You shouldn't put too much into who appears to be leading now... but you probably shouldn't ignore it either.
If Spring ends with someone very obviously a distant 3rd... they'll most likely leave. IMHO, that won't be Hooker. I think his experience alone gives you a guy who can dependably run your O... even if he isn't flashy. His reported weakness in deep throws can be offset by his ability to break the pocket and pick up yardage.
Watch a few go absolutely ballistic if Bailey announces he's leaving. They'll throw stones at the coaches, the other QB's, and everyone else because UT couldn't develop a "5* elite recruit". Two things have always bothered me about Bailey's ranking. One, I have never seen him show top shelf arm strength. Not in HS. Not last year. Not in the practice videos we've seen this year. Not a rag arm or anything like that... just not a "5*" arm. The other thing is that Gilbert was a pretty convenient "easy button". Some times Bailey just seemed to throw in his direction knowing that few HS players could defend him. He may or may not have been as successful in HS without Gilbert... but to me that's an open question mark on his ability.
Basically the same group will celebrate if Maurer leaves.