Florida game confidence

[norrislakevol]

This was finally true last year and the fact is the matter is you can't win in the SEC with Big East coaches. 2 of them have been replaced, these next 2 years will show if the last one has to be too

Urban Meyer coached at Utah and he dominated in the SEC.

 

[volfanecs]

urban meyer coached at utah and Teboe dominated in the sec.

fyp

 

[KBVol]

Statistics don't tell the whole tale. It's a team game after all. This year, Josh should have an O line comparable to what the others had for most of their careers, so I think to be fair you'd have to compare this year to the others' best years. Also, 6.6 ypc at Oregon doesn't reflect what Mariota would have done the SEC. Tebow had gaudy numbers, but he also scrambled a lot and threw to wide open receivers. I'm not sure after his NFL stint that anyone would claim that he is super accurate.

Accuracy:
Mariota
Newton/Barrett?
Tebow/Dobbs/Marshall

Arm strength:
Newto/Barrett/Mariota
Dobbs/Tebow/Marshall

Well, when you break it down like this, We need Dobbs to take a step this year.

I understand and agree with most of your points but don't quite get the whole "if he doesn't get his stats in the SEC they don't mean much" line of thinking. While the SEC is surely the best overall conference in the country, there are still other good conferences, other outstanding players in the rest of the country. And while stats are the whole story, they are a very large part of it as the best, most objective measure of achievement and comparison that we have. After all, when discussing a player's accomplishments and value, his statistics are 9 times out of 10 the first and most often things pointed to.

As far as a player's performances vs SEC defenses being the best measure of his value, keep in mind that we've seen the best SEC team with one of the best annual defenses in the country get shredded each of the last 3 years by teams outside the SEC ..... vs Oklahoma in 2014 (429 yds & 45 pts), vs Ohio St in 2015 (537 yds & 42 pts) and vs Clemson this year (550 yds & 40 pts).

There are other examples as well.....OleMiss vs TCU in 2015 comes to mind very quickly.

I personally have little to no doubt that Marcus Mariota, one of the greatest college qbs in college football history, would've had very good to similar success in the SEC to what he had in the PAC-12. After all, he only played one SEC team in his career, 2013 vs Tennessee, and he put up 59 points and 473 yards, 5 tds in 3 quarters.....had he and the other Oregon starters played the 4th quarter, they would've scored 80 vs UT.

I also think that while he might've had a tough go vs a handful of the better SEC run defenses, that he'd have had, on balance, great numbers playing an SEC schedule as well. For example, he'd have had a field day last year vs TAM, OleMiss, Miss St, Arky, Kentucky, Auburn and SCar. Also, if put in the exact same position, in the exact same plays as Dobbs vs Florida last year (eg, the 58 TD catch, the 62 yd run), which plays would the faster Mariota (4.52 40) not have made that Josh did? I submit none. And, does anybody believe that the much more accurate thrower Mariota wouldn't have had much more success passing the ball than Dobbs vs SEC defenses?

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

We better win! I'm flying from AZ to be there

 

[armchair]

Florida must laugh at us. As somebody said, we've become like vandy to them. They know they can play a crap game, or have a mediocre team, and still beat us. Last year, offensively, we played not lose in the fourth quarter--and that will usually lead to a loss. The staff had no balls; I mean, late in the game, running a QB draw/keeper for the 15th time in the game is not exactly going to fool anybody, especially an SEC defense. The last two years were pathetic--but then we have about 20 years of pathetic play against florida. I stopped watching the games, because we find new ways to choke every year.

 

[08Vol]

Urban Meyer coached at Utah and he dominated in the SEC.

Urban won a BCS game at Utah after going undefeated. 2 things Butch has yet to do at any level. If Butch wants to keep making $4+ million a year then he needs to start beating our rivals and winning big games. UGA was a nice start but after 3 years he is 1-8 against them. Also he is 0-3 against OOC P5 teams in the regular season. Maybe don't kick a field goal on 4th and an inch when you have Hurd.

 

[utvolpj]

Urban won a BCS game at Utah after going undefeated. 2 things Butch has yet to do at any level. If Butch wants to keep making $4+ million a year then he needs to start beating our rivals and winning big games. UGA was a nice start but after 3 years he is 1-8 against them. Also he is 0-3 against OOC P5 teams in the regular season. Maybe don't kick a field goal on 4th and an inch when you have Hurd.

Have to love posts like this. How dare Butch not be able to walk into a dumpster fire and immediately beat the best in cfb! Get on the hot seat!

