Recruiting Forum Football Talk IX

#63,977
#63,977
SmyrnaATLVolisback said:
This team isn’t talented?

Come on now. This team is talented. They make stupid decisions and have bad turnovers way too much. And don’t get off the field on third down.

I don’t think talent is the issue. Depth is an issue. Not talent
Click to expand...
Yeah we are good enough to beat anybody, but just have some of the worst luck and untimely discipline ever.

My question is, can we keep from catastrophic turnovers and brain farts to win these last three? There's no way Vandy or FL beats us straight up if we don't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SmyrnaATLVolisback
#63,978
#63,978
SmyrnaATLVolisback said:
I still think a three loss team has a shot to make the playoff this year. Many more upsets and losses are coming for teams above us. Not saying that puts us in, but more teams keep losing and I think someone sneaks in.

Really just need GT, Louisville, VA, or ND to get one more loss. Other losses are coming for 1-2 loss teams ahead of us.
Click to expand...
It wouldn’t be us, we dont have a quality win yet. ,
 
  • Like
Reactions: Checker_the_Shire
#63,979
#63,979
SmyrnaATLVolisback said:
I still think a three loss team has a shot to make the playoff this year. Many more upsets and losses are coming for teams above us. Not saying that puts us in, but more teams keep losing and I think someone sneaks in.

Really just need GT, Louisville, VA, or ND to get one more loss. Other losses are coming for 1-2 loss teams ahead of us.
Click to expand...
There’s 0 chance we get in at 3 losses ahead of a 3-loss ND. The committee loves ND and will do whatever they can to put them in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hardy, Rocky_Top_Vol13 and volsagain
#63,983
#63,983
InVOLuntary said:
I've never said you or anyone was dumb. I simply brought stats that people wanted to "qualify" by saying we shouldn't count this or you're "cherry picking" stats to fit your narrative. The fact remain that we've beaten no one with a pulse this season and we've struggled to beat the SEC that are on life support. Our only chance to beat a ranked team on our schedule is Vanderbilt. We also travel to FL where we haven't won in over 20 years. We'll see how those go.

On to next year, we have much more difficult schedule. We break in a new QB, likely a true or redshirt freshman. We lose a bunch on the DL. I think it's likely we have a similar record next year, maybe worse. That's year 6.

As to Banks, I've said for years that he's unqualified to coach at this level. The only way he looks good is when he's got a dominant DL that's extremely deep. For him to succeed he has to get consistent pressure rushing 4. Otherwise his scheme (or lack of) is exposed. I made the comment that if he stays it will cost Heupel his job. I still believe that.

In summary, you have to ask the question, do you think the Vols are on an upward trajectory, staying about the same, or downward? It's hard for me to make an argument that the trajectory is upward. That means we are either maintaining or downward. It's my opinion that we are about the same. I think we are a perennial 8,9 win team with an occasional 10 win season. If folks think that's ok, that's fine. I dont expect a national championship every year. I do think we should expect to be in the top 1/3 of the conference most every year. With an expanded playoff that means you are in the playoffs most every year. If that makes me unrealistic then guilty as charged.
Click to expand...
You have a super small sample size of time without restrictions and sanctions hanging over the program to be making trajectory pronouncements. It's like saying "his first mile of the marathon was 7 minutes, but the 2nd mile was 7:15 so we're on a bad trajectory to do well in this marathon."

You're usually reasonable, but expecting a bottom dwelling program for 20 years to become perennial top 1/3 in 5 years with all the penalties and sanctions is pretty unreasonable.

Most everyone outside the program is floored the Heupel turned things around so quickly, but you're saying he has t achieved perennial top third in the conference fast enough? Do you not remember how bad we were and for how long? Saban is about the only one who's ever done it quicker than Heupel. Dozens if not hundreds of other coaches have failed to bring SEC programs out of the dumps at all like Heupel has, let alone so quickly.

Take the long view, don't make trajectory calculations on a small sample size, and keep in perspective how many coaches have been unable to bring an SEC program out of the dumps to where Heupel has gotten us. If we're still not perennial top third in another 5 years, then I think it'd be appropriate to question our trajectory.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LaagerVol, JacketVol, drvenner and 3 others
#63,984
#63,984
SoilVol said:
You can't just change the definition of a straw man fallacy to fit your narrative. Straw man has nothing to do with "dismissing facts" lmao.

A straw man is misrepresenting your opponents argument to make it easier for you to attack their position.

