A Theory about JG

#51
#51
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
Between the ears.
 
#52
#52
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
I’m equally as bored so I’ll take a stab at this one. This is based on my opinion but I’ve always told my qbs to use the first 2 drives of a game to calculate the time allowed for S2S (snap to sack) if he didn’t move off his spot at the back of his drop. We practiced that way as well. That number is usually between 2.5(poor protection) and 4.0 (great protection) before he absolutely HAS to move or get hit. The first two drives as a qb he should know what that number is and react accordingly off of it. It should tell him if he’s going to have time for deep routes or how far he’ll be able to get through his progressions on any given play. At 2.5 obviously he’s got time for short to intermediate routes and won’t get past his second read. Best to look at the intermediate coverage and check down right away if it’s not there immediately. No need to explain if he had 4.0. Everything is wide open. That being said my personal opinion is JG lacks that internal clock. He treats every play as an individual play and holds his spot, waiting regardless of previous outcomes. Imo it can be coached out of him if he’s made to practice to get rid of the ball within the olines average time of protection. The qb coach should know that number by week 2. Once again.... just my opinion and my approach to the same problem. It by no means means I’m criticizing JG or CW.
 
#53
#53
I think the fact that he has had 4 QB coaches, 4 OCs, and 2 significantly different offensive systems in 4 years has to have messed with his mind and made him question himself sometimes. I think having a second year with the same QB coach, OC and same system will help settle him down some, and while he probably will not become a great QB, he will be better. He will probably start the first game based on his experience. Whether he remains the starter will depend on how much he has improved and how quickly the younger guys pick things up. GBO.

If qb play is even close jg should not start, because if a freshman can play close with the limited time in practice, think of what they would be with a few games played. Jg it appears shines in practice. I think they should put a timer on his passing in practice throw where the receiver is supposed to be whether he appears to be open or not with a time limit on release. If he fails at this he doesn't start, because he will keep making the same mistakes.
 
#54
#54
This QB controversy ? Will all be settled in 6-7 months by the Coaches. I suspect JG will start, but will struggle again with late throws, overthrows etc. I certainly hope he does not carry over his bad habits to 20' season and should do better with the O line we will have. Pulling for JG but you can see this from 100 miles away- once Bailey takes a snap in JG's place-- Bailey's team from then on.
 
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#56
#56
My theory is that is not JG out there, it is Randy Sanders dressed as JG ( the masked QB ) and everyone knows Randy is a lot older and can not process that fast anymore.
 
#57
#57
Its funny how when people actually dive into his stats it shows something totally opposite of what everyone seems to think. anyway, I think the one stat no one has been paying attention and the one that's gonna pay the biggest dividends is having the same OC and QB coach 2 years in a row for the first time. This will be the first season JG is not learning a new offense. His seasoning will show and unless the new KID is some kinda beast (I hope he is) JG is firmly in the driver's seat.
I agree. Someone going to have to be lights out to take the job out of the gate. Bailey thrives at the highest level of GA HS classification, threw for 4th highest career total...the guys ahead of him on the list are pretty darn good... and he won the schools first stat championship in 30 something years. So, a lot of things point towards him having all the tools to succeed at a high level.
 
#58
#58
My theory is that the entire Tn team pretty much stunk overall in '17 and '18. The OL was trash, our defense was soft and pretty much the worst in the league, player development was lacking, we had a young receiving core and a terrible locker room atmosphere, all while being led by an erratic young Fr QB in JG. In '17 he was playing for a lame duck coach and in 18 a new unproven coach who at times looked a bit lost. JG nor the team ever had a chance to be good those 2 seasons and nearly every analyst across the country agreed. 2019 was a different story as I feel the Vols finally had a competent roster with enough experience and talent to start winning football games, which is exactly what we did by going 8-5. Pruitt had to clean house after the Fl fiasco and what was left of the team came together and played strong every game the rest of the way and JG played a vital role and made winning plays in every single game where we had a W in the column. He also came back to play the week after putting 7 screws in his hand, kid couldn't even tie his own shoes, played 1 handed the rest of the way and made winning plays while doing so.
Notice there are no woulda, shoulda coulda statements in those words after a successful season. He certainly struggled, and you could see in interviews how badly those struggles played on him. He'll be stronger because of those struggles and I think we should get behind him and all of us should be hoping he has his best year yet which could turn into something special with the talented '20 roster. He knows he didn't play well last year and my guess is he works like crazy to make up for it. Several on here believe he's incapable of success and they've given up on him, I think failure will motivate him and he leads us to another successful season just 3 years removed from being the worst team in the league.

