We are in trouble

#251
#251
White and Heupel bring one thing to Tennessee that we haven’t seen in 15 yrs. Which is STABILITY between AD and Coach. Last 3 ADs had no clue or repore with the coach they hired.
 
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#253
#253
greazy1722 said:
Gobbleygoop...blah blah blah
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On your earlier assertation? What are you basing this "more talent" crap on....PRODUCTION? Consider your cuzin for a sec. If he sets career highs in receiving this year, is he now talented...and not BEFORE? Every receiver with better production than his in Knoxville more talented? Clear this conundrum up for us ole wise country azz sage.
 
#254
#254
TheFlash1971 said:
White and Heupel bring one thing to Tennessee that we haven’t seen in 15 yrs. Which is STABILITY between AD and Coach. Last 3 ADs had no clue or repore with the coach they hired.
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It’s been just a few months since Pruitt and Fulmer were kicked out, Heupel has coached one game. Stability , how the f do you know how long this program will be stable if any? 2734A5D1-B6A5-4467-922A-C14F44FBE041.gif
 
#256
#256
sjt18 said:
How many cut and polished diamonds do you think were lined up to take the UT job this January?

Where do you think those $10 million diamonds come from? Saban was one season away from being fired at Mich St before getting a reset at LSU. Is someone like Meyer who you're looking for? He had success at a couple of G5 schools like Heupel before getting the UF job. He was successful at UF with two NC's but also had 3 seasons out of 6 with less than 10 wins including the bowl.

At all times... some coach, some where is on the verge of emerging as the next hot commodity just like every other dominant coach.
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Saben was 9-2 his last year at Mich. St. They'd have been fools to fire him.
 
#258
#258
OllVol said:
Saben was 9-2 his last year at Mich. St. They'd have been fools to fire him.
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Exactly why I said he was one season away from being fired. In his first 4 years he was 6-5-1, 6-6, 7-5, and 6-6. As butchna mentioned, he was 5th, 5th, 6th, and 6th in the Big 10 over those years. Worse yet, he went 3 straight years without beating Michigan. You may be able to go find some old articles. He was on a hot seat and wasn't considered a great coach by anyone.
 
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#261
#261
allvol123 said:
I dont act like anything and I'm not interested in being like everyone else.

Which coaching search ended with us having a new coach that landed at number 2 on coaching salary in the SEC?
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Relevance? Saban wasn't hired for top money at LSU. Hiring the best coach doesn't always mean paying a top salary initially.

We want to look at Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Pruitt and pretend like they would have passed the sniff test in a normal interview? We hire flunkies.
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In hindsight, you can say that... but you are trying to shift your point. You said UT didn't get who they wanted. Dooley was a desperation hire. Jones was not. I have no idea where he was on the "list" and neither do you. But the "resume" UT flaunted after hiring him suggests they were impressed. We know he can BS people. An obvious bad hire looking back... but initially and to most people for 3 years... it looked "good".

I am fully convinced that Fulmer got exactly the kind of coach he wanted and very likely the ONLY one he interviewed and liked. I think he had been stewing over being fired for years and intentionally hired someone he thought would prove that the Fulmer philosophy of football could still win. Pruitt's failure started with Fulmer's ego... but he was still either the guy they wanted or the type of guy Fulmer demanded.

Huepel actually seems like the first non flunky, that said, he was hired by the AD that just left the school he was hired from. That gives me a pretty good indication of where we were on the hiring list.
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How so?

And where someone fits on any "list" like that DOES come down to their "value". The guy at Coastal Carolina was a hot commodity and probably could have been hired by UT. But looking at hires across CFB of guys like him... Fuente, Satterfield, Dooley, Jones, Sumlin, etc... says you don't give them guarantees and big money. I like Freeze but there's no way a program with NCAA issues could hire a coach with NCAA issues.

There might have been a better resume available but you cannot afford to give a slightly lower risk hire the kind of money and guarantees they seemed to be attempting to leverage because of the investigation.

