MarcoVol
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- Oct 3, 2019
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So you see:8 wins next year isnt good.
As a pessimist I see 9 wins on the schedule, and steal one of the big 3 and you hit 10.
We really need a 10 win season next year or recruiting is gonna suck.
Florida is at home, should be a win.So you see:
UF
UK
Arky
Nc St
Miss St
as a 100% shoe-in, cumulatively? Even if we're 2 TD favorites vs every team on average, odds are we'll drop one of 5.
It seems like this is the part of the schedule people ignore and yet you see it almost every season. Have to take them cumulatively, not just >50% equals a sure win.
If we lose to Arkansas or MS ST next season, then we’re going to have a long year. We own Kentucky and it’s at home. UF owns us but we should be better and it’s at home.So you see:
UF
UK
Arky
Nc St
Miss St
as a 100% shoe-in, cumulatively? Even if we're 2 TD favorites vs every team on average, odds are we'll drop one of 5.
It seems like this is the part of the schedule people ignore and yet you see it almost every season. Have to take them cumulatively, not just >50% equals a sure win.
I think if Oregon wins PAC12 they get in over a 1 loss UGA.. assuming your scenario above is Bama wins SEC. When you dig into some advanced stats FPI/SP+/etc, Oregon is ahead in some rankings, efficiencies and ratings..UGA is ahead in some rankings, efficiencies and ratings. FPI actually has Oregon #2, UGA #3. SP+ has UGA #2, Oregon #4. SOS are both terrible, only 3 spots apart.. throw that one out. Plus those rating systems are already opponent adjusted. So it’s very close in all of that so then what does it come down to? Oregon has a championship, UGA doesn’t.I bet it ends up being Michigan Georgia Texas Bama. Washington and fsu lose their title games.