O/U win total 7.5

#76

sjt18

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#76
Even last year, they improved after our game, we regressed. If we had played them at the end of the year they would have trashed us. Add to that a roster meltdown and new staff, and I see MO as a loss.
They improved over the course of the year. I don't think it is a loss. It should be a win. But they are good enough to compete and possibly win.
 
#77

sjt18

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#77
Tennessee Tech, Bowling Green, and South Bama = 3-0

Bama, UGA, Florida..............................................................= 0-3

SC, Vandy, Kentucky ........................................................= 2-1

Pitt, Missouri, Ole Piss ...................................................... = 1-2

Total.............................................................................................. = 6-6
That would constitute a coaching failure... another coach that underperformed the talent on his roster.

Look at the schedule. Not just the teams but the way it lays out. It really couldn't be any better.
 
#78

VolInNW

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#78
That would constitute a coaching failure... another coach that underperformed the talent on his roster.

Look at the schedule. Not just the teams but the way it lays out. It really couldn't be any better.
I enjoy and envy your enthusiasm. No snark intended. I just don’t see a lot of room for confidence outside of the three weak OOC teams. Pitt is a likely loss. We are a bottom tier SEC roster at this point.

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
 
#79

sjt18

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#79
I enjoy and envy your enthusiasm. No snark intended. I just don’t see a lot of room for confidence outside of the three weak OOC teams. Pitt is a likely loss. We are a bottom tier SEC roster at this point.

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
It isn't particularly "enthusiasm" or optimism. I am trying to look at the talent (Heupel's opportunity) on this roster and correlate it to the schedule and a somewhat realistic impression of the opponents.

You could be right... but it would likely mean we are on course for yet another 3 year HC.

What specifically has Pitt done that makes you write that off as a loss? The messed up '20 season was their best scoring O performance in the last 4 years. They were 10th in the ACC. The ACC isn't really known for defense.... They haven't been better than 10th in total O during the same period. They seem to play a style of O that protects their D. Their D results look better but they rank high in TOP and plays/game.

Last year they didn't have a win over anyone who finished with a winning record. They are a Vandy level roster. They are a "classic" model for teams of their type. They get primarily low rated recruits and then develop them into basically a middling team.... in the good years.

And... what makes you say that about the talent on this roster? Experience? Yes. There isn't a ton at some positions... but that's mostly at positions with a lot of talent like WR, QB, and RB. UT may have a lack of talent on the DL and Secondary... but there's a good bit of experience. That's not likely a roster to challenge Bama with... but it isn't Vandy, Arkansas, or even UK level either.
 
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#80

HARTUPM

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#80
This is a big problem with fans and pundits on UT football. No one knows jack diddly sh!t how many games they'll win this fall! Setting expectations on wins in losses right now is merely setting yourself up to be disappointed.

UT fans sound like: "Yeah Bo, ole Huepel he's a QB whisperer man, and we got the best DC in the counrty (that no one has ever heard of). Oh yeah we're a dark horse, I bet they win like 7 or 8 games! We gonna challenge georgia and florida for the east! Watch out for the VOLS!"
 
#83

volmanNC

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#83
That would constitute a coaching failure... another coach that underperformed the talent on his roster.

Look at the schedule. Not just the teams but the way it lays out. It really couldn't be any better.
Perhaps you are correct! I am thinking anything BELOW this is a real failure. I think it is very possible for 9-3 if think go really well.
 
#84

VFL-82-JP

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#84
His run game with the 2 walk on twins playing on a patchwork offensive line and a complete turnaround of Crompton was pretty impressive too. I realize Chaney and Cregg get some credit there as well but Kiffins offense was gonna only get better had he stayed. Sure wished we'd have at least tried to bring him back this last go around.
John Madden says about football: you are what you win. With that in mind, let's look at two coaches:

Coach A --
...Power 5 record: 40-26 (.606), best seasons 10-2 and 8-5, no titles
...Group 5 record: 26-13 (.667), best seasons 11-3 and 10-3, two conference titles

Coach B --
...Power 5 record: 34-27 (.557), best seasons 9-4 and 9-4, no titles
...Group 5 record: 50-27 (.649), best seasons 11-2 and 10-3, four conference titles

I think you'd agree, these two fellas are pretty closely matched. The first one has slightly higher win percentages, while the second one has more conference titles. Pretty close.

