All things STOCKS

#17,876
#17,876
mrorange211 said:
We should all note that the 10Y is up prior to where it was before Liberation Day.
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And also note it’s below where it was a month before the great debate and in the weeks before Inauguration Day. It’s been in about a 1% range over the last year. Not much to see here IMO. But I remember it was once at almost 16%, so 3.5% - 4.5% doesn’t phase me.
 
#17,877
#17,877
Thunder Good-Oil said:
And also note it’s below where it was a month before the great debate and in the weeks before Inauguration Day. It’s been in about a 1% range over the last year. Not much to see here IMO. But I remember it was once at almost 16%, so 3.5% - 4.5% doesn’t phase me.
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In the early 80’s the government was offering guaranteed student loans and the interest didn’t start until your 4 years were up. Local bank was offering 15% cd’s. Invested those loans each year then cashed out and paid off the student loans before the interest started. Was a nice nest egg to start adult life.
 
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#17,878
#17,878
walkenvol said:
In the early 80’s the government was offering guaranteed student loans and the interest didn’t start until your 4 years were up. Local bank was offering 15% cd’s. Invested those loans each year then cashed out and paid off the student loans before the interest started. Was a nice nest egg to start adult life.
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Good to have avoided CDs from the Butcher brothers’ Southern Industrial Banking Corporation. Which wasn’t a bank at all.

moneyweek.com

Great frauds in history: the Butcher brothers' corrupt banking empire

Jacob and CH Butcher plundered their $3bn banking empire, leaving investors short of almost $400m.
moneyweek.com moneyweek.com
 
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#17,879
#17,879
#17,880
#17,880
After Hours DJIA/SP500/NAS100 all down.
-0.24%
-0.38%
-0.48%

Not looking like the Monday advance will have a 2nd day, but…

CPI will be released at 8:30am.

Markets could end up repeating Monday or even give it all back. Hopefully some benign CPI reports. I’ll be happy just keeping Monday and Tuesday being flat.
 
#17,882
#17,882
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Good to have avoided CDs from the Butcher brothers’ Southern Industrial Banking Corporation. Which wasn’t a bank at all.

moneyweek.com

Great frauds in history: the Butcher brothers' corrupt banking empire

Jacob and CH Butcher plundered their $3bn banking empire, leaving investors short of almost $400m.
moneyweek.com moneyweek.com
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walkenvol said:
Cool story - one of the Butcher’s daughters married a coworker / friend. Very nice young lady
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My sister used to babysit for Jake's kids when she was in high school. His home was a mansion on Center Hill Lake. At least it seemed like a mansion to me in the 60s.
I bought a Lexus at a dealership in Chattanooga and Jake was the business manager.
He died in 2021.
 
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#17,884
#17,884
Go aeiou said:
My sister used to babysit for Jake when she was in high school. His home was a mansion on Center Hill Lake. At least it seemed like a mansion to me in the 60s.
I bought a Lexus at a dealership. in Chattanooga and Jake was the business manager.
He died in 2021.
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I thought that it had been about 10-15 years since Jake had died. I think that CH died about 20 or 30 years ago. Fell and hit his head maybe. CH’s house was on a dead end on Black Oak Ridge right at the top of the hill between Fountain City and Halls. Jake had Whirlwind mansion on Melton Hill Lake near Clinton.

Both wives divorced them. I wonder who ended up with the missing money and how much was never recovered. The FDIC pretty much set up shop in Knoxville for a couple of years 40 years ago. SIBC wasn’t a bank and those deposits were not insured.
 
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#17,886
#17,886
Jake’s widow Sonya is still alive. I didn’t realize that. I doubt that she’s hurting for money.

CH died from a “massive stroke” in 2002.

Shirley Butcher died in 2016. She served prison time for helping CH hide assets.

