A Theory about JG

#1

VolInNW

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#1
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
 
#4

OrangeMagic

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#4
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
Clearly, he's not working the aversion therapy aspect...
 
#6

FlyFishnVol

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#6
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
Ok, it is already setting in, the post-football-stress-syndrom (PFSS), it might appear to the average CFB fan that these things don't exist in the real or imagined world we live in, but it is actually the withdrawal symptoms that are brought on right after football season and before spring practice, then there is a recovery period that last about 4 weeks and a relapse occurs in May. There some "home remedies" that might treat the symptoms, but not a cure, watching classic football on ESPN or going to your old VHS tapes, or just looking at Youtube. However, it is just a temporary thing, once you realize that there is no one to complain to about the 1997 Sugar Bowl or the "florida non-catch" in the endzone"............yes, it's a terrible affliction that has no end or real treatment. I have no advice to give, because I am not sure if this is me typing this response on Volnation.............Yes, I am a PFSS survivor and my name is FlyFishnVol.......welcome to the PFSS Meeting.

Go Vols!!
 
#8

sjt18

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#8
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.
You've put the cart in front of the horse. He got "nailed" so often in large measure because he processed reads so slow and was so cautious.... and because he was even worse at that point at anticipating throws. He had/has to wait until a guy is open before throwing. The announcer in the IU game nailed it.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.
Virtually every QB who gets hit too much will speed up.... even become reckless with the ball. If his cerebellum is causing him to freeze even for a moment... then it is dangerous for him to be on the field tough or not.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
There is a factor of "survival" in it. Part of being a good QB will always be instinct. Fight vs flight.... you need a guy who tends toward aggressive response. JG slows down under pressure- "hiding" is a "flight" tendency.
 
#9

Sara Clark

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#9
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
Usually I find the area of psychology to be interesting. But this JG case, simply drains the brain. I like your theory, but really I don't know. Hope he get's it figured out before season starts. If not, Dear God, let us have a better option.

*Edit* In the meantime, hope he stays off social media...that surely will mess with his head.
 
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#11

Iam4utalways

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#11
It’s a trust issue.

He has to trust himself to make the throw, the receivers to run the correct route and the line to protect him.

I wonder how many times he threw to JJ or MC even when they were covered because he trusted them?
 
#12

sjt18

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#12
It’s a trust issue.

He has to trust himself to make the throw, the receivers to run the correct route and the line to protect him.

I wonder how many times he threw to JJ or MC even when they were covered because he trusted them?
A lot.... when he could wait that long.

I don't think it is trust though. I think he just doesn't have the innate ability to process fast and then anticipate throws. There's a component of imagination to it where you see what is about to happen. Not every person is born with an ability to do that. It appears that JG is one of those people.
 
#14

GTBATV

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#14
My thoughts are that early on in his career, other teams would blitz, rush the QB, etc. JG would throw up a lot of 50/50 balls just to turn it loose. We had great receivers that often won those balls. The past two seasons, our o line is better and the defense stayed home and forced him to be a QB. I think that exposed some decision making ability.
 
#16

BeardedVol

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#16
Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball.
That's not wholly accurate for 2018.

Last season, Guarantano was sacked six times, per PFF, in under 2.5 seconds. That’s about in line with the other four guys, all of whom were sacked four times in the same scenario. Guarantano’s “average time to throw” was 2.35 seconds. Fromm’s was 2.38 seconds, a feat he’s repeated exactly to the second the last two seasons. Now “time to throw” doesn’t automatically indicate throws under pressure. It’s simply how quickly a quarterback gets rid of the ball. Per the data, Guarantano typically did a nice job making decisive decisions.

Conversely, Guarantano really struggled when he held the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds. Now, so did the rest of the quarterbacks mentioned. For instance, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage dropped 20 points (77.9 vs. 57.0) on such throws. But he still had 20 touchdowns and mostly avoided sacks. Among SEC quarterbacks, only Tua and Fromm had passer ratings over 100.0 on such passes.

Since he was a freshman, Guarantano has had bouts where he holds on the ball too long. Of his 22 sacks last season, 16 came on plays where he was in the pocket for longer than 2.5 seconds. Two of his three interceptions came on such throws, too.

VolQuest - A deep dive into Jarrett Guarantano’s 2018 season using PFF data
 
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#18

Roustabout

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#18
I thought I would take a step back and try and figure out a theory as to why JG can't seem to release a pass on time, why he tends to hold the ball a half-second too long. And I think it might be Pavlovian.

Think about it, the first two seasons he played, he often got NAILED just as he would release the ball. No one denies he took some savage hits in 2017 and 2018. Heck, even those of us who don't want him to start see clearly just how tough the kid is, and that he clearly wants to win.

That said, if he got accustomed to taking a hit once he released, maybe his cerebellum is forcing him to hold the ball to avoid the response it expects, and it takes a 1/4 or 1/2 second for his cerebrum to override this base instinct.

If that is part of the issue, I wonder how in the heck you coach that out of someone?