Nice to see another fan who isn't eager to and doesn't automatically toss JG into the trash bin.
 
#59
#59
I may be wrong because I’m not in the war room or help game plan but I fully expect us to really try and establish the run game first this year. Unquestionably the OL will be our strong suit and the RB’s on the roster should be successful behind them. IMO playing QB is totally different for a run first team and hopefully we’ll see JG really settle in, manage the game, and let our other QBs learn. Unless HB is exceptionally mature and ready(I doubt it) there’s not another QB on our team better than JG IMO. Of course the backup is always better until he actually gets in the game. Either way I hope JG has an outstanding year which will translate to Vol wins.
 
#60
#60
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.

Yes, you certainly are bored....
 
#61
#61
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.

Yes you are bored
 
#62
#62
A lot.... when he could wait that long.

I don't think it is trust though. I think he just doesn't have the innate ability to process fast and then anticipate throws. There's a component of imagination to it where you see what is about to happen. Not every person is born with an ability to do that. It appears that JG is one of those people.
Agree!! The best way I know to explain/show just what you say is:
A baseball outfielder who breaks for a ball BEFORE the pitch gets to the plate. The best, can be seen doing this all the time. Especially from the behind the plate camera when you look beyond the infield at the center fielder.
 
#63
#63
He has all the physical talent in the world but he just can’t mentally process fast enough. In order to be elite you have to instinctively make decisions. His problem is he waits to actually see someone get open instead of throwing them open. That’s what separates him from the top level QBs right now because he can make every throw, just not in a timely fashion.

Good response.. I think this is why he is nearly always "late" with the ball getting to the receiver.
 
#64
#64
I think he started being groomed for QB at an early age and has had a ton of training leading up to his role as QB for UT. He is a highly trained athlete who has overcome his lack of physical and mental quickness with a massive number of repetitions (hard work). He will never be that guy who dominates athletically but, 1 play aside, he can be a good leader, team player and adequate QB.
 
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#65
#65
This QB controversy ? Will all be settled in 6-7 months by the Coaches. I suspect JG will start, but will struggle again with late throws, overthrows etc. I certainly hope he does not carry over his bad habits to 20' season and should do better with the O line we will have. Pulling for JG but you can see this from 100 miles away- once Bailey takes a snap in JG's place-- Bailey's team from then on.
Brian Mauer took over last season. Only reason JG came back was Mauer's concussions and that he was making dumb decisions on throwing into coverage. I think if Mauer had what it takes - we'd not have seen JG back. Of course, cut him a little slack.. true freshman.

Butch Jones was bad about leaving a QB in too long and not giving backups "meaningful snaps". At least both Maurer and Strout got some experience beyond the "victory formation".
 
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#66
#66
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.


I say suck it up Nancy, it's D1 football.
 
#67
#67
Nice to see another fan who isn't eager to and doesn't automatically toss JG into the trash bin.

Because after watching JG only exhibit marginal improvement over the last 3 years, and not expecting a seachange in his abilities at this point in his career is automatically tossing JG into the trash bin?
 
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#68
#68
Because after watching JG only exhibit marginal improvement over the last 3 years, and not expecting a seachange in his abilities at this point in his career is automatically tossing JG into the trash bin?

Just lay it down to some of us not giving up faith. We aren't all cut from the same cloth as you surely know. Some folks are cut from, "Abandon all hope ye who enter here." Others are snipped from the fabric of, "Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." With that, let each go on their merry way.
 
Last edited:
#69
#69
I think we're definitely overthinking this. JG has had a consistent problem with not leading his WR's. Also has a problem at times with I believe predetermined destination for the ball instead of making progressions. I think there is clearly a timing issue and I believe JG has a hard time letting the ball rip until he sees his WR clearly coming open (specifically deep routes), instead of being able to anticipate and throw his receiver open. We have some guys on the roster now that have the speed to burn db's. Lets hope JG can recognize that and anticipate delivering the ball in a more timely fashion this year.
 
