Ukraine Protests

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#1,226
#1,226
lawgator1 said:
Your understanding of the world is oversimplified and extremely naive.
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Your understanding of political games that are being played right now is extremely ignorant. Try sticking to something you're good at like giving the sound bites from the White House Press Corps and expressing outrage over Palin's existence.
 
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#1,228
#1,228
utvolpj said:
bypassing Russia won't be done with N American exports. That's why there was such a fight over Syria
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Still puts more on the market and in turn could lower the overall price which would hurt Russia in the long run.

Not saying it's a good idea or will work, but an interesting theory.
 
#1,229
#1,229
Grand Vol said:
Still puts more on the market and in turn could lower the overall price which would hurt Russia in the long run.

Not saying it's a good idea or will work, but an interesting theory.
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if someone is wanting to hurt Russia that's definitely the way to do it. However the people behind the push had better be ready for the blowback since I doubt Putin and his crew take it laying down. More proxy wars a comin'
 
#1,230
#1,230
Velo Vol said:
Oil is quite fungible.
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As is a great many products that Russia produces. Gold, diamonds, oil, natural gas...all commodities that can have extreme fluctuations and ripple effects on national economies if targeted. And all things that can be replaced on the world markets.
 
#1,231
#1,231
utvolpj said:
if someone is wanting to hurt Russia that's definitely the way to do it. However the people behind the push had better be ready for the blowback since I doubt Putin and his crew take it laying down. More proxy wars a comin'
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I'll stand by my statements from yesterday. Russia will find other markets for their resources. Or since they aren't a member of OPEC, they can slash the price to anything they desire and undercut the world market price. It'll sell.
 
#1,232
#1,232
Obsessed said:
This is part of it.

Putins buddy was honoring the agreement over Crimea. The new president was not and was not going to pay Russia for the natural gas it currently owes on.

There is a huge amount of propaganda going on. Ukraines' people are uniting. Not dividing like they are trying to show.

If Putin invades, the US has a obligation to defend them ( Ukraine). China seems to be backing Russia. This could get real nasty. Real quick. Putin is already threatening the US to stop using the dollar as well.
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This is a bluster BS statement. The only thing keeping the Russian economy alive now is petroleum and natural gas which is traded with petrodollars. If Russia refuses the USD, they are bankrupt, if the international price of oil falls to $90/barrel or less, they are bankrupt. The price drop probably won't happen because at that price Saudi Arabia is also bankrupt.
 
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#1,234
#1,234
KentheOrange said:
This is a bluster BS statement. The only thing keeping the Russian economy alive now is petroleum and natural gas which is traded with petrodollars. If Russia refuses the USD, they are bankrupt, if the international price of oil falls to $90/barrel or less, they are bankrupt. The price drop probably won't happen because at that price Saudi Arabia is also bankrupt.
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I don't care whether you believe it or not. If you think its bs. 90 a barrel is the number for Russia. SA I think not. Several country's have already talked of this. China is a big player as well.

Now put your head back in the sand.
 
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#1,235
#1,235
Grand Vol said:
As is a great many products that Russia produces. Gold, diamonds, oil, natural gas...all commodities that can have extreme fluctuations and ripple effects on national economies if targeted. And all things that can be replaced on the world markets.
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To undermine Russian oil, you either have to:

--increase global supply (I think you agreed that a pipeline doesn't produce more oil), or

--convince everyone (not just Europe) to stop buying from Russia. China, India, Australia, everyone.
 
#1,236
#1,236
Grand Vol said:
Seriously?



Or they sell it to Europe which is a major player in the Russian oil and gas market. See how that works?
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That's a legitimate point, but could we export it to Europe as cheap as Russia can? I honestly don't know, although I'd think Russia having access to a pipeline and land exports would work more in their favor.
 
#1,237
#1,237
FLVOL69 said:
That's rich coming from you , how much military experience is under your belt?
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So military experience makes one more versed in international relations and diplomacy? My father-in-law was in the service back in the 90s and came back pretty much hating all foreigners. I don't think I'd nominate him to be an ambassador or diplomat anytime soon.
 
