Expectations after 4 years

#76
#76
johnrlansford said:
The response was to a person who said we should win 10 games every year, not even Fulmer did that, and he came into a dream team unlike Butch Jones that is all I am saying.
Click to expand...

Fulmer inherited a team that won 9.5 games per year over the previous 4 years (38 wins)...Jones inherited a team that won 5.75 games per year over the previous 4 years (23 wins)...

Fulmer inherited much more talent...15 kids were drafted off the team he inherited...3 kids were drafted off the team Jones inherited...

It's just not like hitting the reset button on your nintendo...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#77
#77
Given that the talent level is back to SEC level, I expect Jones to average 9 to 10 wins per season over his next 4 years at Tennessee...if he doesn't, he might not make it for 4 more years...but he's not on the hot seat for 2017 - not from the administration anyway. A poor season in 2017 could get him on the hot seat for 2018 but he would probably still get a shot at 2018...
 
#78
#78
Sarms58 said:
Given that the talent level is back to SEC level, I expect Jones to average 9 to 10 wins per season over his next 4 years at Tennessee...if he doesn't, he might not make it for 4 more years...but he's not on the hot seat for 2017 - not from the administration anyway. A poor season in 2017 could get him on the hot seat for 2018 but he would probably still get a shot at 2018...
Click to expand...

He should be on a very hot seat after squandering that much talent. I'm not sure how much you know about the admin and boosters. I know very little. But the media often sets the tone and they aren't going to be kind to him until he surprises in a positive way for once.
 
#79
#79
PS- The talent may be at an "SEC level"... but arguably Vandy has SEC level talent. I'm more concerned about whether it is at a level to compete for the East and then the SEC.
 
#80
#80
johnrlansford said:
He won't be gone barring a losing season, guaranteed. Thy are not going to fire a coach who brought you out of the storm and is moving a program in the right direction.

Not saying that Butch is the long term answer but he is safe until after 2018 barring a complete melt down and losing season.

His seat isn't anywhere near as hot as many on here believe it to be!!!
Click to expand...
I ll disagree.
 
#81
#81
johnrlansford said:
The responce was to a person who said we should win 10games every year, not even Fulmer did that, and he came into a dream team unlike Butch Jones that is all I am saying.
Click to expand...

That's fine.

Averages get thrown around here like that tells the whole story.
 
#82
#82
johnrlansford said:
He won't be gone barring a losing season, guaranteed. Thy are not going to fire a coach who brought you out of the storm and is moving a program in the right direction.
Click to expand...
Mostly because a 7 or even 8 win regular season wouldn't represent a movement in the right direction. It would say that he has plateaued... he has reached his high point with UT and lacks the talent to push the program higher.

It is almost a bad thing that the guy has worked so hard to get UT to "mediocre"... 2nd tier. What more does he have left to give?

Not saying that Butch is the long term answer but he is safe until after 2018 barring a complete melt down and losing season.
Click to expand...
How do you know this? But maybe more importantly... should he be? That would be 6 years in a job where 4 years is typically more than enough time to evaluate a HC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#84
#84
Sarms58 said:
Given that the talent level is back to SEC level, I expect Jones to average 9 to 10 wins per season over his next 4 years at Tennessee...if he doesn't, he might not make it for 4 more years...but he's not on the hot seat for 2017 - not from the administration anyway. A poor season in 2017 could get him on the hot seat for 2018 but he would probably still get a shot at 2018...
Click to expand...

Thats what the expectations should be in years 5-8. I don't expect that from what he has done so far. The only way that happens is if the east gets worse and I don't see that happening.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#86
#86
Behr said:
That they do my friend.
Click to expand...

You keep a guy long enough and he's gonna have some bad years. What did he do with his good ones? Fulmer had some good years that probably should have been better but even some of his lesser years with talent landed him in Atl.

Fans can deal with 7 or even 6 wins on occasion as long as those double digit + years come with it. Those put you in positions for the ultimate goals.
 
