All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yes, had an "as expected" experience with revocable.

Guess I can ask Google, but when/why would you want an irrevocable?

Irrevocable trusts shield assets from creditors and the government in certain situations. Nursing home/long term care providers at the end of life for one. Assets not shielded inside of an irrevocable trust wouldn’t be available for those seeking reimbursement at death. Also if applying for government benefits, they can be excluded in some situations. Possibly to avoid the Medicare IRMAA.

But there are administrative costs, loss of control over investment decisions, and income taxes will still be taken by the IRS. Also, they can’t be established late just to get ahead of creditors.

I have the same question about revocable trusts. Other than estate planning and dividing up assets without screwing around with probate, why bother? Especially if there aren’t spend thrift beneficiaries or special needs beneficiaries that need to be protected from themselves and others. They’re kind of an alternative to some aspects of a Will.

They do keep finances private instead of being publicly viewable records.

Also, with estates are settled, assets distributed and closed. Trusts can exist for generations and provide benefits for decades or even centuries to descendants.

I’m still learning about trusts and I’m far from an expert.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Back thirty years ago, 2% difference was the magic number preached for when it is time to refinance.

Sometimes companies would try to trick you into that range, by making the refinancing fee outrageous. I'm out of loop, but if they are offering a 1.5% drop with $19k fee, guessing that is a variation of the ole hustle.

Somewhat knowing where the 30-year rates stand right now (6.5-7% range), I don't think you want to refinance yet.

If you don't mind sharing, how did you get a 1.9% loan? I could utilize a whole boatload of that $.

A 1.9% loan is why some might have the $19k closing costs. The loan originators and purchasers are planning on the typical time of staying in a home of 7-10 years. The 1.9% gets a lot higher and less attractive to the borrower if a large variable is the up front costs. Today’s generations might not have nearly as many staying in their homes for 30 years.

 

[ndubvols]

No way you pay off the 1.9%. You won’t be able to get 200k at that rate again in your lifetime. Would be better off throwing the 200k into some low risk investment and make more than the 2% interest, plus you’d still have 200k liquid.

I’d probably pay down the higher interest loan or refi to a lower rate and add to the down payment.

 

[mrorange211]

Tariff ruling today. Hold on to your butts.

UPDATE: ruling delayed.

 

[05_never_again]

Tariff ruling today. Hold on to your butts.

UPDATE: ruling delayed.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how to interpret the ruling, whatever it is. The majority view (small majority) seems to be saying that a ruling declaring the tariffs unconstitutional would be bad. The tariffs are the reason we had a 20% drawdown in 34 trading sessions last year, so I don't really follow. The consensus view now, even among people who opposed the tariffs, seems to be that they aren't as inflationary as feared. Maybe that's true, but they're still inflationary (or potentially inflationary).

If the market sells off in response, isn't it a buy regardless if they are unconstitutional or not? The tariffs went through (not at the levels proposed on Liberation Day, which the market was telegraphing the whole time) and the markets eventually shrugged them off. If you bought the S&P at the worst possible time (Feb 19 before the tariff drawdown) and held through today, you're up 13%. If they're removed altogether, isn't that bullish?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

We should be moving on from the tariffs shock. They are mostly one time hits anyway.

The courts don’t need to keep revisiting, but activist judges and politicizing the the judiciary branch seems to be strategy for some. Keeping them in the headlines even if they’re nothing burgers.

BTW. Ho. Ho. Ho. I’m leaving milk and cookies out for the big guy. I hope the amazing start to 2026 holds.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

We should be moving on from the tariffs shock. They are mostly one time hits anyway.

The courts don’t need to keep revisiting, but activist judges and politicizing the judiciary branch seems to be strategy for some. Keeping them in the headlines even if they’re nothing burgers.

BTW. Ho. Ho. Ho. I’m leaving milk and cookies out for the big guy. I hope the amazing start to 2026 holds.

 

[mrorange211]

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how to interpret the ruling, whatever it is. The majority view (small majority) seems to be saying that a ruling declaring the tariffs unconstitutional would be bad. The tariffs are the reason we had a 20% drawdown in 34 trading sessions last year, so I don't really follow. The consensus view now, even among people who opposed the tariffs, seems to be that they aren't as inflationary as feared. Maybe that's true, but they're still inflationary (or potentially inflationary).