Heupel was a "good" hire in that respect. He may do well. I like the way he coaches. I think he's shown some good leadership. I think he pulled together a very good staff all things considered. But recruiting is a concern and only gets worse if they're finish with more than 6 losses and aren't competitive. HOWEVER... he doesn't have the long guarantees the others wanted. In 3 or 4 years, you can pay him a relatively low buy out (especially compared to UT's recent history) and throw money at a reformed Freeze or whoever the "hot" coach is at that point. It was a good strategic hire even if he isn't successful.
 
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#262
#262
PS- if UT stabilizes and has to make a change in 3 years then they should look for a P-5 coach who is outperforming his resources and roster wherever he is.... not necessarily someone who is winning big or a coordinator from a top program.
 
#263
#263
allvol123 said:
I dont act like anything and I'm not interested in being like everyone else.

Which coaching search ended with us having a new coach that landed at number 2 on coaching salary in the SEC?

We want to look at Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Pruitt and pretend like they would have passed the sniff test in a normal interview? We hire flunkies.

Huepel actually seems like the first non flunky, that said, he was hired by the AD that just left the school he was hired from. That gives me a pretty good indication of where we were on the hiring list.
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Proven coaches don’t leave anymore, especially for here. These guys make millions and can compete for the playoff. They care way more about their relationship with the AD. We offered Charlie Strong $4M/year when $4M/year meant something in 2013 and he still said no. You might get a P5 move with AD instability/bad relationship or maybe a guy goes to alma mater. But these guys just don’t leave anymore.
 
#264
#264
zjcvols said:
Proven coaches don’t leave anymore, especially for here. These guys make millions and can compete for the playoff. They care way more about their relationship with the AD. We offered Charlie Strong $4M/year when $4M/year meant something in 2013 and he still said no. You might get a P5 move with AD instability/bad relationship or maybe a guy goes to alma mater. But these guys just don’t leave anymore.
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What did we offer Lane last year?
 
#265
#265
Out of the 64 P5 coaches currently employed, six come from a power 5 school.

Mel Tucker- Doubled the salary, went back to the Midwest

James Franklin- Took a much better job, went back home

Paul Chryst- Alma Mater

Dan Mullen- Took better, went back to AD that hired him originally plus had history at the school

Mike Leach- Wanted to coach in the SEC…got significant pay raise

Jimbo Fisher- Had falling out with AD, came back to SEC
 
#269
#269
The mindset displayed in this thread is the reason I keep seeing people post

"I don't care, as long as we beat Vandy"
 
#270
#270
sjt18 said:
You and I are fans. We should NEVER allow ourselves to lower what "should" happen relating to the opportunity of a schedule and a roster. The rest is what we should always demand and expect of a coach. You're being negative but at the same time you're lowering the bar.

I would say the bar was lowered for us. In the last 10 years we are 60-62 or .491 overall and 26-56 in conference or .317 in conference. We are coming off a 3-7 season with a whole new coaching staff, different schemes on offense and defense and lost more personnel to the transfer portal than anyone else we play and likely anyone else in the country. Wanting to be a 6-6 team in Haupel's first year would seem to me to be a “realistic” goal. Expecting to win 8 games is border line sunshine pumping. We are what we are, a .500 football team.

You and I have both been around a long time. The odds and FPI and all that will change as the season progresses. All predictions right now are based on a fairly shallow knowledge of rosters and players and last year. We may know more about UGA than we do UK... but then again maybe Clemson's O just isn't as good as everyone expected. Maybe this will be a slump year for Clemson?

The FPI and expectations of our Vols and every team we play will shift constantly throughout the season due to wins / loses, injuries, Covid, and who knows what else. Right now we are (were) consequential favorites in just 4 games.

The USCe game should not be competitive. In truth, Mizzou shouldn't be very competitive. UK is a more of a question mark but should really be a win. NONE of those stadiums are particularly difficult to play in. Unless some sudden excitement hits... UT may almost have a homefield advantage in COMO.

Not saying we can't win when the Lame Cocks come to K-town or we travel to the Show-Me state (those are among my 4 toss up games) but as of right now you can get a lot of takers if you want to bet on the Vols being prohibitive favorites - 14+ points.

UT has more talent than those teams. The rest is coaching.

I think those first two are at the very extreme low of probabilities. I do not expect a win but UF could be vulnerable to upset coming off Bama.

