Realistically, do you believe there will be a 2020 season?

[GoVols64]

Keep telling yourself that. In time, I think everyone ends up exposed. Social distancing just buys time to manage it. Everyone just needs to get stronger to survive it. I just hope bourbon is part of the cure. On that, I am well prepared.

Me too my friend! I’ve been drinking beer, wine, whiskey and bourbon for weeks, so far so good!

Not everyone gets this bug. The silver lining here is that most healthy people will be fine even if they do. Again, the problem is how fast people who need advanced care get sick. If we exceed treatment capacity people will die who would have otherwise lived.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

FWIW, I jogged a few loops of the footpath that encircles the David Lipscomb athletic fields this morning. There was a group of 8-9 guys doing footwork, sprints and passing drills on one of the practice fields. They were either college players or most developed H.S. players that the Mustangs have ever fielded. People expect to being playing in the Fall.

 

[MikeVol44]

Mine is more of a "hope so" than confidence in there actually being one.

Here's a very good article from a very reliable source.

UpToDate

 

[VolAllen]

So it looks like the state of Virginia has issued a lockdown until June 10th. Not sure if this changes anything or not regarding the football season, but it’s definitely not looking good.

 

[BP4Prez]

So it looks like the state of Virginia has issued a lockdown until June 10th. Not sure if this changes anything or not regarding the football season, but it’s definitely not looking good.

I saw this too. This is ridiculous and absurd. Maybe it does go in this long, I don’t know, but to issue a lockdown for the next 2.5 months is absurd. Put it for 2 or even 4 weeks and then reassess.

 

[GoVols64]

I saw this too. This is ridiculous and absurd. Maybe it does go in this long, I don’t know, but to issue a lockdown for the next 2.5 months is absurd. Put it for 2 or even 4 weeks and then reassess.

I wonder if they are sending a message and trying to manage heads a bit. Is it worse to keep getting extended or know you’re in it until late June?

Probably an argument both ways but when deployed it was always better to go home on time than get extended multiple times.

 

[DaddyChad]

I saw this too. This is ridiculous and absurd. Maybe it does go in this long, I don’t know, but to issue a lockdown for the next 2.5 months is absurd. Put it for 2 or even 4 weeks and then reassess.

They can always rescind the order if this clears up. It’s not ridiculous nor absurd. Most people still can’t wrap their heads around how serious this is.

 

[VolDave53]

I don’t think the economy can afford to keep things locked down very long. Too many jobs being lost. Too many people being driven into poverty. Coronavirus is serious, but at some point people will have to accept its existence as a new normal

This is essentially a discussion as to whether the world commits to economic ruin (big picture beyond CFB) or herd immunity (the Swedish model). The ultimate end to global economic collapse is more dead from starvation and exposure than from the virus. The leaders of the sundry countries have to arrive at the analysis of balancing the risks and taking a path that most benefits society. Do we destroy the world as we know it with somewhat stable global interests for the benefit of a small percentage, or do we allow nature to take the course of immunity?

 

[BeardedVol]

This is essentially a discussion as to whether the world commits to economic ruin (big picture beyond CFB) or herd immunity (the Swedish model). The ultimate end to global economic collapse is more dead from starvation and exposure than from the virus. The leaders of the sundry countries have to arrive at the analysis of balancing the risks and taking a path that most benefits society. Do we destroy the world as we know it with somewhat stable global interests for the benefit of a small percentage, or do we allow nature to take the course of immunity?

Sweden that is seeing a higher doubling rate than Italy? Their attempt at fast-tracking heard immunity, is failing. They are essentially resigning to the fact that at-risk individuals are going to get covid 19 and die from it.
Sweden: coronavirus cases 2020 | Statista

 

[OneManGang]

I wonder if they are sending a message and trying to manage heads a bit. Is it worse to keep getting extended or know you’re in it until late June?

Probably an argument both ways but when deployed it was always better to go home on time than get extended multiple times.

On a lighter note, GoVols64, anyone who has the Flying Tigers insignia for an avatar has my vote! The insignia was designed by Disney for the AVG (American Volunteer Group) and passed on to the 23rd Fighter Group after the AVG disbanded in mid-1942.

