Realistically, do you believe there will be a 2020 season?

[MikeVol44]

11 million Americans make up the "at-risk" population most likely to die from Covid 19 should they be infected. Across all age groups. Trying to build "herd immunity" in 3 months by letting the disease spread unabated puts all of those people at risk.

So cite even one of these doctors that you deal with on a "daily basis", as going on record contradicting the CDC, Tony Fauci the head of the NIAID, the director of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Infectious Disease Society of America, and literally countless medical professionals around the country who are saying that a date should not be set on lifting social distancing until we actually have control of the spread of the disease.

Seriously just name one that will go on record as agreeing with your 1984-biology-class understanding of infectious diseases, and humorous faith in the veracity of the statistics published by the Chinese CDC, that all of the models are wrong, that every epidemiologist is wrong, that we should just all go back to work and hope for "herd immunity" to kick in sooner rather than later, and I'll stop posting for the duration of the quarantine.

DIFFICULTY: Even Trump disagrees with you now.

I've tried to help the folks on this board understand more about this virus with some very real, reliable information from the UPTODATE site.
The MDs running that site will continue to review the PEER-REVIEWED information and post responsible updates for the CLINICIANS they actually serve.

Even Dr. Fauci said last night--IF you had any true discernment--that their PROJECTIONS are nothing more than BEST GUESSES from the data that they currently possess.
He did go on to say the DATA is rapidly CHANGING each day as we learn more about this virus.
IN other words---even DR. FAUCI and Dr. BIRX are leaving themselves an "OUT" if and when their projections prove to be falsely elevated!

The ARTICLE that I posted from uptodate.com is PEER REVIEWED.....
EVERYTHING in that article is the summation of the work of SEVERAL DOCTORS who list their sources for over 20 pages of information provided.
I just listed a FEW excerpts from the article---did you even bother to read it its entirety?

UPTODATE is one of THE MOST RESPECTED online journals of medical information out there.
Therefore, everything in that article is the SUMMATION of PEER-REVIEWED information provided by untold numbers of DOCTORS.
IE, everything in there is a quotation from MDs.

I worked for the Tenn. Dept. of Health for 4+ years....and far be it from me to burst your bubble of ignorance....but most of those folks are far left-wing democrats.
And those health officials DO and WILL exaggerate and sensationalize information in order to instill what they consider to be a "healthy fear" in the masses to get them to COMPLY with their demands.
That's called "erring on the conservative side....showing them the worst-case scenario and willingly accepting lower numbers later" IN ORDER TO PROTECT the people from themselves.

Nevertheless, the OVERWHELMING TRUTH from the data in the article is that the VAST MAJORITY of Americans exposed to the virus will overcome it and LIVE.
Another OVERWHELMING TRUTH from the data is that older Americans with diabetes, asthma, cancer, and cardiac conditions need to keep their butts at home and isolated from the masses.
Also--as hard as it may be---family members need to STAY AWAY from the hospitals, nursing homes, assisted living, etc...etc... places in order to PROTECT their loved ones.

There's a LEGIT reason for why Governor Lee refuses to issue a SHELTER IN PLACE executive order.
And notice that the FAR LEFT liberals within the TMA keep trying to circumvent his decision by appealing to the Mayors in every town in this great state.

 

[TNnative]

I’m in the same camp. However economic collapse will result in deaths as well. This is going to likely be a game of high stakes whack a mole until a vaccine is developed which is a while off. You’re probably going to see on and off periods of social distancing, closures of non essential services and possibly even lockdowns in some effected areas. Even if we get it under control likely it comes back in the fall.

Well some doctor at Boston University just had some sort of breakthrough on testing the virus. Just head him talking about it in passing by the TV. Just a few minutes before they talked about those two cruise ships coming to Florida. So it may be they can figure out how to beat this thing sooner.

 

[TNnative]

I’m in the same camp. However economic collapse will result in deaths as well. This is going to likely be a game of high stakes whack a mole until a vaccine is developed which is a while off. You’re probably going to see on and off periods of social distancing, closures of non essential services and possibly even lockdowns in some effected areas. Even if we get it under control likely it comes back in the fall.

