I Created a CFB Ranking System

hUTch2002

Wait til next year!
Joined
Jul 30, 2018
Messages
13,337
Likes
14,430
WEEK 10 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Ohio St (9-0) - 182.3085 (2/2/2)
2. Georgia (9-0) - 181.9311 (1/1/1)
3. Tennessee (8-1) - 173.2954 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (9-0) - 173.1594 (3/3/3)
5. TCU (9-0) - 161.1919 (4/4/4)
6. Alabama (7-2) - 160.6598 (10/11/9)
7. USC (8-1) - 155.8823 (8/7/8)
8. UCLA (8-1) - 155.5205 (9/10/12)
9. Clemson (8-1) - 155.3879 (12/12/10)
10. Penn St (7-2) - 152.1642 (14/15/14)
11. Oregon (8-1) - 150.8089 (6/6/6)
12. LSU (7-2) - 150.3072 (7/8/7)
13. Utah (7-2) - 148.0706 (13/13/13)
14. Ole Miss (8-1) - 145.9945 (11/9/11)
15. UCF (7-2) - 144.1767 (22/21/22)
16. North Carolina (8-1) - 143.6144 (15/14/15)
17. Notre Dame (6-3) - 142.9965 (20/25/20)
18. Troy (7-2) - 141.7769 (UR/UR/UR)
19. NC State (7-2) - 141.4515 (17/16/16)
20. Texas (6-3) - 141.4177 (18/18/18)
21. Kansas St (6-3) - 141.1126 (23/22/19)
22. Florida St (6-3) - 140.8117 (25/UR/23)
23. Tulane (8-1) - 140.4822 (16/17/17)
24. Coastal Carolina (8-1) - 137.6304 (UR/UR/UR)
25. Illinois (7-2) - 136.4172 (21/20/21)
How come UGA didn’t jump Ohio State after beating us?
 

zaqhhh

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 13, 2013
Messages
4,158
Likes
4,190
WEEK 10 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Ohio St (9-0) - 182.3085 (2/2/2)
2. Georgia (9-0) - 181.9311 (1/1/1)
3. Tennessee (8-1) - 173.2954 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (9-0) - 173.1594 (3/3/3)
5. TCU (9-0) - 161.1919 (4/4/4)
6. Alabama (7-2) - 160.6598 (10/11/9)
7. USC (8-1) - 155.8823 (8/7/8)
8. UCLA (8-1) - 155.5205 (9/10/12)
9. Clemson (8-1) - 155.3879 (12/12/10)
10. Penn St (7-2) - 152.1642 (14/15/14)
11. Oregon (8-1) - 150.8089 (6/6/6)
12. LSU (7-2) - 150.3072 (7/8/7)
13. Utah (7-2) - 148.0706 (13/13/13)
14. Ole Miss (8-1) - 145.9945 (11/9/11)
15. UCF (7-2) - 144.1767 (22/21/22)
16. North Carolina (8-1) - 143.6144 (15/14/15)
17. Notre Dame (6-3) - 142.9965 (20/25/20)
18. Troy (7-2) - 141.7769 (UR/UR/UR)
19. NC State (7-2) - 141.4515 (17/16/16)
20. Texas (6-3) - 141.4177 (18/18/18)
21. Kansas St (6-3) - 141.1126 (23/22/19)
22. Florida St (6-3) - 140.8117 (25/UR/23)
23. Tulane (8-1) - 140.4822 (16/17/17)
24. Coastal Carolina (8-1) - 137.6304 (UR/UR/UR)
25. Illinois (7-2) - 136.4172 (21/20/21)
In no ranking system should Penn State be over LSU and Oregon
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
WEEK 11 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Georgia (10-0) - 183.9380 (1/1/1)
2. Ohio St (10-0) - 181.5940 (2/2/2)
3. Tennessee (9-1) - 174.3220 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (10-0) - 170.9359 (3/3/3)
5. Alabama (8-2) - 164.7200 (8/8/8)
6. TCU (10-0) - 164.3700 (4/4/4)
7. Penn St (8-2) - 158.4190 (11/12/11)
8. Clemson (9-1) - 155.5970 (9/9/9)
9. USC (9-1) - 152.7750 (7/6/7)
10. LSU (8-2) - 150.7270 (6/7/6)
11. Utah (8-2) - 150.5850 (10/10/10)
12. UCF (8-2) - 149.9960 (17/18/20)
13. North Carolina (9-1) - 146.7470 (13/11/13)
14. Florida St (7-3) - 146.1950 (20/20/19)
15. Kansas St (7-3) - 144.0170 (19/17/15)
16. Oregon (8-2) - 143.0580 (12/13/12)
17. Texas (6-4) - 140.2730 (UR/UR/UR)
18. UCLA (8-2) - 140.1530 (16/16/16)
19. Ole Miss (8-2) - 139.9780 (14/14/14)
20. Notre Dame (7-3) - 139.7800 (18/19/18)
21. Troy (8-2) - 139.7375 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Washington (8-2) - 137.7920 (15/15/17)
23. South Alabama (8-2) - 136.7830 (UR/UR/UR)
24. Coastal Carolina (9-1) - 136.5478 (23/23/UR)
25. UTSA (8-2) - 136.3898 (UR/UR/UR)
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Tennessee
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #12 UCF vs. #11 Utah
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #6 TCU
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC

