Comparing unit efficiency rankings from Football Outsiders for the past 7 years and projecting 2022 based on Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings.
Blue team is the SEC West winner. Red Team is the SEC East winner.
McElwain at Florida in 2015 & 16 went to the SEC Championship game without an offense, ironic since he was supposed to be an offensive guru.
2020 is an odd year since it was an all SEC schedule. Hypothetically, we may have won 7 games that year if we’d had our typical cupcakes.
If we could pair a top 25 defense with our offense I’d tend to think we have a good shot at competing with anybody. It’s all relative though. The SEC dominates the nation in top defenses. Twice in the last 7 years we’ve had a top 25 defense (2015 & 2019) and it still finished in the bottom half of the conference, for defense. smh.
We’re expected to have the 2nd best offense (on paper) in the conference this year according to Bill Connelly, at least for now. We’re supposedly getting an OT, WR, RB, DL, LB, & DB from the portal here in the next several days to few weeks. Depending on who we get and who everybody else gets that could potentially bump us up a bit more for our offense but potentially moreso for our defense, which is what we really need. jmo.
I think we can win 7-9 games even if we don’t improve much more on defense given our schedule BUT if we could move up more on defense, we could possibly be a legitimate contender. jmo.
I know to get into the top 20 on defense is a big move but the data shows that SEC teams do that all the time. It has a lot to do with returning production, coaching stability, and the emergence of young talent. It also has a lot to do with the strength of the offenses a team has to face. jmo.
Another big factor that favors over-performance is CULTURE. I like ours. jmo.
I slay cobras too though