You built up a straw man by creating this narrative that I, and others, are just okay with 8-9 wins every year and an off chance a playoff berth. That's a fake argument. Nobody said that.

In fact, if you want to have an honest conversation about this I'll tell you what the reality of the situation is.

Most people, myself included, are okay with an occasional 8-9 win season while consistently being in the 10-win category and consistent playoff berths. You're painting it differently. We are okay with this season, not as the "norm" but as an occasional exception (especially considering the circumstances of this season/offseason) due to what we've seen this staff can produce.

Now if it turns into more 8-9 wins than 10+, then we can have that conversation. But in his first 4 years we've had two 10+ and two <10 win seasons. That's counting year 1. We could still hit 10 this year by winning out plus bowl game.

We've yet to have back-2-back sub 10 seasons. So even having this argument that fans are just okay with having 8-9 win seasons every year is soooo disingenuous dude. It's creating a non-existent belief for you to be mad at, and its a scenario that hasn't shown itself to be reality.
Click to expand...
Well stated Soil. My biggest frustration is the need to question Heupel over and over and over again. If you truly love the Vols there has to be a time where you just take a step back and ask yourself, what am I trying to accomplish by continually questioning a coach with the past success of Heupel? If the trends change and he ends up going in reverse for several years then Tennessee leadership will address the problem at that time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WesTnVol and SoilVol
#63,988
#63,988
peaygolf said:
November 8, 2003
Vols - 10
;Canes - 6


Tennessee knocked Miami out of the national championship picture Saturday for the first time in four years.

Derrick Tinsley scored on fourth down and the No. 18 Volunteers upset the sixth-ranked Hurricanes 10-6, ending the nation's longest home-winning streak at 26 games.
The Hurricanes failed to score a touchdown at home for the first time since 1984. It also was the first time since a 47-0 drubbing at Florida State in 1997 that Miami (7-2) failed to scored a touchdown in any game. And they looked bad doing it.

Brock Berlin threw two interceptions and fumbled once -- and probably lost his starting job for the rest of the season. The Hurricanes also had 12 penalties for 121 yards, including a key one that helped Tennessee (7-2) score its only touchdown.

Tennessee (7-2) capitalized on just about all of Miami's mistakes -- much like Virginia Tech did last week in snapping the Hurricanes' 39-game regular-season winning streak.
Kevin Simon intercepted a pass from Berlin on the first play of the second quarter, and James Wilhoit kicked a 41-yard field goal five plays later to tie the game at 3.
The Volunteers made it 10-3 just before the half with a 15-play drive that took more than nine minutes.

The Hurricanes, widely considered on of college football's most undisciplined teams, was penalized 15 yards for roughing the punter to keep the drive alive. Tennessee picked up another 15 yards on a personal foul after an incomplete pass on second-and-12.

Instead of facing third down, the Vols were in field-goal range. On the ensuing play, Vince Wilfork jumped off sides for the second time in the game. After five consecutive runs and then a timeout, coach Phillip Fulmer decided to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 2. Receiver Derrick Tinsley scored on an end around, and the Vols led 10-3.

View attachment 788123
Click to expand...
Colquit’s punt that was muffed needs mentioned.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jlawso21, peaygolf and drvenner
#63,991
#63,991
Jackcrevol said:
Disney is valued at 199.10B. That'll show em.
Click to expand...
Yes, but they still manage each business unit as a profit center, so if sports programming has a long-term project ROIC below whatever they view as their required return, they'll spin it off to someome else who might manage it differently. So financial pressure can create change, just no way to know whether new management would be better or worse in our view.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SagginVawls
#63,995
#63,995
vol9799 said:
Yes, but they still manage each business unit as a profit center, so if sports programming has a long-term project ROIC below whatever they view as their required return, they'll spin it off to someome else who might manage it differently. So financial pressure can create change, just no way to know whether new management would be better or worse in our view.
Click to expand...
I mean, I am being devil's advocate. Which network would have CFB, and be not for profit?
 
#63,996
#63,996
Jackcrevol said:
Think the argument of Heupel ceiling is based on recency bias. This team isnt very talented, esp on back end on defense. How that happened, no idea.

Another factor that gets lost in noise, is .739 winning pctge. Plug all that in.

One factor we arent including, is modifications to his offense. Willingness to modify, or adapt. Teams had schemed his offense. People are down on him, bc of the defense. Yes that's his hat to wear, also.

But, if you've been out in the dark, cold weather for 15 years (cold ass syndrome) it gives you a massive appreciation, and understanding for right here right now.