It's interesting that the 12 NY6 teams are exactly the Top 12.
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
The Rest of the SEC:

34. Mississippi St (6-4) - 126.8700
38. Florida (6-4) - 123.9490
55. Kentucky (6-4) - 115.6950
59. Arkansas (5-5) - 112.9100
75. South Carolina (6-4) - 104.1546
79. Auburn (4-6) - 99.0721
81. Missouri (4-6) - 98.3150
88. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 90.0729
98. Texas A&M (3-7) - 85.4710
 
Likes: McDad

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
The Bottom 10:

122. New Mexico St (4-5) - 61.1199
123. Temple (3-7) - 61.1070
124. Colorado St (2-8) - 60.6400
125. Nevada (2-8) - 58.0665
126. Colorado (1-9) - 56.6980
127. USF (1-9) - 53.4800
128. Charlotte (2-9) - 51.2255
129. Hawaii (2-9) - 48.5887
130. Akron (1-9) - 47.6860
131. UMass (1-9) - 44.7294

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Tennessee

A few notes:

Absolutely no one wants to win the MAC this year. Their highest ranked team is Toledo at #40 (and that's before they lost last night). Their second highest is Ohio at #65.

The Mountain West is usually one of the best mid-major conferences. Not this year. Boise State is their top team at #39. They have a few teams hovering around the middle of the rankings. But 4 of their 12 members are ranked 121st or worse.
 

LouderVol

Extra and Terrestrial
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
44,268
Likes
37,071
The Rest of the SEC:

34. Mississippi St (6-4) - 126.8700
38. Florida (6-4) - 123.9490
55. Kentucky (6-4) - 115.6950
59. Arkansas (5-5) - 112.9100
75. South Carolina (6-4) - 104.1546
79. Auburn (4-6) - 99.0721
81. Missouri (4-6) - 98.3150
88. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 90.0729
98. Texas A&M (3-7) - 85.4710
Lol @ A&M.

How long has it been since Vandy wasnt the bottom team?
 

igotworms

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2015
Messages
2,504
Likes
3,082
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Tennessee
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #12 UCF vs. #11 Utah
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #6 TCU
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC

It's interesting that the 12 NY6 teams are exactly the Top 12.
Thats what it should be IMO
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
WEEK 12 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Georgia (11-0) - 183.8286 (1/1/1)
2. Ohio St (11-0) - 181.1184 (2/2/2)
3. Michigan (11-0) - 170.8643 (3/3/3)
4. Alabama (9-2) - 163.9761 (8/7/7)
5. TCU (11-0) - 163.2017 (4/4/4)
6. Tennessee (9-2) - 162.2416 (9/11/10)
7. Penn St (9-2) - 160.1817 (11/10/11)
8. Clemson (10-1) - 157.5030 (7/8/8)
9. USC (10-1) - 155.4133 (5/5/6)
10. LSU (9-2) - 153.3308 (6/6/5)
11. Florida St (8-3) - 148.4152 (16/16/16)
12. Oregon (9-2) - 147.6734 (10/9/9)
13. Texas (7-4) - 145.6906 (24/24/23)
14. Kansas St (8-3) - 145.5525 (15/13/12)
15. Utah (8-3) - 144.4773 (14/14/14)
16. Notre Dame (8-3) - 141.8623 (13/15/15)
17. UTSA (9-2) - 140.3881 (UR/25/UR)
18. Tulane (9-2) - 139.4352 (19/20/19)
19. Troy (9-2) - 139.3191 (UR/UR/UR)
20. UCF (8-3) - 138.6051 (25/UR/22)
21. North Carolina (9-2) - 136.6173 (18/17/17)
22. South Alabama (9-2) - 136.2104 (UR/UR/UR)
23. Coastal Carolina (9-1) - 136.0315 (23/23/UR)
24. Oregon St (8-3) - 135.7380 (22/22/21)
25. UCLA (8-3) - 135.6270 (17/18/18)
 
