Expectations after 4 years

#101
#101
Sarms58 said:
I do see those as realistic expectations for years 5-8...averaging 9-10 wins per year is what we expect at Tennessee...if Jones can deliver that's great, but coaching is very much a performance based profession...

Most rational people will give you a pass when you inherit a trainwreck and you do have some years with extreme injuries (like 2016), but the rebuilding is over and having back to back injury plagued years is probably gonna be seen as a weakness in the overall execution of the coaching duties...
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I see it as realistic for the program. I don't think Jones is capable of that in this conference.

He got a pass for the better of 2 years. Very, very few were holding him to the standard you posted above during that time, to the point it was almost non existent. Years 3 and 4 given the state of the division opened the door for those expectations to be in play and while its not gonna be a lot tougher next year I don't expect it to stay that way much longer.
 
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#105
#105
BeecherVol said:
I see it as realistic for the program. I don't think Jones is capable of that in this conference.

He got a pass for the better of 2 years. Very, very few were holding him to the standard you posted above during that time, to the point it was almost non existent. Years 3 and 4 given the state of the division opened the door for those expectations to be in play and while its not gonna be a lot tougher next year I don't expect it to stay that way much longer.
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I didn't hold him to those standards for his first 4 years...probably should have last year but I had some real reservations about our ability to win when teams forced us into a pocket passing game...loved Dobbs but that's not his strength...

But in year 3 (2015) when we played everyone close but lost I thought we were too young...in 2015 I think from a pure talent level we were back on equal footing with Florida...I actually had a file where I update rosters to track "blue chips" on each team and we had 35 while Florida had 36...but 28 of our blue chip players were true freshmen or true sophomores...the 2015 team had virtually no senior leaders - no players drafted (again) because Dooley recruited players who would be great at MTSU...on the other hand, the Gator's distribution of blue chip players including more than half as juniors and seniors...which makes me optimistic about our trip to the swamp next fall...there are 13 gator defensive players who we faced in the swamp in 2015 who will be playing in the NFL when we return in 2017...
 
#106
#106
Sarms58 said:
I didn't hold him to those standards for his first 4 years...probably should have last year but I had some real reservations about our ability to win when teams forced us into a pocket passing game...loved Dobbs but that's not his strength...

But in year 3 (2015) when we played everyone close but lost I thought we were too young...in 2015 I think from a pure talent level we were back on equal footing with Florida...I actually had a file where I update rosters to track "blue chips" on each team and we had 35 while Florida had 36...but 28 of our blue chip players were true freshmen or true sophomores...the 2015 team had virtually no senior leaders - no players drafted (again) because Dooley recruited players who would be great at MTSU...on the other hand, the Gator's distribution of blue chip players including more than half as juniors and seniors...which makes me optimistic about our trip to the swamp next fall...there are 13 gator defensive players who we faced in the swamp in 2015 who will be playing in the NFL when we return in 2017...
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We had an advantage at QB this year over pretty much (maybe everyone) we played when you consider talent and experience with Dobbs.

Jones is drifting more towards Dooley in recruiting when he should be solidifying his position and building on recent successes. There may be a small window with UF where UT holds an advantage in experienced talent. But that won't hold for long with Jones current recruiting trend. In a couple of years these "depth" classes we signed are gonna be asked to provide more than just depth.
 
#107
#107
The past two season we have been in the running for the East. With the East being down I expected us to be in SEC Championship. That didn't happen. McElwain will have Florida in the Championship again next year. Butch will blow a game or two like he has the past two seasons.
 
#108
#108
BeecherVol said:
We had an advantage at QB this year over pretty much (maybe everyone) we played when you consider talent and experience with Dobbs.

Jones is drifting more towards Dooley in recruiting when he should be solidifying his position and building on recent successes. There may be a small window with UF where UT holds an advantage in experienced talent. But that won't hold for long with Jones current recruiting trend. In a couple of years these "depth" classes we signed are gonna be asked to provide more than just depth.
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i think he has a real opportunity to make up for this in this next class. the in state talent pool is pretty deep this cycle, and it appears at least early on, that they've gotten in on, and lead, for many of them. he could very well sign 10ish kids from TN, and all be 4* or higher, and fill actual needs.

time will tell of course, but he's got an opportunity to close down the state of TN, and actually have some really good talent to show for it.
 
#109
#109
jbr82 said:
Would you trade HC right now?
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Trade a HC who's won back to back East titles in each of his first two seasons, when not expected to, for a HC who's not yet won even one, after four seasons, when expected to at least once? Why would he?
 
#110
#110
KBVol said:
Trade a HC who's won back to back East titles in each of his first two seasons, when not expected to, for a HC who's not yet won even one, after four seasons, when expected to at least once? Why would he?
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Once the Defensive recruits that Muschamp left behind, cycle out he will not be sitting pretty with the Florida faithful. His offense's (which is his specialty have been horrible) when he can't rely on the Defense to carry him, it will be a short life for JM!!! I wouldn't take him over any coach in the SEC right now. JMHO of course.
 