#87
#87
sjt18 said:
He should be on a very hot seat after squandering that much talent. I'm not sure how much you know about the admin and boosters. I know very little. But the media often sets the tone and they aren't going to be kind to him until he surprises in a positive way for once.
Click to expand...

I'm most disappointed that we didn't do a better job shutting down the run - especially up the middle...

You had a 5th year 4 star defensive tackle (O'Brien) along with 5 star sophomore McKenzie, 4 star sophomore Tuttle, 4 star sophomore (and #1 Juco DT) Johnson along with an experienced 3 star redshirt junior (Vickers)...with that kind of talent we should have been much better at controlling the LOS and jamming the run...no way should we have given up the rushing yardage we did against weak teams like Kentucky (443 yards) and Missouri (420 yards).

But of course LB play was disappointing...JRM was ineffective and his protege, Sapp, made no impact all year. Even with the poor play of these two, you would have thought that Kirkland - coming off an impressive freshman season - would have been more of a factor but his production was way down - he made 21 fewer tackles in his sophomore season and was worthless in our games against TAMU and Bama...

They way these guys played, Butch should be on the hot seat...
 
#88
#88
BeecherVol said:
Thats what the expectations should be in years 5-8. I don't expect that from what he has done so far. The only way that happens is if the east gets worse and I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...

I do see those as realistic expectations for years 5-8...averaging 9-10 wins per year is what we expect at Tennessee...if Jones can deliver that's great, but coaching is very much a performance based profession...

Most rational people will give you a pass when you inherit a trainwreck and you do have some years with extreme injuries (like 2016), but the rebuilding is over and having back to back injury plagued years is probably gonna be seen as a weakness in the overall execution of the coaching duties...
 
#89
#89
Sarms58 said:
I'm most disappointed that we didn't do a better job shutting down the run - especially up the middle...

You had a 5th year 4 star defensive tackle (O'Brien) along with 5 star sophomore McKenzie, 4 star sophomore Tuttle, 4 star sophomore (and #1 Juco DT) Johnson along with an experienced 3 star redshirt junior (Vickers)...with that kind of talent we should have been much better at controlling the LOS and jamming the run...no way should we have given up the rushing yardage we did against weak teams like Kentucky (443 yards) and Missouri (420 yards).

But of course LB play was disappointing...JRM was ineffective and his protege, Sapp, made no impact all year. Even with the poor play of these two, you would have thought that Kirkland - coming off an impressive freshman season - would have been more of a factor but his production was way down - he made 21 fewer tackles in his sophomore season and was worthless in our games against TAMU and Bama...

They way these guys played, Butch should be on the hot seat...
Click to expand...

I hope this is sarcasm
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#90
#90
Sarms58 said:
So how many coaches in Tennessee's' history have met that standard?

Not Jones
Not Dooley
Not Kiffin
Not Fulmer
Not Majors
Not Battle
Doug Dickey!!! Won the SEC in his 4th season (1967)...

So every coach since Dickey is a failure...
Click to expand...

So you are OK with UT accepting a lower standard than their biggest rivals? UF doesn't accept less. Bama doesn't accept less. UGA and LSU eventually fired two guys that were consistently winning 9+ games and who had already won championships. But UT isn't supposed to expect a championship 1 out of every 4 years?

You want to limit the program to "average"? I don't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#91
#91
Sarms58 said:
I do see those as realistic expectations for years 5-8...averaging 9-10 wins per year is what we expect at Tennessee...if Jones can deliver that's great, but coaching is very much a performance based profession...

Most rational people will give you a pass when you inherit a trainwreck and you do have some years with extreme injuries (like 2016), but the rebuilding is over and having back to back injury plagued years is probably gonna be seen as a weakness in the overall execution of the coaching duties...
Click to expand...