Likes: kamoshika

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Michigan
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Alabama

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #17 UTSA vs. #11 Florida St
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 TCU vs. #6 Tennessee
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
The Rest of the SEC:

27. Ole Miss (8-3) - 134.9188 (20/19/20)
31. Mississippi St (7-4) - 129.7235
37. Arkansas (6-5) - 123.5165
48. South Carolina (7-4) - 116.8421
51. Kentucky (6-5) - 115.7130
53. Florida (6-5) - 115.4852)
66. Auburn (5-6) - 109.2904
74. Missouri (5-6) - 103.5809
80. Vanderbilt (5-6) - 97.0701
95. Texas A&M (4-7) - 88.6510
 

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
The Bottom 10:

122. New Mexico (2-9) - 60.3036
123. FIU (4-7) - 59.7112
124. Nevada (2-9) - 57.8003
125. New Mexico St (4-6) - 56.6428
126. Hawaii (3-9) - 55.4136
127. Charlotte (3-9) - 55.0005
128. Colorado (1-10) - 54.6186
129. USF (1-10) - 50.8137
130. Akron (1-9) - 46.4078
131. UMass (1-10) - 40.0466

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina
Sorry everyone.
 
Likes: VOL_Lyfe

hUTch2002

Wait til next year!
Joined
Jul 30, 2018
Messages
13,337
Likes
14,430
Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.
It’s more to keep up with but have you thought about adding opponent’s opponents winning percentage in? I bring it up because your latest rankings have a lot of lower tier teams in the top 25 and I assume that’s because beating a 5-5 Sunbelt team is no different than beating a 5-5 SEC team. Adding the opponent’s opponents winning percentage isn’t a perfect way to capture the relative strength of the opponent but it’s something and I think the BCS used to have such a component back in the day.
 

TNHopeful505

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2009
Messages
10,333
Likes
15,355
@bamawriter Do you think there might be a little Alabama bias in that algorithm? #4?

I know they're talented on paper but #4?
I mean....Alabama is 5 points away from 11-0. We are 41 points away from it. They've lost a lot closer than we have. I definitely wouldn't want to have to play Bama again, with or without Hendon healthy.

Bama has lost, but in no way have they been a bad team.
 

TNHopeful505

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2009
Messages
10,333
Likes
15,355
I actually tend to think this is pretty spot on. I like that it is holds accountable teams like LSU who got blown out to us early on in the season. It truly takes a holistic look at the season, which is hard to subjectively do when you're a voter with recency bias. We think that the teams in September are different than the teams in December. The season should count the same all 13 weeks. I appreciate your rankings.
 

Raebo

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 29, 2018
Messages
943
Likes
1,514
@bamawriter Do you think there might be a little Alabama bias in that algorithm? #4?

I know they're talented on paper but #4?
On a neutral field like Indianapolis and assuming Georgia is the best team, which team is most likely to defeating Georgia?
I would put Alabama ahead of TCU, LSU, Tennessee, maybe even ahead of Michigan and Ohio State. Just speculation and we will never know.
 

SayUWantAreVOLution

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2019
Messages
3,813
Likes
4,544
On a neutral field like Indianapolis and assuming Georgia is the best team, which team is most likely to defeating Georgia?
I would put Alabama ahead of TCU, LSU, Tennessee, maybe even ahead of Michigan and Ohio State. Just speculation and we will never know.
I'm just responding to the differences in the other ranking scales for a team like Bama, TN, TX, Penn State, and a few others.

I'll be curious to see how it matches up with the final results but the other systems are reasonably close to each other and this one seems to be an outlier.
 
Likes: Raebo

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
It’s more to keep up with but have you thought about adding opponent’s opponents winning percentage in? I bring it up because your latest rankings have a lot of lower tier teams in the top 25 and I assume that’s because beating a 5-5 Sunbelt team is no different than beating a 5-5 SEC team. Adding the opponent’s opponents winning percentage isn’t a perfect way to capture the relative strength of the opponent but it’s something and I think the BCS used to have such a component back in the day.
I considered it, but all it did was flatten the scores. This was especially true for a conference like the Big XII where every team plays every other team.
 
Likes: hUTch2002

bamawriter

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
25,084
Likes
14,483
I'm just responding to the differences in the other ranking scales for a team like Bama, TN, TX, Penn State, and a few others.

I'll be curious to see how it matches up with the final results but the other systems are reasonably close to each other and this one seems to be an outlier.
Again, math systems are simply stupid.
 

VN Store




Top