Well some doctor at Boston University named Robert Davey just had some sort of breakthrough on testing the virus. Just head him talking about it in passing by the TV. Just a few minutes before they talked about those two cruise ships coming to Florida. So it may be they can figure out how to beat this thing sooner than later.

 

[EZE]

Canceling Wimbledon is hitting closer and closer to September.

 

[VFL1953]

So look, MikeVol.......Your love of capital letters does not make your point more relevant, ok? And your frequent references to "far left-wing democrats " exposes your inherent biases. You might think about taking a step back from your emotions and reassess. When I read your posts I see an ideological agenda, not a reasoned, logical position.

 

[Vol423]

Canceling Wimbledon is hitting closer and closer to September.

May as well cancel Wimbledon for eternity. Tennis is a dead sport.

 

[MikeVol44]

So look, MikeVol.......Your love of capital letters does not make your point more relevant, ok? And your frequent references to "far left-wing democrats " exposes your inherent biases. You might think about taking a step back from your emotions and reassess. When I read your posts I see an ideological agenda, not a reasoned, logical position.

I really don't care for your opinion, but respect your freedom to post it.

My agenda is singular...and my only concern is the truth.

And the truth is that we don't really have enough data to accurately determine the mortality rate from this virus.

We do know that people 65+ years of age with multiple other health conditions (diabetes, htn, asthma, cardiac problems, cancer) should stay home for their own protection.

We know that nursing homes, hospitals, assisted living facilities, etc...etc... should not allow visitation from family members or friends for the protection of their residents.

The overwhelming majority of deaths from COVID-19 occur in the folks 65+ years of age with multiple co-morbidities.

These "at-risk" folks are comprised mainly of retirees in our society--the key word there is "mainly."
IF there is a mandatory "stay in the house" order it should be for these folks.

The general public and family members should be banned from entering nursing homes, assisted living homes, etc...etc... for the protection of those folks who cannot protect themselves.

We do know that 80+% of the folks infected with COVID-19 have mild cases that resolve.
We do know that about 10-15% more of the folks progress to non-critical, but serious symptoms that do not result in death.
And we know that less than 50% of the remaining 5% of the population who develop critical symptoms actually die.

All this means that the overwhelming majority of people exposed to this virus will not die, and will not require hospitalization.

What do you know?

 

[EZE]

May as well cancel Wimbledon for eternity. Tennis is a dead sport.

Ridiculous comment. So, let me get this straight...if a sport isn’t of interest to YOU, it should be cancelled?

I’m not particularly interested in tennis, either, but Wimbledon is one of the great sports events of the world...the Masters of tennis. At least one source ranks it as the eighth best event in sports. Bleacher Report.

 

[DaddyChad]

Canceling Wimbledon is hitting closer and closer to September.

I mean they’ve already moved back the Olympics. I have little doubt college football will not happen this fall. Honestly I could see games pushed back all the way till 2022.

 

[DaddyChad]

I really don't care for your opinion, but respect your freedom to post it.

My agenda is singular...and my only concern is the truth.

And the truth is that we don't really have enough data to accurately determine the mortality rate from this virus.

We do know that people 65+ years of age with multiple other health conditions (diabetes, htn, asthma, cardiac problems, cancer) should stay home for their own protection.

We know that nursing homes, hospitals, assisted living facilities, etc...etc... should not allow visitation from family members or friends for the protection of their residents.

The overwhelming majority of deaths from COVID-19 occur in the folks 65+ years of age with multiple co-morbidities.

These "at-risk" folks are comprised mainly of retirees in our society--the key word there is "mainly."
IF there is a mandatory "stay in the house" order it should be for these folks.

The general public and family members should be banned from entering nursing homes, assisted living homes, etc...etc... for the protection of those folks who cannot protect themselves.

We do know that 80+% of the folks infected with COVID-19 have mild cases that resolve.
We do know that about 10-15% more of the folks progress to non-critical, but serious symptoms that do not result in death.
And we know that less than 50% of the remaining 5% of the population who develop critical symptoms actually die.