 

[YankeeVol]

Urban won a BCS game at Utah after going undefeated. 2 things Butch has yet to do at any level. If Butch wants to keep making $4+ million a year then he needs to start beating our rivals and winning big games. UGA was a nice start but after 3 years he is 1-8 against them. Also he is 0-3 against OOC P5 teams in the regular season. Maybe don't kick a field goal on 4th and an inch when you have Hurd.

2-0 in bowl games though (one ranked 13th). Both have been huge wins.

This is the year everything falls into place. The talent is back to where it needs to be. He made the right move by ditching Jancek and getting Shoop.

 

[UTwild82]

Here are a few things we can count on:

-A relatively unknown UF player will have a career day
-Either UT will get a TD wiped away due to a phantom penalty or UF will get a TD despite committing an obvious penalty themselves
-We will have an extremely untimely turnover that wipes away all momentum
-Butch will have a meltdown on the sidelines and turn purple
-There will be CBS camera shots of speechless Vols fans with their hands on their heads several times during the game
-The game will be close in the 4th quarter
-Gary and Verne will mention the streak at least 10 times
-UF's biggest weakness heading into the game will be a non-factor, and our biggest strength will be nullified somehow

Despite all of that, I still think we win. But it won't be easy.

Add in several mentions of Dobbs's class schedule and you have it covered.

 

[GBO97]

2-0 in bowl games though (one ranked 13th). Both have been huge wins.

This is the year everything falls into place. The talent is back to where it needs to be. He made the right move by ditching Jancek and getting Shoop.

He won't listen to your argument, he's already made up his mind that Butch is an awful coach.

 

[Catbone]

Today was a double rainbow and nobody seaw that coming. Stranger things have happened but I think we're a whisker from a hair from dominating the turds. This is what a whisker looks like.

Hi.

 

[08Vol]

Have to love posts like this. How dare Butch not be able to walk into a dumpster fire and immediately beat the best in cfb! Get on the hot seat!

UF went 4-8 in 2013 and lost to an FCS school. Starting Peterman in the swamp was a mistake and a rookie coach would have known better. Even worse than starting him was his insistence that he keeps trying to pass the ball against that D. That game should have been a defensive struggle won by field goals and the pick 6.

 

[utvolpj]

UF went 4-8 in 2013 and lost to an FCS school. Starting Peterman in the swamp was a mistake and a rookie coach would have known better. Even worse than starting him was his insistence that he keeps trying to pass the ball against that D. That game should have been a defensive struggle won by field goals and the pick 6.

I see you completely avoided my overall point and singled in on just 1 of 12. Probably a good idea since addressing it would make you look ridiculous

 

[marmoteer]

I understand and agree with most of your points but don't quite get the whole "if he doesn't get his stats in the SEC they don't mean much" line of thinking. While the SEC is surely the best overall conference in the country, there are still other good conferences, other outstanding players in the rest of the country. And while stats are the whole story, they are a very large part of it as the best, most objective measure of achievement and comparison that we have. After all, when discussing a player's accomplishments and value, his statistics are 9 times out of 10 the first and most often things pointed to.

As far as a player's performances vs SEC defenses being the best measure of his value, keep in mind that we've seen the best SEC team with one of the best annual defenses in the country get shredded each of the last 3 years by teams outside the SEC ..... vs Oklahoma in 2014 (429 yds & 45 pts), vs Ohio St in 2015 (537 yds & 42 pts) and vs Clemson this year (550 yds & 40 pts).

There are other examples as well.....OleMiss vs TCU in 2015 comes to mind very quickly.

I personally have little to no doubt that Marcus Mariota, one of the greatest college qbs in college football history, would've had very good to similar success in the SEC to what he had in the PAC-12. After all, he only played one SEC team in his career, 2013 vs Tennessee, and he put up 59 points and 473 yards, 5 tds in 3 quarters.....had he and the other Oregon starters played the 4th quarter, they would've scored 80 vs UT.

I also think that while he might've had a tough go vs a handful of the better SEC run defenses, that he'd have had, on balance, great numbers playing an SEC schedule as well. For example, he'd have had a field day last year vs TAM, OleMiss, Miss St, Arky, Kentucky, Auburn and SCar. Also, if put in the exact same position, in the exact same plays as Dobbs vs Florida last year (eg, the 58 TD catch, the 62 yd run), which plays would the faster Mariota (4.52 40) not have made that Josh did? I submit none. And, does anybody believe that the much more accurate thrower Mariota wouldn't have had much more success passing the ball than Dobbs vs SEC defenses?