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#111
#111
jakez4ut said:
i think he has a real opportunity to make up for this in this next class. the in state talent pool is pretty deep this cycle, and it appears at least early on, that they've gotten in on, and lead, for many of them. he could very well sign 10ish kids from TN, and all be 4* or higher, and fill actual needs.

time will tell of course, but he's got an opportunity to close down the state of TN, and actually have some really good talent to show for it.
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Its paramount to him surviving here. The cornerstones to his best classes have been instate and legacy kids. The instate talent appears to be on the best run it ever has been and doesn't appear to just be a fluke.

The season will determine how well he coverts the instate and out of state kids next year.
 
#112
#112
BeecherVol said:
Its paramount to him surviving here. The cornerstones to his best classes have been instate and legacy kids. The instate talent appears to be on the best run it ever has been and doesn't appear to just be a fluke.

The season will determine how well he coverts the instate and out of state kids next year.
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more important than that, it will determine what kind of impression he's really made with recruits. if at some point he can't keep the majority of the in state kids, that kind of tells you what you need to know on where those that matter think the program is, and is heading.

so while i think this year's on field is important, i don't think it's as important as this next cycle.

win 7 or 8 games this season (which i think the ceiling is 8 this year), but you do sign 10 or so of these in state kids, that are all 4* or better, i think you can rest a little easier about the overall direction of the ship....he does that, and it'll be a top 10 class.

cause i don't think there's much to expect as far as results go this up coming season. i look at this season a lot like i did the 2014 season....better days lie on the horizon. immediate forecast calls for some chop.
 
#113
#113
wesleydmartin said:
going to reserve my over all season thoughts for a later date, but i do worry about Ga now for sure, im convinced Eason is a baller and nfl'er ala Matt Stafford....
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We haven't faced UGAs best player in years. If our luck holds, maybe Eason gets suspended the week before the game.
 
#114
#114
jakez4ut said:
more important than that, it will determine what kind of impression he's really made with recruits. if at some point he can't keep the majority of the in state kids, that kind of tells you what you need to know on where those that matter think the program is, and is heading.

so while i think this year's on field is important, i don't think it's as important as this next cycle.

win 7 or 8 games this season (which i think the ceiling is 8 this year), but you do sign 10 or so of these in state kids, that are all 4* or better, i think you can rest a little easier about the overall direction of the ship....he does that, and it'll be a top 10 class.

cause i don't think there's much to expect as far as results go this up coming season. i look at this season a lot like i did the 2014 season....better days lie on the horizon. immediate forecast calls for some chop.
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The winds have somewhat calmed since Nov. Even tho that didn't result in a big finish recruiting. I dont think it stays that way or blows in a positive direction if he goes 7-5 next year. Im a little more skeptical in that regard it appears than you are.
This year was a very good year for instate talent and it wasn't carried by an 8 win regular season topped off by a bowl win. Im just not ready to say next years class will be better with the same results.
 
#115
#115
BeecherVol said:
The winds have somewhat calmed since Nov. Even tho that didn't result in a big finish recruiting. I dont think it stays that way or blows in a positive direction if he goes 7-5 next year. Im a little more skeptical in that regard it appears than you are.
This year was a very good year for instate talent and it wasn't carried by an 8 win regular season topped off by a bowl win. Im just not ready to say next years class will be better with the same results.
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i'm trying to find ways to be more optimistic. :) he's here. he ain't going anywhere. so i need him to do well. :angel:

so if he is to do well, "what's the path" sort of thing.

i'm still very skeptical. and if as we get closer to next February, we start seeing A's and tiger paws and captial G's and johnny rebs next to all those names of the kids from TN.........or if those power t's start to fill up by those names...either way we'll have somewhat of an answer.

it's an opportunity...that's all it is.
 
#116
#116
jakez4ut said:
i'm trying to find ways to be more optimistic. :) he's here. he ain't going anywhere. so i need him to do well. :angel:

so if he is to do well, "what's the path" sort of thing.

i'm still very skeptical. and if as we get closer to next February, we start seeing A's and tiger paws and captial G's and johnny rebs next to all those names of the kids from TN.........or if those power t's start to fill up by those names...either way we'll have somewhat of an answer.

it's an opportunity...that's all it is.
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There is a path. He just has to better than he has been.

Jones recruiting ability now is tied more to the product than a vision of it. If he somehow finds away to make the product better he's plenty good enough to recruit competitive SEC and National talent. And he now has an advantage that previous UT coaches haven't had in years past. The ability to recruit a good foundation without leaving the state.
 
#117
#117
BeecherVol said:
There is a path. He just has to better than he has been.

