points with the Championship on the line.

I love Peyton but Brady is the most clutch QB to ever play the game.
 
#1,271
#1,271
rocketskates said:
As much as I love Peyton there really is no debate. You can’t look at Brady’s accomplishments and not say he’s the GOAT.
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Perhaps you can’t, but I can, quite easily. He’s one of the greatest ever to play the position, no doubt. But THE GOAT? Nah. I can easily and credibly make a strong case that a tremendous amount of his success is due to playing for the greatest head coach and organization/culture in nfl history. They plug and play with different players and coaches better than any organization ever seen. Lose one underrated WR and they just go get another underrated, unheralded WR who does nothing but run wide open across the middle of the field or in the flats who catches the ball unimpeded for 5-6 yards before anybody gets near him.

Imho, as great as he is, he’s a system QB that any one of 5-6 other QBs could’ve had similar success in over the past 20 years. Take him out of that system with that coach in that organization and he’s still be really good, but he wouldn’t have come close to sniffing anywhere near the same type of success......conversely, plug in a handful of other top QBs in his place the last two decades, and Belichick is still going to a going to and winning a ton of superbowls.
 
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#1,273
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You have one game, and only one game to play, and your life hangs in the balance. You have one week to prepare. Who will your QB be? I would take Peyton.........as an offensive consultant, to sit in the film room with my QB choice.........Tom Brady. Peyton to break it all down, and Brady to execute the offense.
 
#1,274
#1,274
Jabruzar said:
I have to look at it in the terms of who I would want holding the ball down by 4 points with the Championship on the line.

I love Peyton but Brady is the most clutch QB to ever play the game.
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Would you take Brady on ANY team down by 4 or just the Pats? I would probably take him if he was on the Pats but would not take him if he was on any run of the mill team.
 
#1,275
#1,275
KBVol said:
Perhaps you can’t, but I can, quite easily. He’s one of the greatest ever to play the position, no doubt. But THE GOAT? Nah. I can easily and credibly make a strong case that a tremendous amount of his success is due to playing for the greatest head coach and organization/culture in nfl history. They plug and play with different players and coaches better than any organization ever seen. Lose one underrated WR and they just go get another underrated, unheralded WR who does nothing but run wide open across the middle of the field or in the flats who catches the ball unimpeded for 5-6 yards before anybody gets near him.

Imho, as great as he is, he’s a system QB that any one of 5-6 other QBs could’ve had similar success in over the past 20 years. Take him out of that system with that coach in that organization and he’s still be really good, but he wouldn’t have come close to sniffing anywhere near the same type of success......conversely, plug in a handful of other top QBs in his place the last two decades, and Belichick is still going to a going to and winning a ton of superbowls.
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Agree 100%. Good point that Belichick and friends have not just made qbs better but they have also made very average players at other positions as well. Boyh offense and defense. It looks too easy on both sides of the ball. I am convinced that either Belichik is either still cheating or he’s a genius. One or the other.
 
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