Can Jabari Small be the best running back in the SEC this year?
The premise is that Jabari Small is a dark horse candidate for RB1 in the SEC this year due to how “effective and incendiary” Tennessee’s offense has been under Josh Heupel. Jabari Small is said to benefit from the pace and aggressive playcalling of our offense.
Stats can always be used for tell differing stories. The quality of the opponent has a lot to do with stats among other things so comparisons and rankings most times are never really apples to apples. jmo.
Having said that, I recently read an evaluation of SEC running backs for this year which didn’t really account for strength of schedule and was based primarily on last season’s performance.
It was said that Jabari Small had an OKAY case for being the best running back in the SEC this year. The options were STRONG, OKAY, POOR, and WEAK.
Last year Jabari ranked #5 in the conference for average yards before contact and #4 for percent of his total yards being before contact. I think this is a credit to both the scheme and the offensive line. Football outsiders ranked our offensive line 9th best in the nation last year and 3rd best on standard downs, downs where we remained on schedule. We were not too good running the ball when we got behind schedule (defined as passing downs), ranking #87.
Jabari’s average yards after contact ranked #14 in the conference and his broken tackle percentage ranked #16 out of all ball carriers (RBs & QBs).
He was 4th best in avoiding negative yardage plays. Gumption runs are instances when the ball carrier is hit behind the line of scrimmage and is still able to gain at least one yard on the play. While Jabari seldom got hit behind the line when he did he couldn’t do a lot about it; He ranked #20 in the conference for gumption percentage.
He was 2nd best in the conference for 1D+TD percentage of his plays. He ranked #5 in the conference for TD percentage. His first down percentage ranked 6th best in the conference. His success rate was 3rd best in the conference.
The percentage of Jabari’s runs which gained 0-3 yards was 1st in the conference. This is not a ranking that you really want to win. The percentage of his runs that gained 3-7 yards ranked #14 and the percentage that gained 7-10 ranked #20.
A major strength for Jabari is his Explosive Run Rate. 22% of his rushing attempts topped 10 yards which is 2nd best among all returning RBs in the conference, including incoming transfers. Jabari is described as “a chunk run waiting to happen”. Jabari’s explosive run rate beat the SEC average in every statistical situation. The analyst suggests that Jabari benefits from the pace, versatility, and the downfield passing components of our offense which opens up holes in the defense for him to exploit.
Last year Jabari’s durability was an issue. He ranked #14 in the conference is USE percentage.
It seems to me that if Jabari Small wants to make a STRONG case for being the best RB in the SEC this year he needs to improve his durability and figure out how to do a better job breaking tackles. Not only would being better able to break tackles boost that metric but it would boost most other metrics, especially yards after contact and his median yards per attempt. jmo.
Coach Mack said in the spring that Jabari had in addition to learning more about our offense and studying NFL running backs and how they run the ball this offseason he also added significant body armor and focused a lot on increasing his physicality.
By all available metrics Jabari Small is considered a good SEC running back in comparison to his peers and is named on a number of preseason All-SEC teams and watch lists for this year. If Jabari can improve his durability and can get into the top quadrant of the SEC in broken tackle percentage I think he can go from good to elite, especially in Heupel’s offense. jmo.