All this means that the overwhelming majority of people exposed to this virus will not die, and will not require hospitalization.

What do you know?

I was listening to Fauci on YouTube today. He said the numbers were a lot higher on the serious cases for the younger population than they initially thought as well. A lot of statistics are skewed bc the numbers out of China are absolute BS. There’s some other statistical variations as well in countries like Russia; they paint it like Corona is being contained and not a huge issue but there’s been a spike in pneumonia related deaths which are an outlier.

 

[VFL1953]

"And the truth is that we don't really have enough data to accurately determine the mortality rate from this virus. "

And that, for me, is enough reason to be cautious, at least until we do get a better handle on the mortality rate.

 

[EZE]

British Open (late July) now being reported as being cancelled. It has to cancel by a deadline to receive insurance payment, so that is a consideration.

IMO, it’s way too early to be canceling fall sports, but I guess there are a lot of business and logistical reasons that the decisions might be made sooner rather than later.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

No way we have a football season unless this drastically turns around

 

[VolFaninFla]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/heres-the-biggest-factor-for-college-football-returning-this-fall-014311216.htm

While much of the money from college football comes from television revenue, there’s still significant ticket revenue that can reach as much as $50 million annually for top programs. Losing that revenue wouldn’t be appealing, as the opportunity to delay the sport to the second semester and playing then would be more appealing to programs than playing in empty stadiums.

There’s also little chance from a liability perspective that schools would invite tens of thousands of fans to crowd into a stadium when they’ve deemed it unsafe for the regular student population to return. The notions of large crowds on campuses seems far away.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby delivered a clear answer when asked if games could be played in the fall without students on campus. “No,” he said. “The participants are students.”

Things are looking bleak for a 2020 season.

Here is one of the responses to the article. I would be curious to hear from any lawyers on this site to see their opinions.
I say there will not be college football under current laws and mindset.
The liability would be too great and no insurance company will cover the costs if a player get the virus. There are 893 football colleges at all 5 NCAA division levels and only about the top 50 are real money makers.
Assuming no fans.
To make it safe would require a million + of tests for the players and staff as everyone would need to be tested every at least once every week during the season and most likely more times per week.
Would a University and the surrounding area want a team from an area with active cases to come to their community. Add in visiting fans and riots will happen.

So unless a blanket immunity from liability law is passed and the mindset is changed to we will all get the virus there will be not college football this fall.

 

[sjt18]

11 million Americans make up the "at-risk" population most likely to die from Covid 19 should they be infected. Across all age groups. Trying to build "herd immunity" in 3 months by letting the disease spread unabated puts all of those people at risk.

So cite even one of these doctors that you deal with on a "daily basis", as going on record contradicting the CDC, Tony Fauci the head of the NIAID, the director of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Infectious Disease Society of America, and literally countless medical professionals around the country who are saying that a date should not be set on lifting social distancing until we actually have control of the spread of the disease.

Seriously just name one that will go on record as agreeing with your 1984-biology-class understanding of infectious diseases, and humorous faith in the veracity of the statistics published by the Chinese CDC, that all of the models are wrong, that every epidemiologist is wrong, that we should just all go back to work and hope for "herd immunity" to kick in sooner rather than later, and I'll stop posting for the duration of the quarantine.

DIFFICULTY: Even Trump disagrees with you now.

So essentially shut the economy down and drive it into a depression is your answer because you "don't know" what will happen or we can't control the spread of a virus? Viruses are NEVER fully controlled.

About 25,000 people die in the world each day from starvation. Comparatively that's actually a historic low rate. However pushing the world over into a depression will explode that number. People are REALISTICALLY talking about 30% unemployment in the US by this fall if these overreactions do not stop. During the last depression, the US was 70% rural and 30% urban. There was at least a chance that most of the population could grow or hunt their own food. Our population is now 3 times what it was then. There were about 36 million urban Americans in 1930. There are now close to 250 million. An economic depression WILL result in people in these cities dying from exposure and starvation.... or else they'll arm themselves and kill others for what they need.

