All things STOCKS

#19,676
#19,676
05_never_again said:
I own CVX and XOM so I'm not complaining, but I imagine this pop will fade away since very much is still up in the air and any infrastructure build-out in Venezuela is a longer-term story.
Click to expand...

Venezuela would be a minor event for the big integrated oil companies. But the smaller oil service equities and infrastructure builders should be signing huge deals quickly and ought to see solid runs sooner. But a lot of that is already taking off now.

The Louisiana refineries and the companies that will be taking ship loads there are primed as well.

The big oil stocks might be more tied to crude prices. It doesn’t seem like the current events should cause prices to fall. The cost of a barrel can’t go too low before it’s not worth opening up the spigot.
 
#19,677
#19,677
AI:

Major companies owning Louisiana's oil refineries include Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil, PBF Energy, Shell, and Delek US, operating large facilities like Garyville (Marathon), Baton Rouge (ExxonMobil), Chalmette (PBF), Norco (Shell), and Krotz Springs (Delek), which together process a significant portion of the nation's crude oil.
Here's a breakdown of key refineries and their owners:
Marathon Petroleum: Owns the large Garyville Refinery.
ExxonMobil: Operates the historic Baton Rouge Refinery.
PBF Energy: Owns the Chalmette Refinery (a former ExxonMobil/PDVSA joint venture).
Shell: Operates the Norco refinery, a major petrochemical site.
Delek US: Owns the refinery in Krotz Springs.
Phillips 66: Operates the Alliance Refinery.
Calumet Lubricants: Operates the Cotton Valley Refinery.
Louisiana hosts numerous refineries, with its 15 facilities processing roughly one-sixth of U.S. crude, making it a critical refining hub.
 
#19,678
#19,678
AI (Venezuelan oil transport):

Companies involved in transporting Venezuelan oil include major players like Chevron, which has ongoing operations under a waiver, and various smaller tankers (some sanctioned) moving crude, while others like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, and SLB are positioned to re-enter or expand operations, especially with recent US political shifts easing restrictions for some entities. The situation is dynamic, with some firms benefiting from eased sanctions, while others await clearer legal frameworks, though some tanker companies have faced US sanctions for facilitating oil shipments.
Key Players & Their Roles
Chevron: The primary US major currently producing and shipping Venezuelan oil to US refineries under a sanctions waiver, shipping around 150,000 barrels a day.
US Refiners (Marathon, Phillips 66, Valero, PBF): Shares surged as they stand to benefit from increased Venezuelan crude supply.
ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, SLB (Schlumberger): These firms are closely watching the situation, with potential to invest heavily in rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure if conditions are right.
Tanker Companies: Various, often smaller, maritime firms transport the oil, though some, like Afranav Maritime and Adamant Maritime, have faced US sanctions.
Factors Influencing Transport
US Sanctions: Recent US actions, including sanctions relief for Chevron and potential easing for others, are reshaping who can transport the oil.
Political Stability: Continued investment hinges on a stable legal and operational environment, with major players like ConocoPhillips and Exxon waiting for clearer frameworks.
Infrastructure: Venezuela's oil infrastructure needs significant investment, requiring major oil companies to commit billions.
 
#19,679
#19,679
Those companies that were harmed when their investments were seized will likely benefit. But as big as they are, it won’t be too terribly impactful.

AI:
Venezuela "kicked out" major oil companies, primarily ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, in 2007 after they refused to cede majority control of their projects to the state-owned PDVSA, leading to asset expropriation under Hugo Chávez, though other firms like Chevron, BP, and Total stayed by agreeing to new terms.

Key Companies Forced Out
ExxonMobil (U.S.): Refused to restructure its operations to give PDVSA majority control.
ConocoPhillips (U.S.): Also rejected the majority state ownership requirement, resulting in its assets being seized.

The Nationalization Drive
Context: After nationalizing the industry in the 1970s, Venezuela under Chávez opened up to foreign investment but then mandated that PDVSA must have majority ownership (over 60%) in all projects.

The Choice: Companies had to choose between accepting the new terms or leaving.
Those Who Stayed: Chevron, BP, Total (France), Statoil (Norway), and Russia's Rosneft agreed to the terms and remained as minority partners.