Back to back to back. Basically since the S&C staff he brought with him began to make a real impact and the team learned to practice "his way"... the injuries went up. This year was a change though. In '14 and '15, many if not most of the losses were in August. That was probably due to S&C but also the physicality and pace of practice. Pushing guys to extreme muscle fatigue... then someone hits them.

Jones seemed to badly overcompensate for practice fatigue this past fall. He let some players like Hurd decide when they needed a day off. Reports sounded like he went from one extreme to the other.

I'm not excusing Jones with this or for the injuries. All of this lies at his feet. He is the manager of the program and roster.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#92
#92
sjt18 said:
Jones seemed to badly overcompensate for practice fatigue this past fall. He let some players like Hurd decide when they needed a day off. Reports sounded like he went from one extreme to the other.

I'm not excusing Jones with this or for the injuries. All of this lies at his feet. He is the manager of the program and roster.
Click to expand...

I think he alluded to this in an interview...I expect it to be a bit more old school going forward...everyone wants to have good team chemistry but sometimes (many times) the players (or in many of our cases, the workers) really do need to have every detail laid out for them and a position coach (first line supervisor) who makes sure they meet expectations...

We lose 4 of top 5 DTs next year and the whole staff may have to go....
 
#93
#93
sjt18 said:
So you are OK with UT accepting a lower standard than their biggest rivals? UF doesn't accept less. Bama doesn't accept less. UGA and LSU eventually fired two guys that were consistently winning 9+ games and who had already won championships. But UT isn't supposed to expect a championship 1 out of every 4 years?

You want to limit the program to "average"? I don't.
Click to expand...

I don't think it realistic to take a team that average less that 6 wins per year over the previous 4 years and jump into a championship in 4...now Butch had his chance but we know the USC and Vandy games caused us that chance...but we would have been waxed by bama again...

I've worked on some organizational turnarounds and it really does take time...when Butch was hired I didn't expect a championship in 4 years...I expected us to be back to "regular" and I think that's where we are...

I am interested to see how McElwain does with his own players...he did have a late surge and end up with a good class this year but after the NFL draft this year, 13 Florida Gator Defensive players will have been drafted in just 2 years from what McElwain inherited...Butch should thank Dooley for the 1 defensive player he inherited who was drafted...

And Georgia will be interesting to watch...Smart was able to do less with more in his first year and if they have anything less than 10 wins next year, the fans are going to be pissed...Richt won 40 games in his last 4 years...I predict Smart will be more like Goff than Sabin...

LSU could be dangerous with a real coach...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#95
#95
sjt18 said:
But UT isn't supposed to expect a championship 1 out of every 4 years?
Click to expand...

Historically we've won the league or been co-champions about 1 out of every 7.2 years...of course nowadays there are no more co-champions so it's a bit tougher...
 
#96
#96
Sarms58 said:
I don't think it realistic to take a team that average less that 6 wins per year over the previous 4 years and jump into a championship in 4...now Butch had his chance but we know the USC and Vandy games caused us that chance...but we would have been waxed by bama again...
Click to expand...
Very simple question... Why? Why isn't it realistic when it has been done by other coaches in other places? But you kind of hit on it... Jones actually built the program to a point of contending for a championship then didn't. Much of the reason he didn't compete for a championship is his management of the program and his game day coaching... and his management and selection of the staff.

I've worked on some organizational turnarounds and it really does take time...when Butch was hired I didn't expect a championship in 4 years...I expected us to be back to "regular" and I think that's where we are...
Click to expand...
My current job was a turnaround challenge when I got here. Within two years, our performance measures were among the best in our company. We are a division of a Fortune 200 company. It does take time.

BUT... the reasons behind UT's failure to play in the SEC CG for the last two years aren't related to time. He had the people to win.

I am interested to see how McElwain does with his own players...he did have a late surge and end up with a good class this year but after the NFL draft this year, 13 Florida Gator Defensive players will have been drafted in just 2 years from what McElwain inherited...Butch should thank Dooley for the 1 defensive player he inherited who was drafted...
Click to expand...
Jones wasn't dependent on Dooley's players for the last two years. Attrition from his own recruiting classes and injuries were far more critical than "the mess he was left".

