Oliviyah Edwards requesting out

[tdk333]

Again we had plenty of allegedly elite players last year & they couldn’t hit a layup, a free throw or figure out how to not foul. It’s not about getting elite players. Kim stated when she first took the job that just because you’re the number 1 player that maybe you don’t fit what we are trying to do so maybe the number 50 player does fit. I think last season, with our incoming freshman (aside from Jaida & Mia) Kim fell into the very trope she knew she couldn’t. Trying to make a square peg fit into a round hole with the portal pickups & the freshman. It stands to reason she may have leaned a bit too much on Gabe for his “sec” knowledge & while he went & recruited some of the “best” players out there, he didn’t recruit the best ones for this particular system. None of those kids had the mental fortitude to withstand any adversity. They weren’t ready, they need to develop that trait. We need to go after the kids that know what it takes to get thru adversity & that have good attitudes & understand that bad body language will kill a teams mindset. We need leaders on the court. We had exactly 0 this year. Jewel, Tess, & Sam were the leaders for the sweet 16 team yr one. & no one thought they’d make it that far. If any can remember… & this is an honest question what were those kids rankings coming out of high school, were any of them top 10, top 20 recruits? (Last years S 16 team)

Agree.

 

[1morevol]

I wouldn’t consider her “being burned” she made the choice to step away. Rosters get up ended all the time no matter what school it is or how that school’s season ended. You either choose to follow thru with your commitments or you don’t. She could’ve stayed. & made her way on this team & been the biggest star with a solid supporting cast or go to an already made roster & ride their coattails. It is what it is.

"

 

[volfan102455]

You also have to believe that the two things, heart and hustle and actual talent cannot coexist.

I just don’t happen to believe those things, and deep down I don’t think many people actually do either. The best teams are the ones who are able to combine those two vital elements and many successfully do. At this level, effort and endurance alone will never be a separator.

You said it well, the best teams, teams that win championships at the D1 level are the ones were heart, hustle and talent coexist.

We will win some games with heart and hustle, but it alone will not win championships at this level.

 

[volfan102455]

The answer is Pat had far superior talent when she usef it

Also, she didn’t use it her whole career. Unfortunately Geno exposed the mismatches tragically beginning in the early 2000. Also, at that time, talent of ball handling and coaching got much better. As a result, Pat publicly said she needed a new system and to her great credit went out and looked for one. Always love pressure D, but didnt stake her whole strategy on it

Pat was always learning - she never locked into a system so much that she couldn't throw it away when it wasn't working. Unfortunately, we have a coach that is going to do that. Personally, I think it may be an ego thing with her.

 

[madtownvol]

Honest question here...why would you say that? Last year uconn had Bueckers, Fudd and Strong with a few others not far behind and they won it all. I think it comes down to chemistry, buy-in (no super stars) and coaching. Your thoughts? Again, honest question...just curious why you think that. I mean look at ucla this year...5 in the first round!

Serious response, it was a snarky comment; why treat it as something that has any consequence?

But the underlying point of parody is the idea that the Caldwell's team is going to be much better with the players she is bringing in versus what team would have been with those who transferred out and de-committed. Then you have to ask, "well, how could that be possible?" We are back to those who claim that those exited high ranked players are just not as as hardworking, dedicated, morally virtuous. etc. as the mid-tier ones who have come into the team. Am I exaggerating a bit? Sure, but this mindset is not that far off from what fans need in order to believe that the 2026-27 LV team is going to better after losing its entire roster and a set of recruits that everyone was swooning over at the start of last season.

I am getting into broken record territory so we will see how it all plays out next season.

 

[glv98]

Where did she say she needed a new defensive system?? Evidence, quotes, etc.?? I readily remember her saying she needed a new offense and searching for the correct one but I never saw her say she needed a new defense.

All part of the same process. Basically she had to modernize. The reason she had to look for offense is because an old standby of hers, points off turnovers caused by defensive pressure, was no longer working. Talent level was equaling out, ball handling was becoming more elite, and coaching began to catch up. Opponents began to have a say.

When she began to incorporate an actual half court offense, there was no need for the constant trapping which was frequently getting beat anyway. Pat always loved pressure D for sure, but was able to use it more strategically and situationally once she wasn't depending on it for offensive output.

 

[NOLACHUCKEYTOM]

All part of the same process. Basically she had to modernize. The reason she had to look for offense is because an old standby of hers, points off turnovers caused by defensive pressure, was no longer working. Talent level was equaling out, ball handling was becoming more elite, and coaching began to catch up. Opponents began to have a say.

