Does having the best or highly ranked players matter? I personally think so. This is a working hypothesis and can be disproven but I am rolling with it until proven otherwise. Here's why. The best indicator I have for success at this time is the consistent recipe for past success.
Last 10 years of women's champions: (you can easily go back much further than this and it's the same exact pattern but for arguments sake)
2026: UCLA
Key Players: Lauren Betts - #1 recruit, Kiki Rice - #1 recruit
2025: UConn
Key Players: Paige Bueckers - #1 recruit, Azzi Fudd - #1 recruit, Sarah Strong #1 recruit
2024: South Carolina
Key Players: Kamilla Cardoso - top 5 recruit, Te-Hina Paopao - top 15 recruit, Raven Johnson - #2 recruit
2023: LSU
Key Players: Angel Reese #2 recruit, Flau'jae Johnson - top 25, Alexis Morris - top 10
2022: South Carolina
Key Players: Aliyah Boston - #1 recruit, Zia Cooke - #1 recruit, Destanni Henderson - top 10
2021: Stanford
Key Players: Hayley Jones - #1 recruit, Cam Brink - #3 recruit, Kiana Williams - top 10
2020: Covid
2019: Baylor
Key Players: NaLyssa Smith - #1 recruit, Lauren Cox - top 5
2018: Notre Dame
Key Players: Arike Ogunbowale - top 10, Jackie Young - #1 recruit
2017: South Carolina
Key Players: A'ja Wilson - #1 recruit. Has a statue lol
2016: UConn
Key Players: Stewie - #1 recruit, Moriah Jefferson - top 5
And from our very own Lady Vol Teams: 2008 Candace Parker, 2007 Candace Parker, 1998 Chamique Holdsclaw/Tamika Catchings, 1997 Chamique Holdsclaw, 1996 Chamique Holdsclaw, etc.
There are for sure some role players, some mid major talent, some jucos, all of that mixed in amongst the teams in these scenarios. But, the reality is, if you look at even the last decade+ of champions, every team had multiple top-tier recruits, often a #1 or multiple top 10-15 players. You don't just win with hard work and system. It's elite talent + system + development imo. I mean, we could reinvent the wheel but... not betting on it.
I want anyone who is kidding themselves that this doesn't matter to not be misled or deluded. It absolutely matters.