I wanted to dive into the stats and get past the raw numbers since we have so many more plays per game than most teams and we play a bend-don’t-break defense. Scoring efficiency, EPA (expected points added), and normalized stats are a good place to start.
When you look at defensive scoring efficiency we are in the top 20 and in opposing passing efficiency we rank 68th. For opposing YPC we are top 10 at 2.89. We’re 50th in PPG at 23 but we’ve faced ~40% more plays than for example UGA. If you normalize to points per play you end up with a top 15 scoring defense.
We also have the number 2 scoring efficiency and passing efficiency offense with the highest YPC and T2 lowest INT. Our rushing offense has been hit or miss but we did just put up 200+ with >5 YPC from our running backs on the number 3 rushing defense in terms of YPC (Alabama).
Looking at EPA, we have a top 10 passing, per play, and per game offense along with a top 20 rushing offense. On defense, we have a top 10 rushing defense along with a top 25 per game defense.
One thing that isn’t captured in these stats is that we tend to create a lot of havoc on defense (hurries, sacks, TFLs) and we have elite pass pro. Imo these are the two areas that result in the biggest matchup problems in CFB and can cause unexpected outcomes bc they aren’t directly reflected in the major stats.
All of this points to the fact that this is an elite team with a good defense and a great offense.