When she began to incorporate an actual half court offense, there was no need for the constant trapping which was frequently getting beat anyway. Pat always loved pressure D for sure, but was able to use it more strategically and situationally once she wasn't depending on it for offensive output.

She did not use it to create the entire offense, she used it to speed up the other team and create turnovers to get some easy baskets. She ran a pretty good 5 out motion offense that was based on quick passes, cuts and screens. She only pressed after made baskets and was always exploring ways to update her offense. Coach Kim needs to evolve her defense and offense and stop the too quick hockey changes and her press could be quite successful with the right athletes. UConn used the press quite successfully the last few seasons. Course they do have great athletes!

 

[madtownvol]

All part of the same process. Basically she had to modernize. The reason she had to look for offense is because an old standby of hers, points off turnovers caused by defensive pressure, was no longer working. Talent level was equaling out, ball handling was becoming more elite, and coaching began to catch up. Opponents began to have a say.

When she began to incorporate an actual half court offense, there was no need for the constant trapping which was frequently getting beat anyway. Pat always loved pressure D for sure, but was able to use it more strategically and situationally once she wasn't depending on it for offensive output.

Plus, much of the early 2000s narrative was that the game had "passed CPS by" during the long title drought between the Meeks and the Candace Parker eras. CPS biggest "innovation" was signing Candace Parker and then taking a risk on 5'2 JUCO Shannon Bobbitt which paid huge dividends. I also remember that era, also with Lex, Anosiki, and Alberta Auguste, was not so much about frenetic high pressing (though they did periodically "bring the dogs") but just intense man to man defense, as each of those players were lock down one-on-one defenders.

We know her response to losing Maya Moore to Geno. After that, the LVs were a good to very good team (as in the Glory Johnson years) but never really threatened for a title.

 

[RespectAPA]

There are no rotations at this level that consistently cover the gamble of the trap. The resulting “failure rate”also known as the easy layups, is one of the main reasons coaches quit using this system at this level30 years ago.

There's an analytical error here, where there's no acknowledgement that an opponent easy layup is only around plus 1 against expected value, [depending on opponent PPP] whereas a steal during your opponent's possession that becomes a Tennessee easy layup is plus 2 against expected value.

It's assumed that our steal-and-score 2s are equal value to their press-break 2s -- they're the same points on the board after all, right? But that completely ignores that our press successes are TWO THINGS: an easy 2, and an opponent possession that's 0'd. The impact on win probability for that is actually closer to a three pointer in a regular half court set*, which is huge!

And even if it doesn't turn into an easy 2, an interception is still a turnover, an opponent possession immediately goose-egg'd.

The opponent is still in control of what happens ultimately, but the numbers actually are in our favor if a coach ever refuses to compromise and builds a team around fearlessly hounding the offense all the way up and down the court.

Just because a turnover doesn't immediately change the scoreboard doesn't mean that their value should be disregarded...

*barring, of course, end-game scenarios where the exact scoreboard state matters. Down 1, a steal-and-score 2 is worth more in WP than a made 3. [I think]

 

[BBallNut]

There's an analytical error here, where there's no acknowledgement that an opponent easy layup is only around plus 1 against expected value, [depending on opponent PPP] whereas a steal during your opponent's possession that becomes a Tennessee easy layup is plus 2 against expected value.

It's assumed that our steal-and-score 2s are equal value to their press-break 2s -- they're the same points on the board after all, right? But that completely ignores that our press successes are TWO THINGS: an easy 2, and an opponent possession that's 0'd. The impact on win probability for that is approximately the same as a three pointer in a regular half court set*, which is huge!

And even if it doesn't turn into an easy 2, an interception is still a turnover, an opponent possession immediately goose-egg'd.

The opponent is still in control of what happens ultimately, but the numbers actually are in our favor if a coach ever refuses to compromise and builds a team around fearlessly hounding the offense all the way up and down the court.

Just because a turnover doesn't immediately change the scoreboard doesn't mean that their value should be disregarded...

*barring, of course, end-game scenarios where the exact scoreboard state matters. Down 1, a steal-and-score 2 is worth more in WP than a made 3. [I think]

All of this assumes that the press can be run without excess fouling. Tennessee was 324th in division one in fouls committed with about 19 per game. Those fouls will kill you two ways in close games. First, it gives up easy points on the line. Second, it changes how defense is played in the second half because coaches can’t risk having their best players foul out.

 

[glv98]

All of this assumes that the press can be run without excess fouling. Tennessee was 324th in division one in fouls committed with about 19 per game. Those fouls will kill you two ways in close games. First, it gives up easy points on the line. Second, it changes how defense is played in the second half because coaches can’t risk having their best players foul out.