The 2 tall glass buildings on Gay Street were built by the Butcher brothers. Jake built the rectangular one as the headquarters of United American Bank which became First TN Bank and renamed First Horizon Bank. CH’s building across the street from Jake’s was C & C Bank. They might have pioneered Saturday banking in Knoxville. I forget which bank took over C & C. Maybe Valley or First American. It might have ultimately become part of what is now Region’s.
 
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#17,888
#17,888
If today’s gains hold, I’ll have gotten back all of my unrealized losses triggered by the Trump Tariffs. I didn’t sell, but didn’t make big buys either. Made enough trading a few options to pay for lunch for a while and beer money (if I was a drinker).
 
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#17,892
#17,892
mrorange211 said:
UNH is a buy at some point, but it may be like BA atp. No way to tell when.
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Yeah, BA is a good comp. Technically it isn't all that far away from a potential support area around 290 (the top end of a trading range it was stuck in from late 2018 until late 2020).

There is an allure to buying right at the bottom but with the broader equity market appearing to have recovered (it's massively extended at the moment and will pull back, but it has gotten well above prior resistance levels and the 50 and 200 DMAs), it is probably better to look more to what was working before the tariff selloff than trying to catch falling knives. Those MAs are flattening out and turning higher again, and it is an area we might pull back to and find support.

If the market itself is a falling knife, that is one thing, but I think it is folly to buy poorly-acting stocks when the broader market acts good.
 
#17,893
#17,893
05_never_again said:
(it's massively extended at the moment and will pull back, but it has gotten well above prior resistance levels and the 50 and 200 DMAs)
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I do not want to be fully invested in this market. I'm picking my spots.

05_never_again said:
Those MAs are flattening out and turning higher again, and it is an area we might pull back to and find support.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree with an earlier post of your where we head back to 5400 before we base again.
 
#17,894
#17,894
Go aeiou said:
I have a lot of SMCI. haven't looked, but I think I'm at about break even today.
Piled on NVDA under $100. Long term hold.
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I briefly considered selling some SMCI calls with the strike above my basis. But after looking at the $17 to $101 52 week range I’m going to hold off a bit. Analysts are getting more positive. I wonder if the short firm promoting the crash has covered their position yet.

There will be a lot of selling pressure from retail buyers that jump off as they get back to even. Shares are around $38.90 right now. I’d like to get around $50, but if it gets there quickly maybe hold off for $60, $70, $75, or so. I’m not a long term believer since they can’t seem to manage their accounting very well. It’s a lot simpler than managing manufacturing.
 
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#17,895
#17,895
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I briefly considered selling some SMCI calls with the strike above my basis. But after looking at the $17 to $101 52 week range I’m going to hold off a bit. Analysts are getting more positive. I wonder if the short firm promoting the crash has covered their position yet.

There will be a lot of selling pressure from retail buyers that jump off as they get back to even. Shares are around $38.90 right now. I’d like to get around $50, but if it gets there quickly maybe hold off for $60, $70, $75, or so. I’m not a long term believer since they can’t seem to manage their accounting very well. It’s a lot simpler than managing manufacturing.
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SMCI's margins are atrocious too.
 
#17,896
#17,896
Vol423 said:
SMCI's margins are atrocious too.
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The huge revenue growth is what drove up the stock price. Riding the AI wave. Margins are way off, but at least they’re profitable. Maybe their margins were damaged from building out capacity. And hopefully if that’s behind it, it wasn’t in China. 2024 revenue more than doubled. They have a 7/1-6/30 fiscal year BTW.

The demand, with only Dell as viable competition, probably is how they weathered the 2024 **** storm that was triggered by the really bad accounting performance. It’s never a good look when accounting is garnering headlines.
 
#17,897
#17,897
UNH has more difficulty ahead once the administration pivots from cease fires and tariffs to a more domestic agenda. DJT fired one over the bow of Big Pharma a day or two ago.

The pharmacy benefits managers seem to be extremely vulnerable. CVS, UNH, and Cigna have 80% of the PBM business.

JNJ might be the best integrated healthcare company once again after struggling with their talc exposure for a long time.
 
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