Dobbs might put up a comparable 40 time, but I expect him to put up better numbers this year even if he's a 4.8 guy. Reason being that I expect the passing game to open up this year which will open up more scramble lanes. This is where Mariota really had an advantage; teams respected Oregon's passing game way more than ours.

As for stats, they do tell a lot of the story, but there are more objective measures of how good a player is. There's a website that grades each play based on a rubric, so for accuracy, QBs are graded on something similar to balls and strikes. Pro scouts grade all the film as well, and while it necessarily can't be 100% objective, you would think that grader is not really biased one way or the other on balance. I contend that playing against 4-6 good defenses that game plan for you every year will always bias a player's stats lower than playing against mostly average defenses in all but 1-2 games. No, it probably wouldn't bias ypc by two whole yards, but you can't exactly rule it out.

So I don't disagree; Mariota was a great college QB. But I can't conclude that he's 50% better at running than Josh Dobbs.

 

[marmoteer]

UF went 4-8 in 2013 and lost to an FCS school. Starting Peterman in the swamp was a mistake and a rookie coach would have known better. Even worse than starting him was his insistence that he keeps trying to pass the ball against that D. That game should have been a defensive struggle won by field goals and the pick 6.

To be fair, Worley did not light the world on fire against Oregon the week before, and there were opportunities that he didn't seize. Peterman wasn't ready but Worley ended up playing better in relief and it may have helped him in the long run.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

We're doing a lot of Monday mornin' QBing up in here today, looks like.

Butch is doing fine. Is he flawless? Nope. On the other hand, neither is Saban. Or Meyer. Or even the great General Neyland. None of us are; it's the human condition.

So Butch has been building the program back to where it can compete for championships, and he's missed a few key opportunities along the way. That's important: they were along the way, while we were still climbing back up the mountain.

Well, we're back up top now, or close enough to it that we can touch it and taste it. So okay, you got him, he didn't beat Florida or Alabama while still climbing. Let's see how he does this year and beyond. That's the real story.

Go Vols!

 

[KBVol]

Dobbs might put up a comparable 40 time, but I expect him to put up better numbers this year even if he's a 4.8 guy. Reason being that I expect the passing game to open up this year which will open up more scramble lanes. This is where Mariota really had an advantage; teams respected Oregon's passing game way more than ours.

As for stats, they do tell a lot of the story, but there are more objective measures of how good a player is. There's a website that grades each play based on a rubric, so for accuracy, QBs are graded on something similar to balls and strikes. Pro scouts grade all the film as well, and while it necessarily can't be 100% objective, you would think that grader is not really biased one way or the other on balance. I contend that playing against 4-6 good defenses that game plan for you every year will always bias a player's stats lower than playing against mostly average defenses in all but 1-2 games. No, it probably wouldn't bias ypc by two whole yards, but you can't exactly rule it out.

So I don't disagree; Mariota was a great college QB. But I can't conclude that he's 50% better at running than Josh Dobbs.

Do you recall the name of the website? Honestly be curious to see it.

And to be clear, I'm in no way trying to denigrate or overly criticize Josh. He's THE integral component of our offense that makes it all go. He's the second best QB in the conference IMO, and one of the best in the country. I just think that when we compare him to some all-time greats like Tebow and Mariota we do him a disservice, like we would to about 98% of all other college qbs, because he, after being our starter for a year and half, just hasn't shown to be in that league yet. Hopefully he takes a great stride in 2016 as an accurate passer and we can have a different conversation.

 

[NYCVol]

We're doing a lot of Monday mornin' QBing up in here today, looks like.

Butch is doing fine. Is he flawless? Nope. On the other hand, neither is Saban. Or Meyer. Or even the great General Neyland. None of us are; it's the human condition.

So Butch has been building the program back to where it can compete for championships, and he's missed a few key opportunities along the way. That's important: they were along the way, while we were still climbing back up the mountain.

Well, we're back up top now, or close enough to it that we can touch it and taste it. So okay, you got him, he didn't beat Florida or Alabama while still climbing. Let's see how he does this year and beyond. That's the real story.

Go Vols!

Agree with this. I look at it in pretty simple terms:

1) We were not relevant when Jones arrived.
2) We are now relevant.
3) Head Ball Corch is the single biggest variable in the equation.

CBJ's not perfect but as far as I can tell he's learning and growing while RECRUITING LIKE A BOSS. Wouldn't trade rosters with any other team in the country. None.

And it sure seems to me that the players, coaches and support staff believe in him. That goes a long way...just ask Dooley.

Ultimately he'll be judged on Ws/Ls like everyone else but it sure seems like some are intent on belly-aching all the way to Atlanta.