Guess what? Excessive fouling is one of the reasons listed in that article I always talk about regarding why this type system fell out of favor. Common sense says the harder you guard and the longer you guard, (90 feet as opposed to half court), the more likely you are to foul. Not only does the excessive fouling affect players time on the court, every foul is another stoppage, which is counter purpose to trying to wear the other team down with pressure.

 

[NOLACHUCKEYTOM]

If you foul you have blown the press. Object is to trap ball handler in back court. Now they are being defended and the ten second clock is running down. You want to force a panicked bad pass that can be picked by teammates. You should not be slapping and grabbing for the ball like Cooper always did but shadowing the ball and creating panic.

 

[1morevol]

There's an analytical error here, where there's no acknowledgement that an opponent easy layup is only around plus 1 against expected value, [depending on opponent PPP] whereas a steal during your opponent's possession that becomes a Tennessee easy layup is plus 2 against expected value.

It's assumed that our steal-and-score 2s are equal value to their press-break 2s -- they're the same points on the board after all, right? But that completely ignores that our press successes are TWO THINGS: an easy 2, and an opponent possession that's 0'd. The impact on win probability for that is approximately the same as a three pointer in a regular half court set*, which is huge!

And even if it doesn't turn into an easy 2, an interception is still a turnover, an opponent possession immediately goose-egg'd.

The opponent is still in control of what happens ultimately, but the numbers actually are in our favor if a coach ever refuses to compromise and builds a team around fearlessly hounding the offense all the way up and down the court.

Just because a turnover doesn't immediately change the scoreboard doesn't mean that their value should be disregarded...

*barring, of course, end-game scenarios where the exact scoreboard state matters. Down 1, a steal-and-score 2 is worth more in WP than a made 3. [I think]

Interesting. What would be the value of an offensive rebound and miss the putback versus a steal off the press and miss the layup, or make the shot in both scenarios? Seems to me on both instances the opponent is, in effect, losing a possession?

 

[madtownvol]

There's an analytical error here, where there's no acknowledgement that an opponent easy layup is only around plus 1 against expected value, [depending on opponent PPP] whereas a steal during your opponent's possession that becomes a Tennessee easy layup is plus 2 against expected value.

It's assumed that our steal-and-score 2s are equal value to their press-break 2s -- they're the same points on the board after all, right? But that completely ignores that our press successes are TWO THINGS: an easy 2, and an opponent possession that's 0'd. The impact on win probability for that is approximately the same as a three pointer in a regular half court set*, which is huge!

And even if it doesn't turn into an easy 2, an interception is still a turnover, an opponent possession immediately goose-egg'd.

The opponent is still in control of what happens ultimately, but the numbers actually are in our favor if a coach ever refuses to compromise and builds a team around fearlessly hounding the offense all the way up and down the court.

Just because a turnover doesn't immediately change the scoreboard doesn't mean that their value should be disregarded...

*barring, of course, end-game scenarios where the exact scoreboard state matters. Down 1, a steal-and-score 2 is worth more in WP than a made 3. [I think]

That take is a little reductionist. A fully analytic assessment would need to take account some other considerations, including:

1. Ratio - for example if the LVs are giving up 3 easy buckets to 1 successful steal conversion, the numbers favor the opponent.

2. The broken press does not just result in lay-ups but also wide open 3s. Such conversions change the analytic outcomes.

3. The successful press does not always lead to a steal and score but also 10 second violations, balls lost out of bounds. These TO outcomes mean the Lvs have to convert the turnover into points via their half court sets. As an inefficient offense, I am confident the conversion rate was less than 100%.

4. High pressing creates more fouls and so the effects of putting a team earlier into the bonus and double bonus needs to be factored in.

Beyond the analytics, I find it interesting that ONLY Kim Caldwell has recognized this massive analytic advantage while teams like Uconn, UCLA, SC, and TX still made the Final Four playing stone age basketball.

 

[RespectAPA]

Interesting. What would be the value of an offensive rebound and miss the putback versus a steal off the press and miss the layup, or make the shot in both scenarios? Seems to me on both instances the opponent is, in effect, losing a possession?

Yeah, so in this case the WP change is going to be similar, but manifest differently. A steal-and-score is two positive results (+WP from defensive turnover, +WP from team score) whereas an offensive rebound is a positive result and a negative-result-denied (+WP from denying the opponent nullifying your possession, then +WP from team score)

The main difference here will be: how likely are you to score after each event? An open court steal leaves the opponent exposed defensively (you often get either a layup, or a wide open 3 with good rebound potential) whereas an offensive rebound nets you a free possession, but the quality of the possession will be lower, and will vary -- an offensive rebound by a tall forward or center that can be put back up for a short 2 attempt is better than an offensive rebound by a guard, midrange distance and with the defense set.