If the market sells off in response, isn't it a buy regardless if they are unconstitutional or not? The tariffs went through (not at the levels proposed on Liberation Day, which the market was telegraphing the whole time) and the markets eventually shrugged them off. If you bought the S&P at the worst possible time (Feb 19 before the tariff drawdown) and held through today, you're up 13%. If they're removed altogether, isn't that bullish?

One problem I the paying back of the tariffs. I've seen some talking heads on CNBC worried about what that would do to the 10Y.

 

[mrorange211]

We should be moving on from the tariffs shock. They are mostly one time hits anyway.

The courts don’t need to keep revisiting, but activist judges and politicizing the the judiciary branch seems to be strategy for some. Keeping them in the headlines even if they’re nothing burgers.

BTW. Ho. Ho. Ho. I’m leaving milk and cookies out for the big guy. I hope the amazing start to 2026 holds.

It has been somewhat surprising how little of the tariff effects have been passed down to the consumer. Companies are paying the ulk of the tariffs and only passing down some of the expense at this point.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

One problem I the paying back of the tariffs. I've seen some talking heads on CNBC worried about what that would do to the 10Y.

But what a great way to crash the economy or the equity markets ahead of the midterms.

Activist judges have no business directing policy by forcing refunds.

 

[05_never_again]

One problem I the paying back of the tariffs. I've seen some talking heads on CNBC worried about what that would do to the 10Y.

I imagine that would be a one-time shock as well, if any.

 

[mrorange211]

But what a great way to crash the economy or the equity markets ahead of the midterms.

Activist judges have no business directing policy by forcing refunds.

That's the way you see it, but I believe SCOTUS sees it from a different perspective.

I imagine that would be a one-time shock as well, if any.

A buying opportunity.

 

[05_never_again]

That's the way you see it, but I believe SCOTUS sees it from a different perspective.

A buying opportunity.

I will think of dips in that fashion and remain longer term bullish as long as the general mood (admittedly, which can be difficult to truly determine) remains paranoid about anything and everything that could potentially derail the bull market.

Markets generally don't top when people are worried about what can go wrong. They top when people feel invincible.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

That's the way you see it, but I believe SCOTUS sees it from a different perspective.

A buying opportunity.

Hopefully SCOTUS won’t see themselves as the law makers like many of the lower level activist judges have. Judicial’s lane is to interpret rather than set policy.

Refunding tariffs is a horrible thing to promote. The economy has moved beyond their presence and they seem to be working as desired. With the tariff system in place our POTUS CEO can act quickly and get results. China steals stuff … here’s your additional tariff. Mexico and Central America ignore and enable illegal immigration and here’s your tariff. China cooperates with rare earth materials or buys more tasty agricultural products… here’s your tariff reduction(s).

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

DJIA: 50k.

NASDAQ: 100 25K.

S&P 500: 7k.

GOOGL market cap: $4T.

https://media.tenor.com/lQkXmHoeiH8AAAAM/oliver-twist.gif

 

[SpringBokVol]

Back thirty years ago, 2% difference was the magic number preached for when it is time to refinance.

Sometimes companies would try to trick you into that range, by making the refinancing fee outrageous. I'm out of loop, but if they are offering a 1.5% drop with $19k fee, guessing that is a variation of the ole hustle.

Somewhat knowing where the 30-year rates stand right now (6.5-7% range), I don't think you want to refinance yet.

If you don't mind sharing, how did you get a 1.9% loan? I could utilize a whole boatload of that $.

The 1.9% was a refi into a 15 year about 6 years ago when rate were LOW- just struck at the perfect time

 

[Vol737]

We should be moving on from the tariffs shock. They are mostly one time hits anyway.

The courts don’t need to keep revisiting, but activist judges and politicizing the the judiciary branch seems to be strategy for some. Keeping them in the headlines even if they’re nothing burgers.