Jones recruiting ability now is tied more to the product than a vision of it. If he somehow finds away to make the product better he's plenty good enough to recruit competitive SEC and National talent. And he now has an advantage that previous UT coaches haven't had in years past. The ability to recruit a good foundation without leaving the state.
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agreed.
 
#119
#119
Heard something on Colin Cowherd's show a few weeks ago that I could not agree with more.

"There are lots of teams in the SEC with elite talent, but only mediocre coaching. Tennessee, Georgia, both teams have elite talent, but mediocre coaching."

I'd accept a 9-3 season with a bowl win, 8-4 is borderline.
 
#120
#120
jonrulz123 said:
Heard something on Colin Cowherd's show a few weeks ago that I could not agree with more.

"There are lots of teams in the SEC with elite talent, but only mediocre coaching. Tennessee, Georgia, both teams have elite talent, but mediocre coaching."

I'd accept a 9-3 season with a bowl win, 8-4 is borderline.
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8-4 is realistic, 9-3 would take a massive improvement on defense and great QB play this fall
 
#121
#121
Sarms58 said:
You can't do the good to great deal until you get to good...working with companies that were really struggling many tried programs to push for excellence or other similar slogans but the reality is they had to first just work to make it back to average...mediocrity...
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I see what you are saying so hopefully you'll just take this as a continuation and not a confrontation... but the "great" attitude is there from the start. Performance over time will align with leadership and expectations. In my experience, "programs" aren't the reason places succeed or fail... unless the place you are talking about is a bookstore. Programs are tools in a box. Leadership and culture are what works even when the "tools" used are vastly different.

I am not overestimating the power of one fan's expectations in this regard. But the power of the fanbase's expectations on the whole is huge.

From there you can make the leap to excellence...and I think that's where we are...our overall talent level is good enough to win 9 of 10 games this year and with some breaks....
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I think that's where UT was two years ago before it dropped 2 landmark winnable games plus another dud. I certainly think it is where UT was prior to the '16 season before losing to Vandy, USCe, and to a lesser extent TAM.

You probably know more than anyone that you don't get to stand on the same level and continue to fail to make that jump. You either go up... or you go down. IMO, the last two recruiting classes are the trend predictor. UT needs a surprise season this fall followed by an elite class.

Should Fulmer have been fired after his 4th season since he didn't win a championship?
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If he had had the wide open opportunities that Jones has had... yes. In his first 4 years, Fulmer was 39-9 overall and 26-6 in conference.... and was 7-1 in 3 of the 4 years. There was every reason to believe Fulmer was on the cusp of pushing through to a championship. Besides Spurrier, no one else proved they could beat him.

Jones has had no one who is the equivalent of Spurrier or UF standing in his way. The door has been wide open... he has failed to lead the program through it.

The reason Fulmer was canned was just the opposite. He proved he could get to the door step but the game had passed him by. He couldn't compete with the Sabans and Meyers of the world.... then couldn't consistently beat lesser coaches.
 
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#122
#122
After the Gator Bowl, I did feel that one of the past two seasons would have ended with a trip to Atlanta.

Oh, and at least one win against the SEC W
 
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#123
#123
TNinSC said:
After the Gator Bowl, I did feel that one of the past two seasons would have ended with a trip to Atlanta.

Oh, and at least one win against the SEC W
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i felt that way after the 13 GA game. i was really excited about the prospects of TN football after that game, even in a loss.
 
#124
#124
Very difficult to sit down and have specific expectations for a coach four years out in a changing landscape like college football.

But looking at the talent we had coming into 2016 and the extreme lack of talent in the SEC East, I fully expected to be in the SECCG. Anyone who thinks it's fine that we didn't win the East is kidding themselves. This team, even with injuries, was good enough to beat USCe and Vanderbilt.

USCe was after a TWO WEEK LAYOFF that Butch lauded as so needed and so beneficial. Then we came out had an offsides on the kick-off. What a joke.

There is an air of "wull waddya expeck?" in all these kind of threads. As a fan of a traditional powerhouse, I expect us to take advantage of a weak division and win the damn thing. Not spew BS about winning three (mediocre) bowl games in a row.

I would fully expect a new coach named Bobby Petrino or Tee Martin to be extremely competitive from day one and have us in at least one SECCG within four years. I give Butch credit for building the program back. Now it's time for him to go back to a mid-major.
 
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#125
#125
johnrlansford said:
What were your realistic expectations for Butch Jones through 4 years when he was hired?

Also if Butch was fired today what would be your realistic expectations for the new coach after 4 years?
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My first expectation was to rebuild the program the right way. And though I can see a few times where Butch has walked through the pasture field and stepped squarely into the biggest manure pile he could find (mainly when he is in a press conference), I am not one of the,"fire his ass" crowd because I am unhappy with losses.

If he were fired, I would not change my expectations for the next guy.
 
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