If you and @VFL1953 get your way and the risk has to be ZERO before we go back to normal... how do you propose to even provide the needs for shelter, water, food, and clothing for those 250 million much less the billions around the globe thrust back into extreme poverty? How many Americans and especially the old are dependent on routine medication to survive? If we go into a depression there will be no money to buy those drugs even if they're available... which they probably won't be.

Some of you are EXTRAORDINARILY short sighted and shallow when you look at this. We ALWAYS balance risks. We did not shut the economy down in 2017-2018 when almost a million people were hospitalized in one of our worst flu seasons... with as many as 60 million people infected and between 60,000-70,000 dead. Because we DID NOT shut the economy down then... we have resources to fight this now.

 

[sjt18]

When unguarded, honest, and not in front of cameras... here's what the good Dr Fauci said... of course the media hype machine wants none of this:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

[Dudleys87]

I don’t know much about it but the PTSD that some will have will he had as well. I hope we can find ways to help these people work through things.

 

[catss350]

Good lawd, I hope they play! I/we need something to hope for!

 

[BeardedVol]

So essentially shut the economy down and drive it into a depression is your answer because you "don't know" what will happen or we can't control the spread of a virus? Viruses are NEVER fully controlled.

About 25,000 people die in the world each day from starvation. Comparatively that's actually a historic low rate. However pushing the world over into a depression will explode that number. People are REALISTICALLY talking about 30% unemployment in the US by this fall if these overreactions do not stop. During the last depression, the US was 70% rural and 30% urban. There was at least a chance that most of the population could grow or hunt their own food. Our population is now 3 times what it was then. There were about 36 million urban Americans in 1930. There are now close to 250 million. An economic depression WILL result in people in these cities dying from exposure and starvation.... or else they'll arm themselves and kill others for what they need.

If you and @VFL1953 get your way and the risk has to be ZERO before we go back to normal... how do you propose to even provide the needs for shelter, water, food, and clothing for those 250 million much less the billions around the globe thrust back into extreme poverty? How many Americans and especially the old are dependent on routine medication to survive? If we go into a depression there will be no money to buy those drugs even if they're available... which they probably won't be.

Some of you are EXTRAORDINARILY short sighted and shallow when you look at this. We ALWAYS balance risks. We did not shut the economy down in 2017-2018 when almost a million people were hospitalized in one of our worst flu seasons... with as many as 60 million people infected and between 60,000-70,000 dead. Because we DID NOT shut the economy down then... we have resources to fight this now.

What do the number of deaths due to starvation, over the entire world, have to do with the infectiousness of covid 19 and the impact of unabated transmission throughout the the United States? Why are you resorting to a straw man argument? We aren't going to starve to death because we have to social distance and close restaurants and limit social gatherings for 30 days.

If our government wasn't completely and utterly incompetent across the board, steps would have been taken no later than the first week of February, and some of this could be mitigated. As it stands now, with half the states including Tennessee still not taking the spread of this seriously, the scenario is going to be dragged out longer and longer. The magnitude of the economic fallout of this situation, sits squarely on our leaders and their inaction.

I've posted my sources numerous times: CDC, NIAID, Harvard Medical, Johns Hopkins, VCU Department of Infections Diseases, UW Institute for Health Metrics, and on and on and on; feel free to post yours.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

My heart voted "yes," but my head says there won't be a 2020 football season. Probably not a 2021 season either. Although I think most business will be returning to normal well before 2021, I think mass sporting events will likely not happen until the vaccine is available. And that is not going to be for another year, at the very best. More likely at least 18 months.

Below is a snippet of a story from the WSJ, about an Italian soccer match that appears to have been a major contributor that country's problems with the virus. No person in authority is going to allow 80,000 people to go into close proximity until the vaccine is available. Maybe games can be played without fans in the stands, but player safety is a major issue too. So, I see no football for the next two seasons, unless somehow the vaccine is available sooner.

"Atalanta fans were walking into a petri dish. In a single mass gathering, they were about to prove how sporting events could end up at the center of a global pandemic.

