Ukraine Protests

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#2,776
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#2,779
#2,779
myrobbins7 said:
US ambassador to Ukraine warns of "inevitable, sharp reaction" by the US if Russian troops cross border into Ukraine.

US 'to react' if Russia crosses into Ukraine - Europe - Al Jazeera English

*sigh*
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I really wish the Russian and pro-Russian side would stop with the neo-Nazi accusations. They sound like their understanding of the crisis is no more sophisticated than a sixth grader's. I know the West and the new Kievan government aren't completely exonerated in this crisis, but jeez!
 
#2,780
#2,780
volprof said:
I really wish the Russian and pro-Russian side would stop with the neo-Nazi accusations. They sound like their understanding of the crisis is no more sophisticated than a sixth grader's. I know the West and the new Kievan government aren't completely exonerated in this crisis, but jeez!
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Russians are engrained with the concept that anything opposed to them is fascist and Nazi. Since WWII, propaganda all revolves around this. Anyone in the former republics who decries the Soviet era is labeled a Nazi sympathizer. I've been in Riga, Latvia when they commemorate their independence after the fall of the USSR. The ethnic Russians still in Latvia call it a Nazi rally.
 
#2,781
#2,781
CSpindizzy said:
Russians are engrained with the concept that anything opposed to them is fascist and Nazi. Since WWII, propaganda all revolves around this. Anyone in the former republics who decries the Soviet era is labeled a Nazi sympathizer. I've been in Riga, Latvia when they commemorate their independence after the fall of the USSR. The ethnic Russians still in Latvia call it a Nazi rally.
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And I'm sure the Latvians appreciate Russia's historical imprint on their land, people, and culture in return.

Yeah, this is why I've posted previously that the current state of the Russian government is ironic. It uses accusations of fascism to win over the people, yet it is essentially fascist, or something very close to it.
 
#2,782
#2,782
Putin is VERY fascist. Russia is about as close as you can get to an example of modern fascism. A very textbook version of it. But the people have been taught a different definition so they cannot see that they are what they despise.

Latvians, like many in the former republics try very hard to distance themselves from anything even remotely resembling the old ways. The ethnic Russians still there try hard to reverse that. The only thing the Baltics have going for them is being within the EU and NATO. But that is a fragile hope I would not hold on to. Methods Putin uses to undermine are effective and can wear down a mindset over time. For those blaming the US for this Ukraine incident, this has been in the works by Putin for some time. We were late to the game. We jumped on board after the car was in motion.
 
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#2,783
#2,783
BBC News - Russia experiencing recession now, says IMF

Recession time for Russia.

Unfortunately, this news also comes on a day when it is now prognosticated that China will pass the US this year as the world's largest economy. Honestly, it was only a matter of time. Only so long you can hold out on an industrialized country with a billion more people. But, I don't doubt that our idiot politicians accelerated things by a couple years or so.
 
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#2,785
#2,785
volprof said:
BBC News - Russia experiencing recession now, says IMF

Recession time for Russia.

Unfortunately, this news also comes on a day when it is now prognosticated that China will pass the US this year as the world's largest economy. Honestly, it was only a matter of time. Only so long you can hold out on an industrialized country with a billion more people. But, I don't doubt that our idiot politicians accelerated things by a couple years or so.
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Putin knows he is on borrowed time. They are sitting on enormous amounts of resources but no infrastructure to process it all. He banked everything on oil and right now he ticked off his biggest customers. Once the EU countries start shifting to other sources of oil the recession will really kick in.
 
#2,787
#2,787
CSpindizzy said:
Russians are engrained with the concept that anything opposed to them is fascist and Nazi. Since WWII, propaganda all revolves around this. Anyone in the former republics who decries the Soviet era is labeled a Nazi sympathizer. I've been in Riga, Latvia when they commemorate their independence after the fall of the USSR. The ethnic Russians still in Latvia call it a Nazi rally.
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To further your point:

Russian news media regularly distort information to make it fit the black-and-white World War II mindset, condoning vigilante violence.

Pro-Kremlin Life News television recently showed footage of gangs wearing St. George ribbons — the symbol of the pro-Russia movement — viciously beating marchers at a peaceful Ukrainian unity rally.

Instead of condemning the brutality, the TV anchor announced: "Donetsk self-defense broke up a neo-Nazi march."
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Russia evokes Nazi horrors to bash Ukraine in propaganda war that rallies society | Fox News

And I thought we were ridiculous here in the US with all our "commie" and "socialist" rhetoric. Well, actually, it still is ridiculous; this is just more ridiculous.
 
