Dobbs 4 Heisman
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No, we'll know after the draft if Alvin is a sure fire first rounder. He could run great at the combine but if there isn't a team at the back end of the 1st round that doesn't value AK as much as another RB or if RB isn't a need at that point for a handful of those teams, then he will not be a "surefire first rounder".
He won't last until the back end of the first half. As long as he runs a 4.4 40 at the combine he'll go in the mid-1st round. I'm currently projecting him to the Ravens at #16 overall.