Aftermath
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips took Venezuela to international arbitration, with tribunals eventually ruling in their favor and ordering compensation, though Venezuela has appealed these decisions.
The departure of expertise and capital from these firms, combined with mismanagement, contributed to the significant decline in Venezuela's oil production despite its massive reserves.
 
#19,682
#19,682
mrorange211 said:
This is a very limited view of economics and the world.
Click to expand...

When there’s state sponsored theft of our companies’ investments and then their dictator profits from the deals with our adversaries, then we’re justified to respond. Any one issue and maybe diplomatic intervention could have been enough. But that former bus driver running Venezuela needed to go. And it shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Wasn’t it Biden that indicted him?
 
#19,683
#19,683
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Venezuela would be a minor event for the big integrated oil companies. But the smaller oil service equities and infrastructure builders should be signing huge deals quickly and ought to see solid runs sooner. But a lot of that is already taking off now.

The Louisiana refineries and the companies that will be taking ship loads there are primed as well.

The big oil stocks might be more tied to crude prices. It doesn’t seem like the current events should cause prices to fall. The cost of a barrel can’t go too low before it’s not worth opening up the spigot.
Click to expand...
CVX is jumping more than the others because of those Guyana assets they acquired with the Hess acquisition. There had been concerns about access to those. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems presumptuous to assume that they're gonna have easy access to those just because Maduro himself is gone.
 
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#19,684
#19,684
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Odd that BP and OXY are off 3% and 4% while XOM is up a percent.

I wonder if Buffett’s replacement will ditch Warren’s OXY idea.
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That was one where I never concurred with Warren.

Actually, there are several I didn't concur with over the last decade. But, he has more $$$$$ than me. Win for Warren.

Still not sold on the oil stuff. Might be something there. Too risky for my limited level of oil intelligence.
 
#19,685
#19,685
Jax_Vol said:
That was one where I never concurred with Warren.

Actually, there are several I didn't concur with over the last decade. But, he has more $$$$$ than me. Win for Warren.

Still not sold on the oil stuff. Might be something there. Too risky for my limited level of oil intelligence.
Click to expand...
The supply/demand fundamentals for higher oil prices aren't great and haven't been for a few years now, but IMO that's fully priced in to these stocks and has been for some time. I don't know if y'all look at a lot of charts here, but lots of energy names look interesting on a technical basis and close to breakouts (XLE, XOM, FANG, etc.).

The sector overall is just under-owned. At the moment energy is just 3% of the S&P's market cap, which is well below historical norms and also below the % of S&P 500 earnings it generates. There's pretty good upside in those names on mean reversion alone, independent of oil supply/demand issues becoming more bullish. Many of them pay pretty good dividends while you wait too.
 
#19,686
#19,686
Jax_Vol said:
That was one where I never concurred with Warren.

Actually, there are several I didn't concur with over the last decade. But, he has more $$$$$ than me. Win for Warren.

Still not sold on the oil stuff. Might be something there. Too risky for my limited level of oil intelligence.
Click to expand...

I thought that he was attempting to make BRK a major player in oil/energy. Insurance and oil. They’ve really gotten too big for what got him there. His investment universe has been shrinking.
 
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#19,688
#19,688
SMH: Top 10 Holdings (75.71% of Total Assets)
Symbol
Company
% Assets

NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
16.94%

TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
9.50%

AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
9.25%

MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
6.45%

INTC
Intel Corporation
5.90%

AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
5.89%

AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
5.79%

ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
5.67%

LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
5.55%

KLAC
KLA Corporation
4.77%
 
#19,689
#19,689
Quotes (Yahoo Finance) of SMH components:

Add ticker
1D Chart
Day Range
52 Wk Range

KLAC
1,355.70 +81.23 +6.37%
USD 3:19PM EST 894,139 178.505B
1,304.00
1,371.89

551.33
1,371.89

AMAT
283.80 +14.93 +5.55%
USD 3:19PM EST 6.764M 226.119B
276.12
287.74

123.74
287.74

LRCX
194.98 +9.92 +5.36%
USD 3:19PM EST 11.819M 246.002B
190.12
198.36

56.32
198.36

ASML
1,228.05 +64.27 +5.52%
USD 3:19PM EST 2.794M 476.137B
1,211.67
1,237.86

578.51
1,237.86

TSM
324.06 +4.45 +1.39%
USD 3:19PM EST 13.436M 1.681T
323.22
331.25

134.25
331.25

INTC
39.35 -0.03 -0.06%
USD 3:19PM EST 74.648M 187.676B
39.28
42.10

17.67
44.02

NVDA
187.13 -1.73 -0.91%
USD 3:19PM EST 140.175M 4.558T
186.15
193.63

86.62
212.19

AMD
221.13 -2.34 -1.05%
USD 3:19PM EST 24.848M 360.139B
220.53
234.02

76.48
267.08

AVGO
343.80 -3.82 -1.10%
USD 3:19PM EST 22.778M 1.63T
336.50
355.03

138.10
414.61

MU
311.43 -3.99 -1.26%
USD 3:19PM EST 28.873M 350.787B
309.55
325.51

61.54
325.51
 
#19,690
#19,690
Jax_Vol said:
That is my question.

How did Wall St know about the event 16 hours prior to the mission?

I don't watch much television so am perhaps wrong on the timeline..?
Click to expand...
Because Congressional members were making trades ahead of time. Never underestimate the power and fortune created by having intelligence well ahead of time.
 
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#19,693
#19,693
mrorange211 said:
This is a very limited view of economics and the world.
Click to expand...
I'm a no bs kind of guy. Theres right and theres wrong, not that I would apologize for Maduro in any way.

Practically speaking as the world flips to evs, that should create a surplus of oil which would might put the roi of this as less than the cost to acquire the oil. Even though it will serve to guarantee our oil supply, the ultimate political cost could be too high.
 
#19,695
#19,695
05_never_again said:
I don't think Congressional trades alone are enough to move a stock like CVX up a couple percent. Others knew besides them.
Click to expand...
Oh, I know and I'm sure others knew. My comment was mostly tongue in cheek, but I cannot be convinced congress didn't know it was coming and planned their stock trades accordingly. On another note, the Santa Clause rally seems to arrived the past couple of days.
 
#19,696
#19,696
DJIA spitting distance to 50k.

The 2020s Bull Market (2020–2026)

Milestone Closing level Date first achieved
29,551.4221 29,950.44 Nov 16, 2020
30,000 30,046.24 November 24, 2020
30,500 30,606.48 December 31, 2020
31,000 31,041.13 January 7, 2021
31,500 31,522.75 February 16, 2021
32,000 32,297.02 March 10, 2021
32,500 32,778.64 March 12, 2021
33,000 33,015.37 March 17, 2021
33,500 33,527.19 April 5, 2021
34,000 34,035.99 April 15, 2021
34,500 34,548.53 May 6, 2021
35,000 35,061.55 July 23, 2021
35,500 35,515.38 August 13, 2021
36,000 36,052.63 November 2, 2021
36,500 36,585.06 January 3, 2022
37,000 37,090.24 December 13, 2023
37,500 37,557.92 December 19, 2023
38,000 38,001.81 January 22, 2024
38,500 38,519.84 February 1, 2024
39,000 39,069.11 February 22, 2024
39,500 39,512.13 March 20, 2024
40,000 40,003.59 May 17, 2024
40,500 40,954.48 July 16, 2024
41,000 41,198.08 July 17, 2024
41,500 41,563.08 August 30, 2024
42,000 42,025.19 September 19, 2024
42,500 42,512.00 October 9, 2024
43,000 43,065.22 October 14, 2024
43,500 43,729.93 November 6, 2024
44,000 44,293.13 November 11, 2024
44,500 44,736.57 November 25, 2024
45,000 45,014.04 December 4, 2024
45,500 45,631.74 August 22, 2025
46,000 46,108.00 September 11, 2025
46,500 46,519.72 October 2, 2025
47,000 47,207.12 October 24, 2025
47,500 47,544.59 October 27, 2025
48,000 48,254.82 November 12, 2025
48,500 48,704.01 December 11, 2025
49,000 49,462.08 January 6, 2026
 
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#19,699
#19,699
Need your opinion/advice

There are some smart people and in here and I am wondering what you all would do if you had 200K available to do something with:

- Buy real estate
- Invest
- Start a business
- Private equity
- Pay down mortgage debt to reduce total interest owed

I am leaning towards the paying down some mortgage debt - here are the scenarios ... would love all of your opinions:

I have $200,000+ available that I would like to put to use on some existing mortgages that I currently have. I ran some payoff scenarios to compare total interest savings and time to payoff, and I’d really value your point of view on which tradeoffs make the most sense.