For that matter, a lot of us question his decision making after the snap. Maybe he goes into survival mode (more than most QBs) because of those hits. So his decisions are less reason and more survival.

Anyway, just a theory. I'm bored. Figured I'd open this up for discussion.
It’s simple. Not everyone has the mental makeup to play QB. Hell, look at how bad some of the QBs are in the NFL. There are maybe 10 really great QBs active in the NFL. You don’t have to be great to succeed in college, but there are some basic skills that help. Be a gamer. Guys that think on their feet and feel the rush always do well in college. See Josh Dobbs. There was no bad play call when he was in the game. When the play goes south JG cracks. He doesn’t adjust or improvise. He isn’t elusive. He doesn’t feel the pass rush. He doesn’t seem comfortable, ever.
 
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#19

Remy

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#19
Good QBs from pee wees to the NFL all have a good timer in their head. If you listened to Aiken and other former pro QBs during games, they use the term "rhythm." If it's a 3 step drop or a seven step drop they are on different time but still should almost be like keeping the beat to a song., Steps, back foot plant, throw. Your head is s'posed to be up the whole time looking off the target and making sure the coverage is what you thought it was at the snap and throw. JG has zero rhythm when it comes to throwing the ball, none. He's like, steps, back foot plant, let me look around and then throw.
 
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#20

terrypedigo

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#20
I am like you must have to much time, my theory is he is so afraid of making a mistake and coach JP JUMPING IN HIS FACE IN FRONT OF 100,000 fans and 5 million on tv he has to see the receiver with a 5 yard head start instead of throwing the receiver open, and it seems like he is at his best when we are in hurry up and he doesn't have time to think about the play we are running, im afraid he has got as good as he is going to get, but if you go back and look at the Auburn game in 18, he played as good as you could expect.
 
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#21

njvols

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#21
My theory is that no one can come up with a theory to explain whats wrong with him.
My theory is he cares too much or tries to be perfect and ends up pressing, instead of trusting in his ability and coaches. You can almost see it in his eyes. When he’s been benched, he either settles down or comes back in PO’d or both and he has a different look about him. Great kid. I wish nothing but the best for him, but if he’s going to be a full season starter for us, he’s going to have to figure it out.
 
#23

VolPack22

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#23
He has all the physical talent in the world but he just can’t mentally process fast enough. In order to be elite you have to instinctively make decisions. His problem is he waits to actually see someone get open instead of throwing them open. That’s what separates him from the top level QBs right now because he can make every throw, just not in a timely fashion.
 
#24

pimo1

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#24
That's not wholly accurate for 2018.

Last season, Guarantano was sacked six times, per PFF, in under 2.5 seconds. That’s about in line with the other four guys, all of whom were sacked four times in the same scenario. Guarantano’s “average time to throw” was 2.35 seconds. Fromm’s was 2.38 seconds, a feat he’s repeated exactly to the second the last two seasons. Now “time to throw” doesn’t automatically indicate throws under pressure. It’s simply how quickly a quarterback gets rid of the ball. Per the data, Guarantano typically did a nice job making decisive decisions.

Conversely, Guarantano really struggled when he held the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds. Now, so did the rest of the quarterbacks mentioned. For instance, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage dropped 20 points (77.9 vs. 57.0) on such throws. But he still had 20 touchdowns and mostly avoided sacks. Among SEC quarterbacks, only Tua and Fromm had passer ratings over 100.0 on such passes.

Since he was a freshman, Guarantano has had bouts where he holds on the ball too long. Of his 22 sacks last season, 16 came on plays where he was in the pocket for longer than 2.5 seconds. Two of his three interceptions came on such throws, too.

VolQuest - A deep dive into Jarrett Guarantano’s 2018 season using PFF data
Its funny how when people actually dive into his stats it shows something totally opposite of what everyone seems to think. anyway, I think the one stat no one has been paying attention and the one that's gonna pay the biggest dividends is having the same OC and QB coach 2 years in a row for the first time. This will be the first season JG is not learning a new offense. His seasoning will show and unless the new KID is some kinda beast (I hope he is) JG is firmly in the driver's seat.
 
#25

Voltopia

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#25
They talk about this phenomenon all the time in analyzing NFL quarterbacks. Good QBs can anticipate where and when receivers should be open, which I've seen them call "seeing the window" or "anticipation" or something along those lines. Guarantano doesn't seem to see the window all that well. He has to see them get open to recognize it, but the problem is that successful passes are based on finding who will be open before the defense does. Couple that with a tendency to make those "ten yards over DWA's head" sort of throws, and you have extreme inconsistency at a position where consistency, even less-talented consistency, will serve you very well. Offenses can succeed by having consistency at the QB position -- by knowing what's going to happen when they call this play or that play, and knowing that they can get the ball in this player's hands or that player's hands -- and a consistency of performance there helps coaches make decisions on offense. That's why you hear people talk about "game manager" QBs. A consistent B or B+ QB in some ways helps a lot more than a QB that can be an A- one play and then a C the next play. We've never seen that consistency in JG.
 

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