O/U win total 7.5

MWAVolfan

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I can think of 2 who did
PJ, you're right. MWA, you're wrong.

30 years ago...that's since 1991. Okay.

1993 - Phillip Fulmer - 10-2
2009 - Lane Kiffin - 7-6

You'd have been better off if you'd said "in 10 years" (or 11). But that's just Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt, and the world woulda said "duh" in response. Heh.

Yeah, but I don't recognize the existence of Lane Kiffin, so his year doesn't count. Kind of like how the NCAA erases games that happened after you get caught cheating.

In my reality, Fulmer is the only coach in 30 years to have won 6 games in his first FULL year, and technically that's an asterisk because his first year was a partial year where he one only four games.
 

VFL-82-JP

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In my [alternate] reality, Fulmer is the only coach in 30 years to have won 6 games in his first FULL year, and technically that's an asterisk because his first year was a partial year where he one only four games.
His first year was a partial year where he head coached only four games. And won all of them. That's what you meant to say, I'm sure. :)
 
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HiltonHeadVol

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I understand the need to have opinions about upcoming seasons, but please......I hope most do not get caught taking this discussion seriously. Among the many issues facing UT this year: new Head Coach, numerous transfers out (and a few in), new DC, entirely new staff that has not worked together previously for the most part, and switching to a 3-4 defense (remember how that went in Sal Sun's first year?). Add into that lack of any signif. experience at QB (and if you're counting Hook, he is coming back from injury), thin at LB, questionable at CB and OL, and add to that the unknown of upcoming opponents and the toughness of any SEC schedule, IT IS ABSURD to put any serious discussion into next years record. And, there are always a couple of teams who come out and perform much beyond their preseason estimation (sadly, never us by the way) which will make the schedule more difficult than thought initially.
My problem with this kind of thing is that people get caught actually setting up foolish overreaching expectations on an upcoming season - and then, a few games in, began the drumbeat of anger or despair that makes coming to this board intolerable. We will be very very fortunate if Coach Huep can turn this ship around and install some semblance of a winning culture - honestly, regardless of the record - then he will have had success in his first year. Damn, I hope they can will at a .500 level, but I refuse to get my hopes up based on what we are facing. Keep your expectations in check folks.
I do think there is a reasonable chance Coach JH can perform well here and establish a new culture, but it will take time, people!
 

hUTch2002

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It isn't particularly "enthusiasm" or optimism. I am trying to look at the talent (Heupel's opportunity) on this roster and correlate it to the schedule and a somewhat realistic impression of the opponents.

You could be right... but it would likely mean we are on course for yet another 3 year HC.

What specifically has Pitt done that makes you write that off as a loss? The messed up '20 season was their best scoring O performance in the last 4 years. They were 10th in the ACC. The ACC isn't really known for defense.... They haven't been better than 10th in total O during the same period. They seem to play a style of O that protects their D. Their D results look better but they rank high in TOP and plays/game.

Last year they didn't have a win over anyone who finished with a winning record. They are a Vandy level roster. They are a "classic" model for teams of their type. They get primarily low rated recruits and then develop them into basically a middling team.... in the good years.

And... what makes you say that about the talent on this roster? Experience? Yes. There isn't a ton at some positions... but that's mostly at positions with a lot of talent like WR, QB, and RB. UT may have a lack of talent on the DL and Secondary... but there's a good bit of experience. That's not likely a roster to challenge Bama with... but it isn't Vandy, Arkansas, or even UK level either.
You’re assuming normal development of this team but, as we’ve seen, that has been sorely lacking. Yes, the expectation is that Heupel changes that but can he de-program the bad habits, completely overhaul the culture, and turn a roster lacking of experience into a winning season? Maybe he can but simply comparing our recruiting rankings to teams on our schedule is a mistake when we haven’t been developing that talent at all.
 

VolunteerHillbilly

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Lack of development is something of a red herring. It's not like our guys have not been working out and practicing. They need someone to call plays and alignments that actually match the team's strengths and recognize and exploit opponents' weaknesses.
 

sjt18

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You’re assuming normal development of this team but, as we’ve seen, that has been sorely lacking. Yes, the expectation is that Heupel changes that but can he de-program the bad habits, completely overhaul the culture, and turn a roster lacking of experience into a winning season? Maybe he can but simply comparing our recruiting rankings to teams on our schedule is a mistake when we haven’t been developing that talent at all.
Well, that's kind of the point. The team has talent. The right coach can convert talent into a cohesive team that produces wins. What we've seen is direct evidence that we have not had the right coach. If CJH does not produce the result this team's talent says are possible versus this schedule... then he's not the guy. Like we saw with Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt... he isn't going to become a "good coach" just by getting more time or more of "his" recruits. If a coach has a 4 win roster and coaches them to 3 wins... they're not a good coach. If they coach them to 6 wins then you can be pretty sure they are.

