I Created a CFB Ranking System

[bamawriter]

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Georgia (13-0) - 182.3131 (1/1/1)
2. Michigan (13-0) - 178.0839 (2/2/2)
3. Ohio St (11-1) - 171.3886 (4/4/4)
4. Tennessee (10-2) - 165.0488 (6/6/6)
5. Alabama (10-2) - 160.9008 (5/5/5)
6. TCU (12-1) - 158.0444 (3/3/3)
7. Penn St (10-2) - 157.2096 (9/7/11)
8. Clemson (11-2) - 151.7654 (10/11/7)
9. USC (11-2) - 151.4412 (8/8/10)
10. Kansas St (10-3) - 151.3513 (11/9/9)
11. Tulane (11-2) - 148.0816 (14/17/16)
12. Utah (10-3) - 146.7520 (7/10/8)
13. Florida St (9-3) - 146.2071 (13/13/13)
14. Texas (8-4) - 145.9541 (21/21/20)
15. Troy (11-2) - 144.6149 (23/24/24)
16. UTSA (11-2) - 143.4744 (22/22/25)
17. Oregon (9-3) - 142.9442 (15/14/15)
18. LSU (9-4) - 139.5261 (16/15/17)
19. Washington (10-2) - 139.0389 (12/12/12)
20. Oregon St (9-3) - 138.6353 (17/16/14)
21. South Alabama (10-2) - 135.469 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Notre Dame (8-4) - 135.2315 (19/20/21)
23. UCLA (9-3) - 134.8527 (18/18/18)
24. Mississippi St (8-4) - 132.3138 (24/23/22)
25. James Madison (8-3) - 131.3652 (UR/UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Michigan vs. #3 Ohio St
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Tennessee

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #11 Tulane vs. #9 USC
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #18 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #10 Kansas St
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #12 Utah

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

28. Ole Miss (8-4) - 128.2328
38. South Carolina (8-4) - 123.9146 (20/19/19)
40. Kentucky (7-5) - 120.1291
51. Arkansas (6-6) - 114.9091
52. Florida (6-6) - 113.4356
63. Missouri (6-6) - 108.7148
68. Auburn (5-7) - 106.5879
85. Texas A&M (5-7) - 94.6203
91. Vanderbilt (5-7) - 91.6813

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

122. Temple (3-9) - 59.7287
123. FIU (4-8) - 59.5584
124. Nevada (2-10) - 57.7044
125. Hawaii (3-10) - 56.9175
126. Akron (2-10) - 55.7727
127. Charlotte (3-9) - 55.2084
128. New Mexico (2-10) - 54.0539
129. Colorado (1-11) - 52.8437
130. South Florida (1-11) - 51.6550
131. UMass (1-11) - 38.6407

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

 

[95 Vol Alum]

While I updated all the numbers last week, by the time the CFP poll came out I got slammed with work and never got around to posting it. Here's last week's Top 25. I'll post this week's shortly.

1. Georgia (12-0) - 181.1122
2. Michigan (12-0) - 177.4697
3. Ohio St (11-1) - 171.1306
4. Tennessee (10-2) - 165.7873
5. TCU (12-0) - 163.8497
6. Alabama (10-2) - 161.5739
7. Penn St (10-2) - 158.4158
8. USC (11-1) - 157.5992
9. Clemson (10-2) - 147.5608
10. Kansas St (9-3) - 147.1286
11. Florida St (9-3) - 146.6703
12. Texas (8-4) - 146.4803
13. Tulane (10-2) - 144.5989
14. Oregon (9-3) - 142.8000
15. LSU (9-3) - 142.3289
16. Utah (9-3) - 141.3628
17. UTSA (10-2) - 141.2325
18. Troy (10-2) - 140.8919
19. Oregon St (9-3) - 139.6983
20. Washington (10-2) - 139.0389
21. Notre Dame (8-4) - 136.5670
22. UCLA (9-3) - 135.5044
23. South Alabama (10-2) - 135.2872
24. UCF (9-3) - 133.9934
25. Mississippi St (8-4) - 133.0264

Wait, Tennessee jumped Alabama by beating Vandy?!? Lol, couldn’t resist.

 

[bamawriter]

Wait, Tennessee jumped Alabama by beating Vandy?!? Lol, couldn’t resist.

Interestingly, UT beating Vandy didn't affect UT's score vs Bama's because they both played Vandy. The difference that week was that, other than Texas, every one of Bama's opponents lost or beat another team that Bama played. Conversely, outside of Florida, all of UT's opponents won or lost to a team that UT played.