We do have nominally more talent on paper (recruiting ratings), and I agree a great deal of the rest is coaching, but what will separate the winner from the loser in both the USCe and Mizzou games IMHO is the relative execution of our respective QBs and who can make the "splash" plays - Turnovers and special teams (returns, blocked kicks). We have lost those battles consistently over the last several years. Where we seem to differ is you think this has changed significantly with Haupel and staff and I want to see it first. I didn't see enough against BG to become a believer. Although the teams demeaner and execution (OL and defensively) did give me a glimmer of hope.

Ole Miss according to 247 has significantly less talent than UT. I am impressed with them like you are.... but is it about Jimmy's and Joe's or not?

Ole Miss is just a better football team than we are currently. I expect to be beaten by better teams. But that's why we play the games. Also, if Milton routes Pitt with a big game (I don't care if its passing or running) and scares (or better yet crushes the hearts of) the Gator faithful, I would reassess.

Asking a coach to beat 2 or 3 out of 4 teams with less talent is a "big ask"? Since when? Because Pruitt was a poor HC we should change our "ask"?

Regardless of recruiting ratings, or other metrics, the only thing that matters is what the score is when the clock reaches 00:00. We have been a .500 team for a decade. Like Mr. Newton's first law states an object at rest remains at rest until acted upon by an outside force. We both hope Haupel is that force. You think he is, I want to see it first.

UT is going to be USCe. They're awful. They're probably going to beat Mizzou even without better QB play. But possibly the most unreasonable part of your whole argument is the idea that UT will get the same as last week without improvement or change.... there's roughly a zero probability of that happening.

BG is the worst team we will play all year, most likely by a large margin. Our starting QB was 1 for 11 against them in the 2nd half. The one completion was a spectacular play by our WR for 40 yards and a TD. If he doesn’t make that play, we have 5 yards passing in the 2nd half – 0 yards from our starter. Yes, USCe and Missouri are bad SEC teams but they both have way more and better athletes than Bowling Green. So yes, unless we get consequentially better QB play than we did against BG, we will struggle to win against both USCe and Missouri. We will not be able to line up and run the ball down their throats like we did against BG when they know we can’t pass the ball. Expect to see 7 in the box with the SS’s first move towards the LOS until we can prove we have a QB who can consistently make routine throws. So yes, I stand by my statement, unless we get better QB play than we have seen, we will struggle to beat anyone in the SEC except Vandy. That’s why the Pitt game is so important. If we can't clean up the passing game it will be another long disappointing season.

You can make an argument that 3 of those games are toss ups. USCe is a disaster. They pulled a GA in to play QB because a mediocre starter got hurt and their other two guys were just that bad. That GA had been a back up for Iowa State who never sniffed the starting job and then because a back up at North Dakota State. What would you be saying if UT's best option at QB were previously a back up for an FCS school?

That GA was 13-21 for 121 yards , 4 TD's and 0 INT's in basically 1 half of play. USCe played their other 2 guys most of the 2nd half. Yes it was Eastern Illinois, and they are not very good. Milton was 11-23 for 139 yards and 1 TD in 57 minutes and 80 plays against another not very good team. By all objective standards USCe's QB out played ours. As I said, I look for this to be another death match struggle between 2 very average teams and I have seen nothing yet that would indicate we are a superior team to USCe. Everything we have seen to date says this is a toss up game. Maybe give the Vols a slight edge as we're the home team.

You are an intelligent guy I think. Have you ever studied probabilities? Nothing that happened 10 years ago has a direct impact on what happens this year. You could argue that what happened last year and possibly the year before has some impact but nowhere near as much as the last 8 months.... or the talent on the roster... or the talent on those other rosters. This is a 6 to 8 win team against this schedule. The critical component is coaching and coaching decisions.