The last three coaches in their first year have lost at least one more game than they should have with the talent they inherited. Those were NOT exceptions to who they were as coaches... that WAS who they were as coaches.
 

hUTch2002

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Well, that's kind of the point. The team has talent. The right coach can convert talent into a cohesive team that produces wins. What we've seen is direct evidence that we have not had the right coach. If CJH does not produce the result this team's talent says are possible versus this schedule... then he's not the guy. Like we saw with Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt... he isn't going to become a "good coach" just by getting more time or more of "his" recruits. If a coach has a 4 win roster and coaches them to 3 wins... they're not a good coach. If they coach them to 6 wins then you can be pretty sure they are.

The last three coaches in their first year have lost at least one more game than they should have with the talent they inherited. Those were NOT exceptions to who they were as coaches... that WAS who they were as coaches.
I agree to a point. I think year 1 is a little too soon to know for sure. Saban lost to La Monroe his first year. Based on what you’re saying that meant he wasn’t the right guy. I do agree you can tell some things in year 1 but being a game off of predictions can happen to any coach in any year so I think that’s a little tight of an expectation for a year 1 coach coming into this mess. Now, if we come out and win 4 this year with our talent level and that schedule that’s probably a bad sign. The opposite can be true too. If we come out and win 10 that doesn’t mean Heupel is a good coach. That’s a good sign but 1 year isn’t the end all be all for any coach, let alone a first year coach.
 

sjt18

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I agree to a point. I think year 1 is a little too soon to know for sure. Saban lost to La Monroe his first year. Based on what you’re saying that meant he wasn’t the right guy.
Saban had won a NC at LSU previously and had coached in the NFL. He cleaned house and apparently had a mini-rebellion from some of the holdovers.

I like Heupel but he doesn't have those bona fides.

He is dealing with a mess. I haven't particularly bought the "he was left such a mess...." argument for the past 3 coaches. This was primarily because there was talent. But also program discipline was pretty good from Kiffin to Pruitt. There weren't a lot of off the field issues. Some but not like what we're seeing in the wake of Pruitt and Fulmer.

Having given it a little more thought... we shouldn't be surprised. Part of the reason Fulmer was fired the first time was constant off the field discipline issues. He returned and hand picked Pruitt... and those issues have returned.

White and Heupel will have to clean those things up too.

I do agree you can tell some things in year 1 but being a game off of predictions can happen to any coach in any year so I think that’s a little tight of an expectation for a year 1 coach coming into this mess. Now, if we come out and win 4 this year with our talent level and that schedule that’s probably a bad sign. The opposite can be true too. If we come out and win 10 that doesn’t mean Heupel is a good coach. That’s a good sign but 1 year isn’t the end all be all for any coach, let alone a first year coach.
I am saying 6-8 wins. I think 5 or less would be a pretty significant underachievement primarily because of the schedule. There are 4 virtually built in wins counting Vandy. Then he has to win two of Mizzou, USCe, UK, Pitt, and Ole Miss. We don't know everything about those teams/programs but we know enough to say that 2 of 5 should not be a "stretch". UT will have a style of play advantage IMO against UK, USCe, and Pitt. None of those teams can afford a "track meet" type of game.
 

TeacherVol007

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I would have to bet the under on this one, I think we win 6 maybe 7 but 8 wins is too much for this team in year 1 of Heupel.


Edit: although it would be just like UT to win 8 games and then be non-bowl eligible because of NCAA sanctions.
I've been saying all along that we'll miraculously go undefeated but won't be able to do anything due to the sanctions (obviously I don't think this will happen, but like you said, it'd be such a UT thing to do this and then go 4-8 in 2022).
 

VolunteerHillbilly

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I understand the need to have opinions about upcoming seasons, but please......I hope most do not get caught taking this discussion seriously. Among the many issues facing UT this year: new Head Coach, numerous transfers out (and a few in), new DC, entirely new staff that has not worked together previously for the most part, and switching to a 3-4 defense (remember how that went in Sal Sun's first year?). Add into that lack of any signif. experience at QB (and if you're counting Hook, he is coming back from injury), thin at LB, questionable at CB and OL, and add to that the unknown of upcoming opponents and the toughness of any SEC schedule, IT IS ABSURD to put any serious discussion into next years record. And, there are always a couple of teams who come out and perform much beyond their preseason estimation (sadly, never us by the way) which will make the schedule more difficult than thought initially.
My problem with this kind of thing is that people get caught actually setting up foolish overreaching expectations on an upcoming season - and then, a few games in, began the drumbeat of anger or despair that makes coming to this board intolerable. We will be very very fortunate if Coach Huep can turn this ship around and install some semblance of a winning culture - honestly, regardless of the record - then he will have had success in his first year. Damn, I hope they can will at a .500 level, but I refuse to get my hopes up based on what we are facing. Keep your expectations in check folks.
I do think there is a reasonable chance Coach JH can perform well here and establish a new culture, but it will take time, people!
Vandy and SC also have new head coaches, both of whom are first year/first-time head coaches, and both of whom have far weaker rosters than the Vols. Bowling Green, Tech and South Alabama are walkovers that we can only lose if the coaches get cute with the game plan. If they can't scratch another one out from KY, Pitt, OM and Mizzou, I don't see how anyone, fan or recruit, has any faith in this guy going forward.
 

hUTch2002

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Saban had won a NC at LSU previously and had coached in the NFL. He cleaned house and apparently had a mini-rebellion from some of the holdovers.