 

[TrueOrange]

The Rest of the SEC:

28. Ole Miss (8-4) - 128.2328
38. South Carolina (8-4) - 123.9146 (20/19/19)
40. Kentucky (7-5) - 120.1291
51. Arkansas (6-6) - 114.9091
52. Florida (6-6) - 113.4356
63. Missouri (6-6) - 108.7148
68. Auburn (5-7) - 106.5879
85. Texas A&M (5-7) - 94.6203
91. Vanderbilt (5-7) - 91.6813

Just out of curiosity, could you also do the other 4 major conferences? Presuming it’s not a huge inconvenience, that is.

 

[bamawriter]

Just out of curiosity, could you also do the other 4 major conferences? Presuming it’s not a huge inconvenience, that is.

Sure thing:

The Rest of the Big 10:

32. Illinois (8-4) - 125.9653
43. Minnesota (8-4) - 119.7264
44. Purdue (8-5) - 118.8097
45. Maryland (7-5) - 118.7219
53. Iowa (7-5) - 113.0394
64. Wisconsin (6-6) - 108.4820
74. Michigan St (5-7) - 104.5369
95. Indiana (4-8) - 88.8659
106. Nebraska (4-8) - 78.2355
113. Rutgers (4-8) - 73.6305
121. Northwestern (1-11) - 60.5370

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the ACC:

31. Louisville (7-5) - 126.2949
33. NC State (8-4) - 125.2345
34. North Carolina (9-4) - 124.1118
35. Wake Forest (7-5) - 124.0605
39. Pitt (8-4) - 122.7907
47. Syracuse (7-5) - 118.3669
58. Duke (8-4) - 110.4254
82. Georgia Tech (5-7) - 95.3895
94. Miami (5-7) - 89.0465
110. Virginia (3-7) - 75.0751
115. Boston College (3-9) - 69.5356
116. Virginia Tech (3-8) - 67.9904

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the Big XII:

41. Texas Tech (7-5) - 120.1167
55. Oklahoma St (7-5) - 112.7312
57. Oklahoma (6-6) - 110.6734
59. Baylor (6-6) - 110.3465
62. Kansas (6-6) - 108.8498
86. Iowa St (4-8) - 94.5556
89. West Virginia (5-7) - 93.5332

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the Pac 12:

48. Washington St (7-5) - 116.8838
84. Arizona (5-7) - 94.8852
100. Cal (4-8) - 83.8087
105. Stanford (3-9) - 79.7900
109. Arizona St (3-9) - 75.6016
129. Colorado (1-11) - 52.8437

 

[LouderVol]

The Rest of the Big XII:

41. Texas Tech (7-5) - 120.1167
55. Oklahoma St (7-5) - 112.7312
57. Oklahoma (6-6) - 110.6734
59. Baylor (6-6) - 110.3465
62. Kansas (6-6) - 108.8498
86. Iowa St (4-8) - 94.5556
89. West Virginia (5-7) - 93.5332

They definitely seemed the most competitive.

And the SEC and Big 12 were the only two without at least 1 bottom 100 team

 

[bamawriter]

They definitely seemed the most competitive.

And the SEC and Big 12 were the only two without at least 1 bottom 100 team

You could make a good argument that they were the most competitive.

However, because they play a full round robin schedule, it causes their scores to become flattened. When they expand and don't play every team on an annual basis, they will find themselves spreading out across the rankings a bit more.

 

[Buzzbait]

Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

Let us know how that works for you

 

[VolPack22]

The Bottom 10:

122. Temple (3-9) - 59.7287
123. FIU (4-8) - 59.5584
124. Nevada (2-10) - 57.7044
125. Hawaii (3-10) - 56.9175
126. Akron (2-10) - 55.7727
127. Charlotte (3-9) - 55.2084
128. New Mexico (2-10) - 54.0539
129. Colorado (1-11) - 52.8437
130. South Florida (1-11) - 51.6550
131. UMass (1-11) - 38.6407

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

Shouldn’t the current champions of life be Alabama with all that lobbying?

 

[bamawriter]

Shouldn’t the current champions of life be Alabama with all that lobbying?

First off, it's a lineal title. It isn't awarded arbitrarily.

Second, there is a significant difference between saying "We lost two games, but we're still one of the best teams," and saying "We lost 4 games, but my mom says that I'm the most handsome boy in school."

 

[VolPack22]

First off, it's a lineal title. It isn't awarded arbitrarily.

Second, there is a significant difference between saying "We lost two games, but we're still one of the best teams," and saying "We lost 4 games, but my mom says that I'm the most handsome boy in school."

Is there a significant difference between boasting about two top 10 wins vs finishing 3-0 vs Ole Miss, Austin Peay, and Auburn?

 

[MemphisVol77]

@bamawriter

When do your rankings come out?

 

[bamawriter]

@bamawriter

When do your rankings come out?

After Week 4.