Current loans I am considering (I have two other properties that I can't do anything with):

  • Lakeview (Florida): Balance $425,445.54 at 6.9%, payment $2,862/mo (principal & interest), about 29 years remaining
  • Rocket (CO): Balance $217,751.99 at 1.9%, payment $2,033.32/mo (principal & interest), about 9 years 10 months remaining
Baseline (no lump sum applied):

  • Estimated future interest across both loans: ~$558,668
Options I modeled with the $218,000k (the amount to payoff Rocket in full)

Option A — Apply the full $218k to the Lakeview loan (6.9%) and keep paying $2,862/mo

  • Estimated total future interest (both loans): ~$82,743
  • Estimated interest saved vs baseline: ~$475,925
  • Lakeview paid off in roughly ~7 years 11 months
  • Rocket continues as-is and finishes in ~9 years 10 months (this becomes the “last loan standing”)
Why it stands out: Highest rate first = biggest guaranteed interest reduction.

Option A2 — Apply $218k to Lakeview and recast to lower the required payment

  • Estimated recast required payment: ~$1,377/mo (instead of $2,862)
  • Estimated total future interest (both loans): ~$296,869
  • Estimated interest saved vs baseline: ~$261,799
Why it’s attractive: Big drop in required payment (more flexibility), but less interest savings than Option A.

Option A3 — Recast Lakeview, but still pay $2,862/mo

  • Required payment would drop to ~$1,377, but I’d keep paying $2,862
  • That’s effectively ~$1,485/mo extra principal vs the required payment
  • Result: payoff speed and interest savings are basically the same as Option A, but with lower required payment if I ever needed to throttle back
Why it’s compelling: It’s a “have the flexibility, keep the payoff speed” approach.

Option B — Pay off Rocket (1.9%) completely

  • Estimated interest saved vs baseline: ~$22,508
  • Frees up $2,033/mo immediately
Why it’s a candidate: Cash-flow/peace-of-mind, but mathematically weak on interest saved because the rate is so low.

Option B2 — Pay off Rocket, then roll that $2,033/mo into Lakeview as extra payment

  • Estimated total future interest: ~$165,651
  • Estimated interest saved vs baseline: ~$393,017
  • Lakeview paid off in roughly ~10 years 1 month
Why it works: Still strong, but less efficient than putting the lump sum straight into the 6.9% loan first, but this gives cash flexibility that the first options doesn’t.

Would one of these scenarios be better or should I just consider leaving these and doing something else???

If you made this this far, thanks for reading :)
 
#19,700
#19,700
Versant (VSNT) was spun out of Comcast this week. Initially it traded as high as $59. It was $31.92 earlier today.

What scares me the most is that the Roberts family owns something like 1% of VSNT but has about 33% of the voting control.

CNBC, MS NOW (MSNBC), USA, Oxygen, E!, Golf, SYFY, and digital channels Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, SportsEngine.

This bolsters Paramout’s claim that Warner Brothers Discover Global Networks is worth closer to $1 than WBD’s claim of $4.

Competing bids for WBD:

Paramount $30 cash/share.

NFLX: split WBD into 2 companies… (1) WBD Global Networks and (2) WBD Studios and Streaming. Netflix and the WBD board have approved that shareholders will receive shares in WBD GN before the sale plus cash and NFLX shares worth $27.75 (cash $23.25 and $4.50 in NFLX common shares.

The WBD CEO is one of the most overpaid executives of any public company. He’s pushing for the Netflix deal to go through so that he will get the job of running the NFLX studio division (as well as receiving hundreds of millions of dollars).
 
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