That may be what you believe... but it isn't "realistic." Barring coaching failure this is a 6 to 8 win team. And if they do not get to that level then you can and should look directly at the current coaching staff. They will be well on their way to unemployment in 3 years.
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By my calculations, and those of the guys who make the lines (and do this for a living) we are a 4–6-win team. I'm hoping for 6 wins.
Here is how I (and they currently) would calculate the probability of winning all of our remaining games. All odds are based on if played next Saturday.
Pitt – we are a 3.5-point dog. Toss up 50/50 game
Tennessee Tech - Win
Florida - Gators 14-point favorite - Loss
Missouri – Will be inside a TD game - Toss up 50/50 game
South Carolina - Will be inside a TD game - Toss up 50/50 game
Mississippi – Black Bears 10+-point favorites – Loss
Alabama – Tide 35-point favorites – Loss
Georgia – Dawgs 28-point favorites - Loss
Kentucky – Wildcats 8-point favorites – 30/70 game - kinda toss up :)
South Alabama – Win
Vanderbilt – Win

So my best guess based on what we know now is we win 3 of the non-conference games, beat Vandy, and then win 2 out of the 4 toss up games. We could get to 7 if we can beat everyone not better than us (with 3 of those being currently 3–6-point games - the next having us at +3.5, so we’re expected to lose. (the line has moved in favor of Pitt since the season started demonstrating that most people were more impressed with Pitt beating UMass than our win over BG) To get to 8 wins or better we have to win all 3 true toss up games then additionally beat some team that currently would be 8 to double digit favorites. The current probabilities would have us winning 5-6 games. By my calculations I am an optimist. You can choose to believe that the odds makers are all wrong, but the current probability of us winning more than 6 games is pretty small. The sport and lines are dynamic. We beat Pitt decisively then Missouri and USCe look more like wins and Knetucky moves to a toss up. Conversely, we lose to Pitt, 4-5 wins looks like the ceiling. It will change week to week. Right now if you gave me 6-6 and the Belk Bowl I would take it.

The probablity of Haupel still being here in 4 years is by my estimation 50/50. Winning 6 to 8 games a year and getting to a bowl every year will be considered improvement. That will keep him here through his current contract. Beyond that who knows.
 
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#272
#272
norrislakevol said:
So how would classify his play? No one in their right mind would say he played well.
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Why is nobody saying Hyatt played bad? He had two atrocious drops and then lost body control on a catch on the boundary which would have made 3rd and short but instead it was incomplete. Fant had a bad drop that almost results in an interception… Milton didn’t play great but he’d be over 60% with those three completions along with over 200 yds passing. There’s plenty of blame to go around in the throw game.
 
#274
#274
CountVolcula said:
I gave it a few days to see where our opponents ended up after yesterday, to give my take on what I saw Thursday and where I think we end up at the end of the year

Its not going to be pretty. Our QB play was horrendous. Against one of the worst defenses in Div 1, Milton looked like another mediocre QB at UT. Stayed too long in the pocket, stared down receivers, threw the ball with no touch, and took sacks when he could have ran it for fairly good gains. This won't fly against good competition. No way he is our best passing option at QB. If he isnt going to run, give it to someone who doesnt throw a 100mph, 5 and out.

RBs still don't know how to hit the hole with purpose. Too prone to follow blocks instead of seeing the field and findimg holes. Too slow once they get the ball

Wrs can't run routes to save their life. They also seem slow as molasses.

OL looked decent against a trash defense. They'll get beat like rented mules by an SEC D

Offense is too fast.We arent good enough to run 3 plays in 27 seconds. Too many of those in games and our D will be toast. I know its cute, but its not practical. You have to give your D time to rest, especially against better teams that will pound our D into dust.

Defense is mediocre,except for a few bright spots. Banks will be exposed by better offenses. The Penn State D had its worst D last year under Franklin and since Banks left, it improved greatly in the Wisconsin game. There is a reason that Penn St didn't try harder to retain him.

The cycle at UT continues
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The Vols always seem to get the players that few other SEC teams want?
It didn’t used to be this way, but it is now, unfortunately
 
#275
#275
DarkAvenger said:
Why is nobody saying Hyatt played bad? He had two atrocious drops and then lost body control on a catch on the boundary which would have made 3rd and short but instead it was incomplete. Fant had a bad drop that almost results in an interception… Milton didn’t play great but he’d be over 60% with those three completions along with over 200 yds passing. There’s plenty of blame to go around in the throw game.
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JM better find the right touch throwing the football or he’s done
Having a rocket arm can be a problem without some fineness to go along with that arm strength
 
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