GBO

 

[08Vol]

I see you completely avoided my overall point and singled in on just 1 of 12. Probably a good idea since addressing it would make you look ridiculous

You said he walked into a dumpster fire and shouldn't be expected to win. Looking at these past 3 years against our 3 rivals and P5 OOC regular season he is 1-11. How many of those games could he have won? How many would 1 play change the outcome? UGA 2013 lost on 1 play, UGA 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2015 lost on 1 play, OU 2015 lost on 1 play. Ok so he could have easily been 6-6 on just these 1 play games. That doesn't include a dumpster fire 2013 UF or a lost 4th quarter lead to Bama 2015 which would have been the biggest win of his career. So if you really look at it, we weren't a dumpster fire likes everyone says. 2013 had an all star O-line. So against these world beaters he could have easily been 8-4, or 6-6 on 1 play games. But he is 1-11 and you are what your record says you are

 

[TN Outlaw]

We will have the talent, experience, and atmosphere to take this game. I feel the staff has shown themselves better than avg with game planning so far as well but when sudden change happens during games it just seems CBJ has got out coached more times than not. Not a knock on Butch cuz I respect what he has done to this point but every coach has their weaker skillset and this is only my opinion of his. With CBJ learning on the job and CMD 2 yrs into his scheme with these weapons and what I'm thinking will prove to be a home run hire in CBS, I feel we'll see a marked improvement with in game decisions. As long as injuries, behavior probs, etc don't plague this team I'm VERY confident the good guys end this streak this yr. Just can't be uptight during/leading up to the game like CPF always was and can't let the game get too big for the coaches or players. Maybe use more of the mentality of last yrs UGA game. Just go have fun, play loose, and don't worry if u make a mistake cuz CBJ will shoulder the mistakes. Let Dobbs be Dobbs. Just don't wait till we are down by a mile!

 

[82_VOL_83]

I see you completely avoided my overall point and singled in on just 1 of 12. Probably a good idea since addressing it would make you look even more ridiculous

Fify

 

[utvolpj]

You said he walked into a dumpster fire and shouldn't be expected to win.

No I did not. I said holding his record up with games like bama and Oregon like it shows failure is ridiculous. You're just begging for people to see an angle that doesn't exist. You're counting games against him where the talent levels were no where close to equal thanks to the Dooley experiment

Looking at these past 3 years against our 3 rivals and P5 OOC regular season he is 1-11. How many of those games could he have won? How many would 1 play change the outcome? UGA 2013 lost on 1 play, UGA 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2015 lost on 1 play, OU 2015 lost on 1 play. Ok so he could have easily been 6-6 on just these 1 play games. That doesn't include a dumpster fire 2013 UF or a lost 4th quarter lead to Bama 2015 which would have been the biggest win of his career. So if you really look at it, we weren't a dumpster fire likes everyone says. 2013 had an all star O-line. So against these world beaters he could have easily been 8-4, or 6-6 on 1 play games. But he is 1-11 and you are what your record says you are

lol: you got me. I thought you were actually serious the first time. Arguing games like last seasons bama loss was one thing but your "we weren't a dumpster fire" line really put it over the top.

Pro tip - you never lose a game on one play

 

[armchair]

We're doing a lot of Monday mornin' QBing up in here today, looks like.

Butch is doing fine. Is he flawless? Nope. On the other hand, neither is Saban. Or Meyer. Or even the great General Neyland. None of us are; it's the human condition.

So Butch has been building the program back to where it can compete for championships, and he's missed a few key opportunities along the way. That's important: they were along the way, while we were still climbing back up the mountain.

Well, we're back up top now, or close enough to it that we can touch it and taste it. So okay, you got him, he didn't beat Florida or Alabama while still climbing. Let's see how he does this year and beyond. That's the real story.

Go Vols!

we start beating florida and bama. The thing is, florida hasn't even been very good lately--at least not offensively.

 

[armchair]

Poor Phil, he had it rough dealing with spurrier. The 'ole ball coach was cocky and fearless--a former QB who liked to wing it, liked to go for it on 4th down, and he no doubt gave ulcers to Fulmer, our conservative former offensive lineman. Spurrier was throwing TD passes from our 35 on 4th and 12 while Fulmer would try a FG facing a 4th and 1 from their 35.

And Jones is a lot like Fulmer in that he gets stupid conservative in crunch time in big games. You can't play that way and win big games.

 

[Reefa_Madness]

Pro tip - you never lose a game on one play

Actually, it could be argued that you can...over the years lots of games have been lost on the last play of the game, with the 2015 Michigan loss to Michigan State on a botched punt coming to mind as an example.