#70
#70
Agree!! The best way I know to explain/show just what you say is:
A baseball outfielder who breaks for a ball BEFORE the pitch gets to the plate. The best, can be seen doing this all the time. Especially from the behind the plate camera when you look beyond the infield at the center fielder.
Great racecar drivers have a high sense of anticipation. They drive not by what they're seeing but what they expect to see. Great basketball players and particularly the great passers have that ability.

The ability to read and anticipate is what sets guys like Manning apart from others. He had very good physical talent but that wasn't what sustained him or made him special.

Your outfielder one is really good since that player will see and "read" multiple things that gives them the jump. They'll study tendencies too. At the moment of reaction, they see a pitch location, the posture and first movement of the batter, and the timing of the swing... then act. Some of it is conscious. Some of it is practiced and developed. But some of it is just innate.... instinct.
 
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#71
#71
That's not wholly accurate for 2018.

Last season, Guarantano was sacked six times, per PFF, in under 2.5 seconds. That’s about in line with the other four guys, all of whom were sacked four times in the same scenario. Guarantano’s “average time to throw” was 2.35 seconds. Fromm’s was 2.38 seconds, a feat he’s repeated exactly to the second the last two seasons. Now “time to throw” doesn’t automatically indicate throws under pressure. It’s simply how quickly a quarterback gets rid of the ball. Per the data, Guarantano typically did a nice job making decisive decisions.

Conversely, Guarantano really struggled when he held the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds. Now, so did the rest of the quarterbacks mentioned. For instance, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage dropped 20 points (77.9 vs. 57.0) on such throws. But he still had 20 touchdowns and mostly avoided sacks. Among SEC quarterbacks, only Tua and Fromm had passer ratings over 100.0 on such passes.

Since he was a freshman, Guarantano has had bouts where he holds on the ball too long. Of his 22 sacks last season, 16 came on plays where he was in the pocket for longer than 2.5 seconds. Two of his three interceptions came on such throws, too.

VolQuest - A deep dive into Jarrett Guarantano’s 2018 season using PFF data
Would love to see the PFF data on time to throw.

SECstatcat has JG at 2.74 seconds to throw with only Bowden worse. Or were they talking about an average of 2.35 ONLY on throws of under 2.5? That stat seems to relate better to what we saw.
 
#73
#73
Just lay it down to some of us not giving up faith. We aren't all cut from the same cloth as you surely know. Some folks are cut from, "Abandon all hope ye who enter here." Others are snipped from the fabric of, "Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." With that, let each go on their merry way.

This isn't a matter of "faith". There is no "faith" involved in a player being able or unable to raise their performance. Just like there is no "faith" involved in whether a coach is able to elevate a player any further than their own limitations.

There's literally hundreds of hours of film of JG at this point, and what they show is a middling QB, who doesn't have the mental aptitude to play at the level necessary to be successful in the SEC. Spending additional time and resources attempting to get marginal improvement out of a 5th year QB when you have freshmen and RS freshmen QBs on the roster that have a much higher ceiling would be coaching malpractice just like we saw at the first of the 2019 season.
 
#74
#74
This isn't a matter of "faith". There is no "faith" involved in a player being able or unable to raise their performance. Just like there is no "faith" involved in whether a coach is able to elevate a player any further than their own limitations.

There's literally hundreds of hours of film of JG at this point, and what they show is a middling QB, who doesn't have the mental aptitude to play at the level necessary to be successful in the SEC. Spending additional time and resources attempting to get marginal improvement out of a 5th year QB when you have freshmen and RS freshmen QBs on the roster that have a much higher ceiling would be coaching malpractice just like we saw at the first of the 2019 season.

OK. Peace, man.
 
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#75
#75
He wasnt good in high school. He isn't good in college. His recruitment basically led to UT being sold a bill of goods. End of story.

Not knocking the guy as a person but he was never cut out to be a D1 QB at a historically top tier program.
 
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