Hope that makes sense. If you assume a miss or a make after steal oRB, then the value of each is similar -- (perhaps the same?*) but the steal is going to be a bit better because the actual odds of a make are higher with an open-court steal than in a contested rebound.

WP impact by order would probably be

1a. Open court steal (fewer defenders in front of you, the better. Doesn't have to necessarily be in the backcourt, think Samara Spencer's interception vs. UConn which happened in the UConn frontcourt but became an easy 2 for Samara because nobody could catch her with how she accomplished it) which can either become an easy 2 or a wide open 3.

1b. Offensive rebound by a tall forward/center who can put up another shot right away

2a. Offensive rebound outside of the paint

3. Opponent dead ball turnover (good, but definitely not as great)

Coach's system emphasizes both the steals and the offensive rebounds, which certainly played a role in managing to win a national championship at a school that plays in a mid-minor D2 conference. She hasn't yet had a season at Tennessee that met the standards, but perhaps this year she'll be less timid about being aggressive on both fronts even against good teams.

*I think it'd be the same, since the gamestate is the same after either result. Opponent ball, same score, same time on the clock. So the main difference between the various types of turnovers and offensive rebounds will be the EV of the ensuing possession.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Of course we have to let her out. We should've fired Kim still should she is not worth keeping considering the circumstances of top recruited player leaving.

You would have to do some serious, serious convincing to get me to sign up to play in CKC’s system. It worked in D2 ball, but D1 athletes are a different breed. They actually train to stay on the floor for 40 minutes of intense action. Trying to tire them out simply doesn’t work.

 

[Volfan2012]

You would have to do some serious, serious convincing to get me to sign up to play in CKC’s system. It worked in D2 ball, but D1 athletes are a different breed. They actually train to stay on the floor for 40 minutes of intense action. Trying to tire them out simply doesn’t work.

Yes I was hoping Kim would figure that out eventually.

 

[LadyVol1908]

@Volstylexx are you hearing anything on Edwards possibly recommitting?

 

[ChelseaVol]

Austin Price says the staff is pushing hard to get Big O back. Obviously not much to this and I’m getting my hopes up 0%, but it’s nice to know they feel like the door isn’t slammed and locked shut on this.

 

[knoxvol52]

I will take 2 of every what you ladies and gentlemen are drinking...

 

[madtownvol]

Hey, some guy on the internet just posted that Rickea Jackson could possibly petition for two more years of college eligibility so that she might possibly consider playing for Kim Caldwelll!! And the inside word is that Kim Caldwell and staff are pushing very hard to pursue different possibilities and they have not formally denied that Rickea Jackson could possibly be one of thoese possibilities. So, this all could be possible.

Wowza!!!!!! Possibly big news!!!!

 

[VolXr1]

You would have to do some serious, serious convincing to get me to sign up to play in CKC’s system. It worked in D2 ball, but D1 athletes are a different breed. They actually train to stay on the floor for 40 minutes of intense action. Trying to tire them out simply doesn’t work.

name 1 team or player that plays all 40 mins giving 100% effort without subbing. Some of you all have no clue. Courts the same size at ALL levels. Ppl that play basketball has "trained" majority of their lives to play ball. Give me a break with the d1/d2 conditioning bs

 

[chuckiepoo]

Hey, some guy on the internet just posted that Rickea Jackson could possibly petition for two more years of college eligibility so that she might possibly consider playing for Kim Caldwelll!! And the inside word is that Kim Caldwell and staff are pushing very hard to pursue different possibilities and they have not formally denied that Rickea Jackson could possibly be one of thoese possibilities. So, this all could be possible.

Wowza!!!!!! Possibly big news!!!!

Sounds like you’ve been dosed!

 

[madtownvol]

Sounds like you’ve been dosed!

I admit, the elephant tranquilizer has some kick to it.....

 

[knoxvol52]

Hey, some guy on the internet just posted that Rickea Jackson could possibly petition for two more years of college eligibility so that she might possibly consider playing for Kim Caldwelll!! And the inside word is that Kim Caldwell and staff are pushing very hard to pursue different possibilities and they have not formally denied that Rickea Jackson could possibly be one of thoese possibilities. So, this all could be possible.

Wowza!!!!!! Possibly big news!!!!