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#2,788
#2,788
These thugs usually mingle in and provoke reactions. And do so early in a demonstration to turn the tide quickly. Their whole focus is to make the other side look like the Brownshirts in Munich and Berlin in the early 30's. Regardless, their media will edit it to appear that way regardless. Problem is, they are actually more in line with the SA than they care to admit.

The ribbon is a very patriotic ribbon. It used to be worn by only those who distinguished themselves in combat. Now it is used by all who defend Russia - code for beating the tar out of anyone speaking out against Putin or Russia.

The old KGB mindset is twofold: 1)to put completely outrageous things out there about yourself - like the Jews report to the city hall - to change perceptions that the other side is trying to frame you and make you look bad. and 2)slip agents in on the other side to cause provocations and violence to make them look like the thugs and that your reaction is only a noble attempt to restore order.

This is strategy that goes back during the Cold War. Putin is a student of this strategy and is playing it well. If we want to know his every move, study tactics of the 60's and 70's and read up on Yuri Andropov and the Active Measures program. Same old story different decade.
 
#2,789
#2,789
CSpindizzy said:
These thugs usually mingle in and provoke reactions. And do so early in a demonstration to turn the tide quickly. Their whole focus is to make the other side look like the Brownshirts in Munich and Berlin in the early 30's. Regardless, their media will edit it to appear that way regardless. Problem is, they are actually more in line with the SA than they care to admit.

The ribbon is a very patriotic ribbon. It used to be worn by only those who distinguished themselves in combat. Now it is used by all who defend Russia - code for beating the tar out of anyone speaking out against Putin or Russia.

The old KGB mindset is twofold: 1)to put completely outrageous things out there about yourself - like the Jews report to the city hall - to change perceptions that the other side is trying to frame you and make you look bad. and 2)slip agents in on the other side to cause provocations and violence to make them look like the thugs and that your reaction is only a noble attempt to restore order.

This is strategy that goes back during the Cold War. Putin is a student of this strategy and is playing it well. If we want to know his every move, study tactics of the 60's and 70's and read up on Yuri Andropov and the Active Measures program. Same old story different decade.
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I should have asked earlier: why were you in Latvia?
 
#2,790
#2,790
Partly business partly personal. Business is politics and elections. Personal is friends, missions work, and adoption of an orphan.

Beautiful old country and beautiful people trying to overcome being the rope in centuries of European tug of war.
 
#2,791
#2,791
CSpindizzy said:
Partly business partly personal. Business is politics and elections. Personal is friends, missions work, and adoption of an orphan.

Beautiful old country and beautiful people trying to overcome being the rope in centuries of European tug of war.
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Sounds like you stayed busy. Hope the adoption worked well. I hear those can be a pain in the neck. But worth it, I would imagine.

Anyhow:

BBC News - IMF approves $17bn Ukraine bailout package
 
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#2,792
#2,792
volprof said:
Sounds like you stayed busy. Hope the adoption worked well. I hear those can be a pain in the neck. But worth it, I would imagine.

Anyhow:

BBC News - IMF approves $17bn Ukraine bailout package
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I try to get over once or twice a year. And we go for our last trip in a few weeks. We adopted a special needs girl who just turned two yesterday. She is definitely worth it.

Bailouts will help and be worth it IF they can get connected to the EU and get the system stabilized. They have their issues but Yanukovich was a bulk of the problem with as some say intentional driving of the nation to a point of ripeness for Russia to act.
 
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#2,793
#2,793
CSpindizzy said:
I try to get over once or twice a year. And we go for our last trip in a few weeks. We adopted a special needs girl who just turned two yesterday. She is definitely worth it.

Bailouts will help and be worth it IF they can get connected to the EU and get the system stabilized. They have their issues but Yanukovich was a bulk of the problem with as some say intentional driving of the nation to a point of ripeness for Russia to act.
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Good for you! I hope the coming trip goes well. And congratulations on your new daughter!
 
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#2,795
#2,795
volprof said:
BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Kiev reinstates conscription
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Strangely enough many in the opposition parties during Yanukovich's tenure advocated for this. He made sure this was shot down. Not to mention he made sure Ukraine's military rotted down as well. Budget money trickled out to other sources while the military's equipment continued to age out, training failed, and training exercises with any country but Russia dwindled. Say what you want but this was a long term and deliberately planned scheme fronted by Moscow. Unfortunately, the outcome does not look promising for the country or those nations connected to this crisis.
 