 

[bamawriter]

Week 4 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (4-0) - 188.3350 (14/14)
2. Miami (4-0) - 183.8975 (18/18)
3. Texas (4-0) - 181.8425 (3/5)
4. Washington (4-0) - 180.7250 (7/8)
5. Ohio St (4-0) - 179.0575 (4/3)
6. Texas A&M (3-1) - 178.6867 (UR/UR)
7. Penn St (4-0) - 176.7400 (6/7)
8. Michigan (4-0) - 174.6175 (2/2)
9. Oregon (4-0) - 171.7425 (9/9)
10. Washington St (4-0) - 169.2367 (16/17)
11. Florida St (4-0) - 167.300 (5/4)
12. Utah (4-0) - 162.5875 (10/10)
13. Alabama (3-1) - 161.6975 (12/11)
14. Missouri (4-0) - 159.8475 (23/22)
15. North Carolina (4-0) - 159.7525 (15/15)
16. Notre Dame (4-1) - 159.3120 (11/13)
17. Kansas St (4-1) - 153.3850 (24/24)
18. Louisville (4-0) - 152.6375 (UR/UR)
19. Colorado (3-1) - 150.9992 (UR/UR)
20. Duke (4-0) - 149.4825 (17/16)
21. Liberty (4-0) - 148.0825 (UR/UR)
22. Ole Miss (3-1) - 147.9350 (20/20)
23. Syracuse (4-0) - 146.8975 (UR/UR)
24. Georgia (4-0) - 145.0100 (1/1)
25. LSU (3-1) - 144.1375 (13/12)

This might be the greatest deviation between my ranking and the polls since I started doing this.

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

29. Florida (3-1) - 141.2375 (22/23)
33. Kentucky (4-0) - 137.4450
41. Auburn (3-1) - 130.9000
53. South Carolina (2-2) - 124.8775
61. Tennessee (3-1) - 117.9275 (21/19)
74. Mississippi St (2-2) - 109.2525
80. Arkansas (2-2) - 104.2650
82. Vanderbilt (2-3) - 101.3060

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

124. UTEP (1-4) - 72.0280
125. UMass (1-4) - 71.9960
126. Southern Miss (1-3) - 71.3525
127. North Texas (1-2) - 69.2000
128. FAU (1-3) - 68.7175
129. MTSU (1-3) - 67.9992
130. Nevada (0-4) - 66.2275
131. Sam Houston (0-3) - 66.1500
132. Buffalo (0-4) - 65.4750
133. Northern Illinois (1-3) - 51.9900

Current Champions of Life: Ohio State

 

[VolPack22]

Week 4 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (4-0) - 188.3350 (14/14)
2. Miami (4-0) - 183.8975 (18/18)
3. Texas (4-0) - 181.8425 (3/5)
4. Washington (4-0) - 180.7250 (7/8)
5. Ohio St (4-0) - 179.0575 (4/3)
6. Texas A&M (3-1) - 178.6867 (UR/UR)
7. Penn St (4-0) - 176.7400 (6/7)
8. Michigan (4-0) - 174.6175 (2/2)
9. Oregon (4-0) - 171.7425 (9/9)
10. Washington St (4-0) - 169.2367 (16/17)
11. Florida St (4-0) - 167.300 (5/4)
12. Utah (4-0) - 162.5875 (10/10)
13. Alabama (3-1) - 161.6975 (12/11)
14. Missouri (4-0) - 159.8475 (23/22)
15. North Carolina (4-0) - 159.7525 (15/15)
16. Notre Dame (4-1) - 159.3120 (11/13)
17. Kansas St (4-1) - 153.3850 (24/24)
18. Louisville (4-0) - 152.6375 (UR/UR)
19. Colorado (3-1) - 150.9992 (UR/UR)
20. Duke (4-0) - 149.4825 (17/16)
21. Liberty (4-0) - 148.0825 (UR/UR)
22. Ole Miss (3-1) - 147.9350 (20/20)
23. Syracuse (4-0) - 146.8975 (UR/UR)
24. Georgia (4-0) - 145.0100 (1/1)
25. LSU (3-1) - 144.1375 (13/12)

This might be the greatest deviation between my ranking and the polls since I started doing this.

Georgia fans are going to be elated

 

[bamawriter]

Georgia fans are going to be elated

They have the 123rd ranked SOS. That's the sole reason for their ranking. USC is unranked because their SOS is second to last. Tennessee's is also a putrid 116th.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

They have the 123rd ranked SOS. That's the sole reason for their ranking. USC is unranked because their SOS is second to last. Tennessee's is also a putrid 116th.

Appreciate the work but ..... well, you're going to get dragged enough without me jumping on you too. I appreciate the work, really, and I'm sure it's a "work in progress" so keep tinkering with the algorithm.