I like Heupel but he doesn't have those bona fides.

He is dealing with a mess. I haven't particularly bought the "he was left such a mess...." argument for the past 3 coaches. This was primarily because there was talent. But also program discipline was pretty good from Kiffin to Pruitt. There weren't a lot of off the field issues. Some but not like what we're seeing in the wake of Pruitt and Fulmer.

Having given it a little more thought... we shouldn't be surprised. Part of the reason Fulmer was fired the first time was constant off the field discipline issues. He returned and hand picked Pruitt... and those issues have returned.

White and Heupel will have to clean those things up too.


I am saying 6-8 wins. I think 5 or less would be a pretty significant underachievement primarily because of the schedule. There are 4 virtually built in wins counting Vandy. Then he has to win two of Mizzou, USCe, UK, Pitt, and Ole Miss. We don't know everything about those teams/programs but we know enough to say that 2 of 5 should not be a "stretch". UT will have a style of play advantage IMO against UK, USCe, and Pitt. None of those teams can afford a "track meet" type of game.
I’m with you. Before I get into your post, thanks for actually talking through it. I’m so used to people immediately jumping to insults when someone expresses any potential disagreement. Anyway, I agree with you. I think 6-7 regular reason myself but 8 could happen if things come together well quickly. I also agree I’d be disappointed with 5 against that schedule and, like I believe you mentioned elsewhere, other teams are taking a step back too. The East is ripe for UGA this year. They are far and away the best team. Florida is probably a pretty easy second but on paper we should probably be right there with them. We just haven’t had decent coaching in a while so it’s hard to know what to expect from these kids. If Heupel is an average coach then 6 wins is easily achievable, although things can certainly go awry in year 1.

Fair point on Saban. It’s crazy how things happen though. I remember that people thought Bama was nuts paying him $4M a year back when they hired him. Yes he had a NC at LSU but there was zero reason to think they would turn into what they did. Right person at the right time in the right situation.

Overall, I’m just glad we have some hope. Maybe Heupel is guy, maybe not. At least we can hope he is and we should be able to enjoy scoring some points at the very least. Pruitt’s teams bounced between boring and excruciating to watch.
 

sjt18

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@hUTch2002 No problem. I actually don't mind jousting. Like you said, the insults and stuff take it in the wrong direction.

Agree with your post. RE: UF, UGA, and Bama... I'd really just like for UT to play like they're not an FCS team against those opponents. I'm surprised all three haven't made UT their homecoming game. If he can just get his guys to fight back then I'll be OK with those games.

On paper UT may not be that far behind UF but I suspect the reality is different. However... I don't think its a bad thing that UF gets Bama right before they play UT.

And for UGA's part... they tend to choke against UF or Auburn even when they have the superior team. Smart hasn't solved that one yet. They are no worse than the 2nd most talented team in the SEC and top 5 in the country.
 

hUTch2002

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@hUTch2002 No problem. I actually don't mind jousting. Like you said, the insults and stuff take it in the wrong direction.

Agree with your post. RE: UF, UGA, and Bama... I'd really just like for UT to play like they're not an FCS team against those opponents. I'm surprised all three haven't made UT their homecoming game. If he can just get his guys to fight back then I'll be OK with those games.

On paper UT may not be that far behind UF but I suspect the reality is different. However... I don't think its a bad thing that UF gets Bama right before they play UT.

And for UGA's part... they tend to choke against UF or Auburn even when they have the superior team. Smart hasn't solved that one yet. They are no worse than the 2nd most talented team in the SEC and top 5 in the country.
Unfortunately I agree on UF. I’m not in the camp that every year thinks this is our year against those jerks. In fact, it’s the opposite. I assume we will lose, even if we appear to be the better team. You’re certainly right about UGA too. Smart is a more expensive and less nice Mark Richt. What’s going to get him in trouble if he doesn’t start producing at a higher level is that he recruits better than Richt. So chalk those 2 games and Bama up as losses, let’s at least show and not lay down those games like you said, and literally every other game on the schedule is winnable. Now, realistically, we won’t win all the others but we theoretically could. That Pitt game is huge. Win that and I feel confident in at least 6 wins. Drop that game and 6 might be tough. Pitt, MO, SC, KY, and Ole Miss are the swing games. We should be 4-3 outside those. 2-3 really should be the floor there and 3-2 is pretty reasonable. Anything above that would be really impressive but I just want to see us play smart, play hard, and play with discipline. If we do those things the rest will fall into place.
 
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