Before I rant about my point. Let's not forget that 5 years ago, we werent even competitive with:

1. UGA
2. Florduh
3. Bammer
4. Oklahoma

Now we have a shot at beating them, on the reg.

This is a crucial finale for Heup. I think it's gonna be a tough slog. People are talking 9-3, lol. I think that would be very impressive with this team. 7-5 is going to be hard to justify.

This program, the amount of resources, a preferable schedule, top offense. Never going to be easier. So, I get where people are coming from.

One other thing to consider is that Head Coaching situations right now, arent sustainable. Demand far out weighs supply. Programs are throwing around obscene amounts of money, like single use plastics, for what? 10 wins, 11 wins and a shot at the playoffs?

Ive said this 1000 times, and Ill say it again. Of we dont appreciate where we were, and where we are NOW. Another program will gladly take Josh Heuepel, and his top offense off our hands. Stadium is full, bellies are full, coffers arw full. I dunno what people need to do other than enjoy this for what it is.

it is always more difficult to take the step to elite, than it is to slide back into oblivion.

I dont want to go back there.
Click to expand...
Well said Jack. I honestly think another thing many people are missing with the new reality of college football with NIL is that it truly has become NFL Lite. If you follow the NFL you see that anybody can beat anybody on any given Sunday. A teams season is much more dependent on injuries and a few breaks. Kansas City and Andy Reid are going in the wrong direction. They didn't win the Super Bowl last year and are 4-4 this year. Reid's going in the wrong direction and if they have a subpar season next year seems like they should probably move on. The thought that a coach should be able to build a program in 4-5 years and just maintain a level of excellence in my view is simply wishful thinking and asking to be disappointed. Too many variables such as injury, transfers, schedule, etc. While Tennessee does have a lot of resources, I think it is wildly overstated on this board and people are struggling with the reality of where we are at. In the SEC we are likely to be in the middle of the pack with spend in the NIL arena. The concept that Heupel won't spend because he is stubborn or doesn't want to is crazy talk. He has a budget and has to make decisions on how to spend the allocated resources. There is a massive difference in the athletic department budget football spend and the NIL pot of gold. They are two totally different buckets. We are near the top in the first bucket and I would bet middle of the SEC pack in the second. There is a reason we have missed on many of our portal targets and it's we are routinely getting outbid. We have also made the decision as an athletic department to be good in every sport. I personally like that strategy as I feel like it's a fair and balanced approach to support all of our athletes, but can understand how others disagree. Some schools are only prioritizing one or two sports to compete at a very high level in just those sports. Numerous schools have way more alumni and wealth in their alumni base than Tennessee. Just use the Google machine and see some of the alumni associations of schools like Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, Texas A & M, Oregon, etc and tell me we have more money to spend than anybody. It's just not grounded in reality. I hope Heupel really likes it at Tennessee and choses to stay for many years. I also understand that his likelihood of actually winning a championship are remote as numerous teams have advantages over him. It also takes some fortunate breaks and flat out luck to win one. I also hope he makes some adjustments in the off season on his staff to address some of the apparent weaknesses. TLDR. Go Vols.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Exiled and Jackcrevol
#63,998
#63,998
jave36 said:
You have a super small sample size of time without restrictions and sanctions hanging over the program to be making trajectory pronouncements. It's like saying "his first mile of the marathon was 7 minutes, but the 2nd mile was 7:15 so we're on a bad trajectory to do well in this marathon."

You're usually reasonable, but expecting a bottom dwelling program for 20 years to become perennial top 1/3 in 5 years with all the penalties and sanctions is pretty unreasonable.

Most everyone outside the program is floored the Heupel turned things around so quickly, but you're saying he has t achieved perennial top third in the conference fast enough? Do you not remember how bad we were and for how long? Saban is about the only one who's ever done it quicker than Heupel. Dozens if not hundreds of other coaches have failed to bring SEC programs out of the dumps at all like Heupel has, let alone so quickly.

Take the long view, don't make trajectory calculations on a small sample size, and keep in perspective how many coaches have been unable to bring an SEC program out of the dumps to where Heupel has gotten us. If we're still not perennial top third in another 5 years, then I think it'd be appropriate to question our trajectory.
Click to expand...
So next year is most likely another 7-9 win year, that puts us inn year 7. So we looking at another 3,4, 7, 10 years? Also, it's extremely difficult to maintain average. You are either rising or falling.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement





Back
Top