#2,796
#2,796
CSpindizzy said:
Strangely enough many in the opposition parties during Yanukovich's tenure advocated for this. He made sure this was shot down. Not to mention he made sure Ukraine's military rotted down as well. Budget money trickled out to other sources while the military's equipment continued to age out, training failed, and training exercises with any country but Russia dwindled. Say what you want but this was a long term and deliberately planned scheme fronted by Moscow. Unfortunately, the outcome does not look promising for the country or those nations connected to this crisis.
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You may very well be right. In which case, I'm sure Moscow was only trying to protect the world from Nazis and other fascist groups.

Seriously speaking though, this conscription deal is interesting. I'd like to know specific details about it. For instance, does it apply to all Ukraine? If so, I don't think many folks in the eastern part will take kindly, whether or not they support integration or secession.

This has been a thread full of prognostications and forecasts, so why not add another: this conscription act may be a tipping point for an all-out civil war, despite its national defense intentions.
 
#2,797
#2,797
volprof said:
You may very well be right. In which case, I'm sure Moscow was only trying to protect the world from Nazis and other fascist groups.

Seriously speaking though, this conscription deal is interesting. I'd like to know specific details about it. For instance, does it apply to all Ukraine? If so, I don't think many folks in the eastern part will take kindly, whether or not they support integration or secession.

This has been a thread full of prognostications and forecasts, so why not add another: this conscription act may be a tipping point for an all-out civil war, despite its national defense intentions.
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Right now Ukraine has no means of enforcing it in the eastern provinces. They can barely keep control or win back control of government buildings much less enforce government laws and edicts. This is mainly just directed at those in the western provinces to make sure they can set up immediate calls for service.

If war did break out there is no way to stop SVR agents and their assets from joining up and then causing havoc from within. Unfortunately, there is no way to get around this - a tactic mastered by the KGB in their satellites from the 50's to 80's. Unless the EU and/or US actively goes to bat (well beyond sanctions) Ukraine is at minimum set up for long term headaches from within. I think sanctions will help break down Russia which is already economically fragile. But the "fighting spirit" and nostalgia and nationalism of the old days remains even if Russia backs off.
 
#2,798
#2,798
CSpindizzy said:
Right now Ukraine has no means of enforcing it in the eastern provinces. They can barely keep control or win back control of government buildings much less enforce government laws and edicts. This is mainly just directed at those in the western provinces to make sure they can set up immediate calls for service.

If war did break out there is no way to stop SVR agents and their assets from joining up and then causing havoc from within. Unfortunately, there is no way to get around this - a tactic mastered by the KGB in their satellites from the 50's to 80's. Unless the EU and/or US actively goes to bat (well beyond sanctions) Ukraine is at minimum set up for long term headaches from within. I think sanctions will help break down Russia which is already economically fragile. But the "fighting spirit" and nostalgia and nationalism of the old days remains even if Russia backs off.
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Yeah, I completely overlooked the fact that the eastern portion is pretty much no longer Ukraine. Brain freeze. Even so, I'm sure there's still plenty of folks in the western part who wouldn't want to fight fellow Ukrainians, or even Russians for that matter, despite their support for Kiev. We'll see how it plays out.

I'm now pretty much resigned to the fact that at least Donetsk and Luhansk regions are going to secede. I don't think it will ever involve war. I think it will go down Crimea-style. Kiev is powerless to do anything about it. It's admitted as much.

The unfortunate thing about this particular secession is that polls show that the majority of people living in these regions want to stay in Ukraine. It's like they all have a gun held to their heads by a minority faction.
 
#2,799
#2,799
Not only that but what Putin is setting himself up for is problems internally. His push for 'free elections' for self-determination while in a country full of ethnic groups seeking the same puts himself in a bind. If they do have issues internally from sanctions, recession, depression, etc. he has now set Russia up for failure. This is why I think he's pushed all his chips in - he's all in now.

The election is in three weeks. A pro-western leader will be elected. He can push for secession which gives him a partial land victory but still pushes the rest of Ukraine even farther west. If that happens the remnant of Ukraine goes NATO because no one trusts Putin any more. Does he let THAT happen? Or does he invade and go for the whole pie before the elections materialize? I think he wants to create a situation where Ukraine acts stupidly and gives him reason to go for a larger piece. His hope is that his insurgents poke and prod enough for Kyiv to lose control and go all out. Problem with that scenario is that Yanukovich took Ukraine down too far for them to give the reaction/response Putin wants them to.
 
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