And Georgia will be interesting to watch...Smart was able to do less with more in his first year and if they have anything less than 10 wins next year, the fans are going to be pissed...Richt won 40 games in his last 4 years...I predict Smart will be more like Goff than Sabin...

LSU could be dangerous with a real coach...
Click to expand...

Buying Smart more than O... though I like O a lot more.

My fear is that by missing the window these past two years, Jones has squandered more than just those opportunities. Rebuilding a program, like rebuilding an organization, requires "momentum". In his case, the biggest momentum need is recruiting. He needs players.

Using 247's numbers, Jones has gone from a score of 213.57 to 277.02 to 285.64 to 253.94 to 236.15. His new coach recruiting momentum is gone. His clichés that sound like excuses have given the media and opposing coaches fodder to mock him and UT. His performance provides way too much ammo to rival recruiters.

He needs a break out year in which he surprises in a positive rather than negative way. If he doesn't get it this fall then he just won't be able to sign the players he needs to turn the corner in the future.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#97
#97
Sarms58 said:
Historically we've won the league or been co-champions about 1 out of every 7.2 years...of course nowadays there are no more co-champions so it's a bit tougher...
Click to expand...

Not the question. Are you satisfied with UT's rivals being superior? I don't honestly care if UT had never been a good program. The standard isn't UT's historical average... the standard is the historic runs we've seen at Bama, UF, USC, Texas, ND in the day, FSU, Miami, OU, Nebraska of old....

You said you were someone who had been involved in corporate turnarounds. Have you ever made it a goal to be as good as the "historical average" of the place you were trying to fix? I would wager that you would fire a manager for suggesting that you should shoot for mediocrity, right?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#98
#98
sjt18 said:
Not the question. Are you satisfied with UT's rivals being superior? I don't honestly care if UT had never been a good program. The standard isn't UT's historical average... the standard is the historic runs we've seen at Bama, UF, USC, Texas, ND in the day, FSU, Miami, OU, Nebraska of old....

You said you were someone who had been involved in corporate turnarounds. Have you ever made it a goal to be as good as the "historical average" of the place you were trying to fix? I would wager that you would fire a manager for suggesting that you should shoot for mediocrity, right?
Click to expand...

You can't do the good to great deal until you get to good...working with companies that were really struggling many tried programs to push for excellence or other similar slogans but the reality is they had to first just work to make it back to average...mediocrity...

From there you can make the leap to excellence...and I think that's where we are...our overall talent level is good enough to win 9 of 10 games this year and with some breaks....

I know it sounds like a broken record but good ole Phil inherited an infinitely more talented team and won his first championship in his 5th season...maybe Butch, who started with less talent than Majors but performed so much better can pull a Fulmer and win a championship next year...

Should Fulmer have been fired after his 4th season since he didn't win a championship?
 
#99
#99
Sarms58 said:
Fulmer inherited a team that won 9.5 games per year over the previous 4 years (38 wins)...Jones inherited a team that won 5.75 games per year over the previous 4 years (23 wins)...

Fulmer inherited much more talent...15 kids were drafted off the team he inherited...3 kids were drafted off the team Jones inherited...

It's just not like hitting the reset button on your nintendo...
Click to expand...

I agree with you 100% that was my point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#100
#100
johnrlansford said:
I agree with you 100% that was my point.
Click to expand...

Yea, he had to get us back to average...this year we could have and you argue should have won the east...but injuries were huge...

it will be interesting going forward if one of the QBs can step up and be that special QB...like David Green at Georgia or Danny Wuerffel at Florida...guys who just knew how to win and had the special "it" factor...I loved Dobbs and he was what we needed but we need a QB with a much better touch passing the ball and great field vision to see the open receiver...a special QB can cover a multitude of sins....
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top