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#1,238
#1,238
CNN: Putin claims no Russia troops in Crimea .he does reserve the right for military actions
 
#1,239
#1,239
Velo Vol said:
Meanwhile, in Crimea

The Anatomy Of A Standoff In Crimea

This is one of the weirder invasions I can remember.
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You're right. It's bizarre. I likened it earlier to the ultraconservative conspiracy theory regarding "Mexicans" taking over America. Just keep trickling in, just keep on trickling in, then BAM! Next thing you know, the Ukraine is Russia, and we all thought these masked unidentified gunmen were only coming for cheap labor.
 
#1,240
#1,240
Gramps said:
CNN: Putin claims no Russia troops in Crimea .he does reserve the right for military actions
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There was apparently a phone call between Obama and Merkel yesterday, wherein she said that Putin seemed almost detached from reality. TIFWIW.
 
#1,242
#1,242
volprof said:
There was apparently a phone call between Obama and Merkel yesterday, wherein she said that Putin seemed almost detached from reality. TIFWIW.
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I heard a former diplomat expand on that by saying that at times it appeared Putin didn't have good information when he attended international meetings.

Maybe he watches RT?
 
#1,245
#1,245
Obsessed said:
I don't care whether you believe it or not. If you think its bs. 90 a barrel is the number for Russia. SA I think not. Several country's have already talked of this. China is a big player as well.

Now put your head back in the sand.
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SA too. @ $90/barrel SA is going to the IMF/World Bank for loans to keep the Princes in Mercedes.
 
#1,246
#1,246
volprof said:
So military experience makes one more versed in international relations and diplomacy? My father-in-law was in the service back in the 90s and came back pretty much hating all foreigners. I don't think I'd nominate him to be an ambassador or diplomat anytime soon.
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oooooh - Daddy issues! :)


I kid, I kid
 
#1,247
#1,247
Velo Vol said:
To undermine Russian oil, you either have to:

--increase global supply (I think you agreed that a pipeline doesn't produce more oil), or

--convince everyone (not just Europe) to stop buying from Russia. China, India, Australia, everyone.
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No, a pipeline doesn't magically create more oil out of nothing...however, getting the Canadian oil sands to refineries quicker does have the overall effect of increasing global supply.

But being that I'm not sure how long it would take to complete the Keystone XL, this is almost a moot point as the supply won't increase until everything is in place. It's more of a long term effort to economically weaken the Russians which makes it interesting that it's being suggested as a plan of action.

On your second point, I said the Russian oil would sell eventually. Any kind of plan we have of attempting to isolate the Russians oil and gas is a long term prospect and not something that will be taken seriously by the Russians. Short term? They can hurt the European nations a whole lot quicker by cutting off oil and natural gas and watching Europe scramble to negotiate. And all this happens before we can get the pipeline into play.
 
#1,248
#1,248
Velo Vol said:
(1) So what if it does?
(2) We have a treaty allowing us to operate in Mexico
(3) What if there were? Russia is going to fight for the Mexican government?
(4) Guatemala would be dictating Russian policy?
(5) Honduras isn't threatened.




Yes, we have a general economic interest in Ukraine. And a general interest that international law is upheld. But we're thousands of miles away. And Russia is only a few miles across a strait.

This makes it much more difficult to weld enough leverage to dissuade Russia from doing what it wants in its back yard. We're having a hard time getting even Europe to cooperate because they're afraid of losing Russian resources and Russian money.
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I understand why we have difficulty in wielding influence but your question was would Russia have ANY influence on how we handled a situation in Mexico - I was showing why the analogy has some problems and given equivalence how our relationship with Russia could dictate HOW we handled the situation; not whether or not we did anything.
 
#1,249
#1,249
It would make it much easier, and less prone to miscalculation, if the US and Russia specifically stated what its interests were in all of the worldwide flareups and conflicts, but I suppose I can see how that would be a disadvantage since it would seem to green light the other for adventures not in the relative sphere of influence of the other.

But that's also what makes for war -- underestimating the other side's resolve.
 
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