Aaron Kampman had a season where he got 15.5 sacks. Even a mediocre player can have a lucky year.
Joey Bosa's 2016 = lucky
Kampman never got over 6.5 until his 5th season as a pro.
Bosa might well flame out, but the list of guys who've had 10+ sacks as a rookie is almost entirely littered with guys who went on to have multiple All-Pro seasons and/or had at least some extended period of elite production (like Jevon Kearse who had a 3 year window as one of the best pure pass rushers in the game before his production dropped off because of injury/loss of speed).
He will never be viewed as an elite player. And that is what a #3 overall pick is supposed to be. ELITE
There are a few problems with this argument.
1. Drafts vary in how many elite prospects there are and at what position. So yeah, in theory the #3 pick should always be an elite player, but there isn't always an elite player at the position of need for a team picking there.
2. It depends on how you define "elite." Is elite the guy who gives you 2-3 unstoppable seasons and drops off (like Kearse did), or the the guy who puts up ~10 sacks a season over a decade, but never has that 14-15 sack season.
3. Honestly, I think your entire way of thinking here is flawed to begin with. The framework you're using to look at top draft picks is a little screwy.
Top draft picks used on players who aren't QBs are mostly about cost performance. The rookie wage scale gives you a 4-5 year window to get top talent cheap. If you're picking top ten, you're trying to find a player who will give you 4-5 years of top end production while you build the rest of your team through other means.
So if you're looking for a pass rusher and drafting top 5, what you're really thinking about is how many games/sacks/pressures/tackles you can get per $, not necessarily whether that guy will be viewed as elite or not. There's simply not going to be a Julius Peppers there for the taking every year. You're looking to get 4/5 years of ~10 sacks to go along with a guy who will be on the field all or most of that time. Whether they turn out to be an all time great doesn't really matter.
So if a guy like Bosa stays mostly healthy through his rookie contract, ends up with 9-11 sack per year type production, and is never considered among the best of the best when it comes to pass rushers, he still could be considered a really successful pick at #3 (especially if he holds up well against the run to boot).