By then, the coronavirus was spreading through untold numbers of asymptomatic carriers. Forty thousand bouncing, hugging soccer fans were the perfect vector: Experts are now convinced that Atalanta’s 4-1 win over Valencia was a catalyst in turning Lombardy into one of the worst-hit regions on the planet. The coronavirus was so present inside the stadium that night that once Valencia returned to Spain, 35% of its traveling squad eventually tested positive.

'Two weeks after Feb. 19, there was an incredible explosion of cases,” said Dr. Francesco Le Foche, an immunologist in charge of infectious disease at Policlinico Umberto I in Rome. “The match played a huge role in disseminating coronavirus throughout Lombardy and in Bergamo in particular.'”

 

[VFL1953]

What do the number of deaths due to starvation, over the entire world, have to do with the infectiousness of covid 19 and the impact of unabated transmission throughout the the United States? Why are you resorting to a straw man argument? We aren't going to starve to death because we have to social distance and close restaurants and limit social gatherings for 30 days.

If our government wasn't completely and utterly incompetent across the board, steps would have been taken no later than the first week of February, and some of this could be mitigated. As it stands now, with half the states including Tennessee still not taking the spread of this seriously, the scenario is going to be dragged out longer and longer. The magnitude of the economic fallout of this situation, sits squarely on our leaders and their inaction.

I've posted my sources numerous times: CDC, NIAID, Harvard Medical, Johns Hopkins, VCU Department of Infections Diseases, UW Institute for Health Metrics, and on and on and on; feel free to post yours.

Well, as is generally the case with SJT word salad, he often mistakes assumptions for facts, and is always convinced his opinions are true and correct. While that is only mildly annoying during discussions about football, it is quite something else regarding this subject. We can take some solace in the fact that he is not in charge of....well, anything, that I know of.

 

[mercuryvol]

Well, as is generally the case with SJT word salad, he often mistakes assumptions for facts, and is always convinced his opinions are true and correct. While that is only mildly annoying during discussions about football, it is quite something else regarding this subject. We can take some solace in the fact that he is not in charge of....well, anything, that I know of.

Wrong. He is in charge of “Often wrong, never in doubt.”

 

[sjt18]

What do the number of deaths due to starvation, over the entire world, have to do with the infectiousness of covid 19 and the impact of unabated transmission throughout the the United States? Why are you resorting to a straw man argument?

We are RIGHT NOW shutting down about a third of our economy... and those you agree with say it needs to stay that way until we have the virus "under control"... and openly talk about maintaining these extreme measures through July or longer. That is almost certain to cause an economic depression that destroys businesses in such a way that they do not come back even if we're given the "all clear". Realistic projections say that our unemployment rate will hit 30% if we do that.

That 25,000 will EXPLODE if we fall into a depression. So you are willing to trade 10's of thousands dying of starvation and exposure each day to reduce deaths from a virus by a fraction of that number? Are you willing to see our children and grandchildren endure a depression far worse than the last one even if the worst current estimates for mortality are right?

If the choice is me dying or destroying the future of my kids... that choice is easy.

We aren't going to starve to death because we have to social distance and close restaurants and limit social gatherings for 30 days.

If that results in an economic depression then that's EXACTLY what will happen. We are now an urban society. IIRC, the supply line that fills grocery stores is about 30 days long. That's how long it could be before people start getting hungry. Electricity isn't free. If people can't pay for it... how many people will die from summer heat?

How long do you think people or the US government can borrow money that has NO means of being repaid? We are at the edge even by shutting down April. We've already destroyed the wealth increase of the last 4 years. Last week we set a record for unemployment claims... the 6.6 million just announced is DOUBLE that record. We aren't sliding toward an economic depression... we're in a free fall.

If our government wasn't completely and utterly incompetent across the board, steps would have been taken no later than the first week of February, and some of this could be mitigated.

