That’s fair but generally speaking draft selections reflect star rating. A lot of 3 stars gets drafted but there’s also around 800-900 of them. High school players are more raw so they won’t all hit obviously, but the rankings are supposed to reflect the draft.
Transfers are a lot more certain as you said, but there’s only so many high impact ones and whatever outlet ranks transfers are hit or miss bc the players aren’t in a vacuum like high school and nobody has the time to watch 1,000 portalers in two weeks