#### bamawriter

##### Well-Known Member

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- Sep 24, 2010

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Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)

+

Opponents' Winning % x 100

+

Average Adjusted Point Differential

+

Opponents' Average Point Differential

+

Average Yardage Differential / 100

=

SCORE

As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) =

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984

2. Clemson - 175.6221

3. Oklahoma - 174.9711

4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)

+

Opponents' Winning % x 100

+

Average Adjusted Point Differential

+

Opponents' Average Point Differential

+

Average Yardage Differential / 100

=

SCORE

As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) =

**134.0328**Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984

2. Clemson - 175.6221

3. Oklahoma - 174.9711

4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

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