You can see the emblem on the fuselage of these Tigers from the 3rd Squadron nicknamed the "Hell's Angels." Note too that these are AVG planes with the Chinese markings. (USAF)

 

[wtmvol]

I saw this too. This is ridiculous and absurd. Maybe it does go in this long, I don’t know, but to issue a lockdown for the next 2.5 months is absurd. Put it for 2 or even 4 weeks and then reassess.

I'm in Virginia. The date is subject to change. I think putting a date on it was good to reinforce the serious nature of this. We've had knuckleheads congregating in parks, beaches, etc as if this is a good time to party. June 10 drives home the point. If by the beginning of May things are much better then the restrictions can be eased.

 

[VolDave53]

Sweden that is seeing a higher doubling rate than Italy? Their attempt at fast-tracking heard immunity, is failing. They are essentially resigning to the fact that at-risk individuals are going to get covid 19 and die from it.
Sweden: coronavirus cases 2020 | Statista

That may be just what the doctor ordered. I am in the "at risk" age group. Do I want to die? No, but I will someday and quite frankly, I would rather die than have the world thrown into a new Dark Ages, of which we are on the precipice if we continue with the current methodology. JMHO.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

Sweden that is seeing a higher doubling rate than Italy? Their attempt at fast-tracking heard immunity, is failing. They are essentially resigning to the fact that at-risk individuals are going to get covid 19 and die from it.
Sweden: coronavirus cases 2020 | Statista

Which, for the umpteenth time, is a nice strategy that avoids economic ruin provided that the mortality rate doesn’t reach an unacceptable level (and, of course, it won’t).

 

[BeardedVol]

That may be just what the doctor ordered. I am in the "at risk" age group. Do I want to die? No, but I will someday and quite frankly, I would rather die than have the world thrown into a new Dark Ages, of which we are on the precipice if we continue with the current methodology. JMHO.

The problem is being in an "at risk group" can be as simple as having hypertension and taking an ACE inhibitor, and you don't really have a say in whether you want to die or not if your symptomatic o asymptomatic neighbor who knows that they've been exposed and still decides to go out and get on the bus with you.

 

[BeardedVol]

Which, for the umpteenth time, is a nice strategy that avoids economic ruin provided that the mortality rate doesn’t reach an unacceptable level (and, of course, it won’t).

Please post your medical and/or scientific credentials and a link to the research you have done to on the subject, to qualify your statements.

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

College football a go or no-go? Rece Davis optimistic season will be played

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

Please post your medical and/or scientific credentials and a link to the research you have done to on the subject, to qualify your statements.

Wow, what a compelling video from a “world famous” surgeon that doesn’t at all rely upon conjecture and assumptions to build the “MATH and SCIENCE” regarding the mortality rate increasing! You really do love your hokum, don’t you?

 

[BeardedVol]

Wow, what a compelling video from a “world famous” surgeon that doesn’t at all rely upon conjecture and assumptions to build the “MATH and SCIENCE” regarding the mortality rate increasing! You really do love your hokum, don’t you?

I see you didn't even watch the video.

United States Coronavirus: 165,392 Cases and 3,182 Deaths - Worldometer

P.S. Still waiting on your credentials

 

[GoVols64]

On a lighter note, GoVols64, anyone who has the Flying Tigers insignia for an avatar has my vote! The insignia was designed by Disney for the AVG (American Volunteer Group) and passed on to the 23rd Fighter Group after the AVG disbanded in mid-1942.

You can see the emblem on the fuselage of these Tigers from the 3rd Squadron nicknamed the "Hell's Angels." Note too that these are AVG planes with the Chinese markings. (USAF)

That's awesome! I haven't seen this photo before. 1-229th AVN (Bragg at the time now Ft. Lewis) tied into the lineage as the Tigersharks (AH-64D). Thanks for sharing this, very cool! Here was our patch before I got out and an aircraft w/sharks teeth. Not my units aircraft but a good representation. We went to all black during deployment as the white stood out and that's not a good thing for obvious reasons.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

I see you didn't even watch the video.

United States Coronavirus: 165,392 Cases and 3,182 Deaths - Worldometer

P.S. Still waiting on your credentials

My credentials are being someone capable of doing basic math (3,182/165,392), which is apparently more than can be said for you if this mortality rate and the video you provided actually convince you that the situation at hand is untenable.

