I would have to look back at it, but there was a great 538 article about this sort of situation about a year ago. I remember it talking about how coaches are praised for "extending" the game in situations like this by taking the points, when statistically they are better off going for it. The example used in the article focused on being down by 15 and scoring and then kicking the extra point instead of going for 2. Basically the idea came down to that you are better off not getting it now and knowing how you need to play the rest of the game, then assuming you can get it later. Not 100% sure that this situation fits exactly since its a two possession game either way.