Really? How's that? The numbers just don't support that. We are sitting on about 216k confirmed cases. Actual cases are probably around 1 million. That is still DWARFED by the 40-50 million flu cases. We have about 5,000 deaths from Covid in about 3 months. We've had 3 to 5 times that many deaths from seasonal flu during the SAME PERIOD.... without the panic.

As it stands now, with half the states including Tennessee still not taking the spread of this seriously, the scenario is going to be dragged out longer and longer. The magnitude of the economic fallout of this situation, sits squarely on our leaders and their inaction.

Not true at all. One of the most critical factors in overcoming any outbreak like this is the development of herd immunity. That only happens as people come in contact with the virus. The less densely populated states will have the impact spread out.

I've posted my sources numerous times: CDC, NIAID, Harvard Medical, Johns Hopkins, VCU Department of Infections Diseases, UW Institute for Health Metrics, and on and on and on; feel free to post yours.

See post 391. I see the same stuff coming out every day. I have to implement the measures we're talking about whether it makes any sense or not.

This is a media frenzy more than science. No one wants to be the guy who underestimates the risk... and there is NO real costs to those who are massively overestimating the risks.

Numbers wise... do we destroy the economy that feeds, shelters, and clothes all of us to save .05% of the population (at the high end) when it will LIKELY result in far MORE people dying? If our economy shrinks 30% then masses of people will die when they are unable to get or afford the medicines that keep them alive.

 

[sjt18]

Well, as is generally the case with SJT word salad, he often mistakes assumptions for facts, and is always convinced his opinions are true and correct. While that is only mildly annoying during discussions about football, it is quite something else regarding this subject. We can take some solace in the fact that he is not in charge of....well, anything, that I know of.

LOL... assumptions for facts? Good grief. You are swallowing these media narratives wholesale and their reporting of "modeling" that will pretty much "suggest" anything dependent on the numbers you put in.

Here are some "facts" for you that are just... facts. We have about 30,000 people or more die each year of the seasonal flu. An average year is 40-50 thousand. It is accepted. It is understood. If the mortality rate for the flu were calculated the way the mortality rate for Covid is being calculated... deaths/confirmed cases... the death rate for seasonal flu in 2017-2018 would have been over 5%. The CDC through historical "modeling" multiplies the number of hospitalizations for the flu by a factor somewhere between 30 and 60 to determine their denominator for flu deaths. They "estimate" 60 million people had the flu that year because most people either do not have symptoms or else self-treat.

You can take "solace" until you lose your job and there are none... until so many people are unemployed that the government cannot borrow the money to send you check... until you destroy the future for our kids and grandkids. You can take solace until every shelf is empty and not just the one for toilet paper. You can take solace until those "essential" industries start being shutdown by the collapse of the economy.

We are A LOT closer to the edge than you think. We cannot afford to stay in shutdown mode much longer. If you don't care or think you are somehow insulated from it... then just take "solace".

 

[sjt18]

Wrong. He is in charge of “Often wrong, never in doubt.”

I don't claim to always be "right". But I don't post opinions when I have not tried to reasonably account for the facts.

Here's a fact for you. We actually have a "lab test" for Covid-19. The Diamond Princess cruise ship had about 3700 passengers and crew. The passengers were skewed heavily toward the elderly meaning there were an inordinate number of "high risk" people on board. They were on the ship for more than a week sharing the same facilities to include dining for over a week before the infection was discovered. They were INTENSELY exposed to the virus.

The vast majority were tested. Out of 3700, only 700 tested positive for the virus. About 400 of those who tested positive had NO symptoms. The remainder had symptoms ranging from very mild to death. That means an old population who essentially spent a weak in a Covid-19 Petri dish had less than a 20% chance of contracting the virus. Just the common sense measures without the extremes would have reduced that infection rate tremendously.


Believe that's understated? The current infection rate at the "epicenter" for Covid-19 in the US (NY) is .44%.

The NYPD as of a few days ago had had 3 people die from Covid-19 out of over 42,000 employees. Granted that is a population made up primarily of people outside the "high risk" sections... but that suggests that reasonably healthy people have less than a .01% chance of dying from Covid-19 even in a business that brings them in constant contact with a broad section of society.