 

[GoVols64]

Please post your medical and/or scientific credentials and a link to the research you have done to on the subject, to qualify your statements.

This guy is making valid points we should all be thinking about. I don't agree with everything he says due to some assumptions but they could be correct. While he is talking worst case the math of what is possible should scare all of us and is the same that other physicians and administrators are talking about. The Italian example isn't representative of the US as their population is older but we are on the trajectory he outlines regardless.

Assumption: 40% - 70% of U.S. Population will be infected. I will use 50% to be relatively conservative.

331M people in US
165.5M (50%) get infected
33.1M (20%) will need advanced care
628k (.019%) could die

Most experts agree the death toll will not be this high and are saying up to 200k. Let's downplay that even further and land in the middle at 100k. That's more American deaths than the Korean War, Vietnam War, Desert Storm, OEF & OIF (Afghanistan and Iraq) combined. We have already lost 3,178 people! As the video points out the secondary effects will limit the healthcare systems ability to deal with Heart, Stroke and Trauma cases. I can't say to what degree as it will be regionalized (Don't get in a wreck around NYC right now) so others may be affected less but it is absolutely a concern.

Another good point is the reduction in capacity to treat people limited by available people as providers get sick or access to needed equipment falters.

Bottom line I simply don't know whats up for debate? There are BEST CASE, tens of thousands that will die and possibly into the hundreds of thousands.........

 

[BeardedVol]

This guy is making valid points we should all be thinking about. I don't agree with everything he says due to some assumptions but they could be correct. While he is talking worst case the math of what is possible should scare all of us and is the same that other physicians and administrators are talking about. The Italian example isn't representative of the US as their population is older but we are on the trajectory he outlines regardless.

Assumption: 40% - 70% of U.S. Population will be infected. I will use 50% to be relatively conservative.

331M people in US
165.5M (50%) get infected
33.1M (20%) will need advanced care
628k (.019%) could die

Most experts agree the death toll will not be this high and are saying up to 200k. Let's downplay that even further and land in the middle at 100k. That's more American deaths than the Korean War, Vietnam War, Desert Storm, OEF & OIF (Afghanistan and Iraq) combined. We have already lost 3,178 people! As the video points out the secondary effects will limit the healthcare systems ability to deal with Heart, Stroke and Trauma cases. I can't say to what degree as it will be regionalized (Don't get in a wreck around NYC right now) so others may be affected less but it is absolutely a concern.

Another good point is the reduction in capacity to treat people limited by available people as providers get sick or access to needed equipment falters.

Bottom line I simply don't know whats up for debate? There are BEST CASE, tens of thousands that will die and possibly into the hundreds of thousands.........

The reality is that we don't know that Italy is not what we are looking, we are still at minimum 2 weeks from a possible peak. What we do know, is that at least 11 million Americans fall into the 'at-risk' categories:

11 Million in U.S. at Serious Risk If Infected With COVID-19

This idea that we can let it spread unimpeded and just trust that over time we will develop herd immunity is ridiculous.

 

[GoVols64]

The reality is that we don't know that Italy is not what we are looking, we are still at minimum 2 weeks from a possible peak. What we do know, is that at least 11 million Americans fall into the 'at-risk' categories:

11 Million in U.S. at Serious Risk If Infected With COVID-19

This idea that we can let it spread unimpeded and just trust that over time we will develop herd immunity is ridiculous.

I'm in this group and I sure as heck agree. Until there is an effective treatment and/or vaccine we need to be careful.

 

[VolDave53]

I'm in this group and I sure as heck agree. Until there is an effective treatment and/or vaccine we need to be careful.

Agree, be careful. I was labeled a "germaphobe" by my kids years ago. Now I look like a prophet, LOL. But anyway, be careful with the world economy as well. Remember, if it all crashes, no one will be able to get ANY treatment. The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 was much more virulent, violent and deadly. Indeed the herd immunity worked as nature usually does, but at a cost of 50 million shortened lives. Shortened because we all are going to die sometime, just a matter of when.

 

[fifties fan]

Go to Dailymail.com . There is an article forecasting {by graphs} the infection rates/fatalities by state. If correct, Tn has 4-6 weeks before things stop getting worse