BTW. Ho. Ho. Ho. I’m leaving milk and cookies out for the big guy. I hope the amazing start to 2026 holds.

Yep. Good start to the year.

 

[Jax_Vol]

The 1.9% was a refi into a 15 year about 6 years ago when rate were LOW- just struck at the perfect time

Sweet!!!

 

[Vol737]

DJIA: 50k.

NASDAQ: 100 25K.

S&P 500: 7k.

GOOGL market cap: $4T.

https://media.tenor.com/lQkXmHoeiH8AAAAM/oliver-twist.gif

Man, 39K on the Dow seems like last week. The S&P up 2000 pts and the Dow up approximately 11,500....since APRIL. Time in the market, not timing the market. Tried and true.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I sold the 1/9 $200 call contract when the underlying was around $190. So it will be assigned after today’s close at $219. $1,900 per contract of opportunity cost, but selling at the exact top isn’t realistic. Plus it was a nice return for shorting the contract for 1-2 weeks. Never be disappointed when booking a profit they say.

I wasn’t comfortable keeping the shares anyway. I’ve never set foot in a Restoration Hardware store.

Now I’ll look for put contracts to short with the fresh capital. But after equites have launched into 2026 it’s probably best to sit on cash for now. Which securities look like they’re screaming buys ATM? Bitcoin related? SMR?

I might have some INTC shares called away next week. Probably going to be less violent share price movement though compared to the last week or 2 of RH.

 

[kiddiedoc]

I sold the 1/9 $200 call contract when the underlying was around $190. So it will be assigned after today’s close at $219. $1,900 per contract of opportunity cost, but selling at the exact top isn’t realistic. Plus it was a nice return for shorting the contract for 1-2 weeks. Never be disappointed when booking a profit they say.

I wasn’t comfortable keeping the shares anyway. I’ve never set foot in a Restoration Hardware store.

Now I’ll look for put contracts to short with the fresh capital. But after equites have launched into 2026 it’s probably best to sit on cash for now. Which securities look like they’re screaming buys ATM? Bitcoin related? SMR?

I might have some INTC shares called away next week. Probably going to be less violent share price movement though compared to the last week or 2 of RH.

I unloaded some old Intel baggage today after it finally got back to only a 2% loss. Good riddance.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I unloaded some old Intel baggage today after it finally got back to only a 2% loss. Good riddance.

It’s seemed like they’d have very promising news periodically and the stock would fail to respond to any of it.

I shorted $51 1/23/2026 covered calls. There’s a good chance that the contracts will simply expire with shares closing at $45.55 today. Those contracts are still $1.10 so anybody still long the shares are, if my math and logic is correct, can guarantee themselves a 2.4% 2 week return by selling that contract with the possibility of another 12%.

I’m tempted to do naked shorts on the options, but then INTC probably shoots to $60 or higher.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It’s funny that the 4 horsemen stocks of the NASDAQ 25 years ago were MSFT, INTC, CSCO, and DELL. At least they’re still open for business.

Today we have the MAG 7 or 8. AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, and META. A couple of those didn’t exist or weren't in the public equities markets. Broadcom (AVGO) and Netflix (NFLX) are in the running as a MAG stock.

When the 4 horseman were dominating the tech landscape Novell was right on their heals as another and they owned the networking/LAN space (with Cisco). Now it’s difficult to even find Novell. A business in a subsidiary of some other company IIRC.

APPL was an obscure PC alternative. Mostly used by creative people while Microsoft/DOS was doing the administration work with about a 90% market share. Amazon dot com was an online bookstore similar to pets dot com. Dell came out as the winner of Dell v Gateway v Northgate. Even though IBM invented the platform, they were a small bit player.

Other big tech names in the scrap pile of public companies (maybe not all public) that were once PC giants: Yahoo. AOL. Compaq. Hewlett-Packard. VisCalc. Lotus. Tandy. Commodore. Netscape. Borland. APC (American Power Corporation). Compuware. Hundreds or thousands of them.

Instead of Google there was Lycos, Excite, Infoseek, and Yahoo! with AltaVista maybe being the best but without having bought access to the launch page for search. Ask Jeeves was in the mix as well.