No one here respects Butch Jones (Coach B) as a Power 5 coach, he didn't make the grade ... but some here continue to give Lane Kiffin (Coach A) the benefit of the doubt in spite of his record. Some even believe he is an elite coach.

Totally don't get it. He and Butch are both good Group of 5 coaches, who keep bubbling up to the Power 5 level only to be shown as second-rate there.

I know, I know, "wait till you see, give him time he's gonna prove he's an elite coach." We keep saying that. Folks have been saying that about him since Oakland. Five stops later....
 
#85

sjt18

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#85
Perhaps you are correct! I am thinking anything BELOW this is a real failure. I think it is very possible for 9-3 if think go really well.
I will stick with six to 8 wins for now mostly because I don't have an absolute feel for how good some of the opponents are going to be. Ole Miss in particular.
 
#86

VFL-82-JP

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#86
I will stick with six to 8 wins for now mostly because I don't have an absolute feel for how good some of the opponents are going to be. Ole Miss in particular.
SJT, how do you even have a feel for how WE are going to be?

We're in a situation right now where we simply can't extrapolate off previous years. On top of which, we have no idea who will QB, we haven't yet gained the faintest clue about how installation of the offense, defense and special teams schemes are going, and we don't even know how the team chemistry is unfolding.

We're literally a black box right now...depending on how things shake out the next few months, could see predictions as low as 4-8 or as high as 8-4. No way we can narrow it down any better than that, far as I can see. So how are you doing it?
 
#87

sjt18

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#87
SJT, how do you even have a feel for how WE are going to be?
Talent.... or at least my perception of it at this point. I think UT has 4 QB's and at least 3 represent an immediate upgrade over what we've seen coupled with Heupel's system. I like the OL. Some don't. I do... and again especially when playing in a system that makes their jobs easier like this one. The WR's are fast and have good ball skills. They're playing in an O... that rewards guys for being fast and finding holes then making a catch.

I think we know the "floor" for the DL. Same guys. We don't know the ceiling since a few younger guys may be ready to assert themselves.

LB is a mess.... but UT has safeties. They may have to get creative.

We know some things. We can make educated guesses at others. Others... I am relying on potential becoming reality.
 
#88

Devo182

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#88
Under. Way under. Lets look at the schedule:

Tennessee Tech, Bowling Green, and South Alabubba - should be wins (3)

Alabubba, uga, Florida, Pitt, Missouri, and Ole Miss are losses (6)

That gives us a need to sweep South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky - then steal one from the loss list, THEN steal another to make 8.

Not. Gonna. Happen.
You really think Pitt, Mizzou, and Ole Miss are like 90/10 or better favorites? "Sure" losses? Lol

Now THAT I would bet.
 
#94

ABINGDON VOL FAN

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#94
I enjoy and envy your enthusiasm. No snark intended. I just don’t see a lot of room for confidence outside of the three weak OOC teams. Pitt is a likely loss. We are a bottom tier SEC roster at this point.

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
At this time with the roster depletion, my guess is we are a questionable P5 program and wouldn’t even be ranked in the top 20 of the group of five conferences. I hope Heupel proves me wrong.
 
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#98

VFL-82-JP

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#98
A first-year Tennessee coach hasn't won more than 6 games in 30 years.
I can think of 2 who did
PJ, you're right. MWA, you're wrong.

30 years ago...that's since 1991. Okay.

1993 - Phillip Fulmer - 10-2
2009 - Lane Kiffin - 7-6

You'd have been better off if you'd said "in 10 years" (or 11). But that's just Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt, and the world woulda said "duh" in response. Heh.
 
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