Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#54,052
#54,052
utvolpj said:
You're not recognizing the gap that would occur within poor communities. The class separation would be extreme
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I recognize that some parents would be totally incapable of teaching their kids anything of substance. That is the product of a failed public school system, and I dont believe that's justification for continuing said system.
 
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#54,053
#54,053
utvolpj said:
You're not recognizing the gap that would occur within poor communities. The class separation would be extreme
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That already exists with public schools.

People value something more when it isnt "given" to them.

It would weed out the ones we're wasting our time on and they can go ahead and learn how to handle a shovel.
 
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#54,054
#54,054
PEPPERJAX said:
Agreed, public school systems should be improved just like everything else. I just don’t believe widespread homeschooling would be beneficial. Sure, it could work for some but not the majority IMO. I had some very influential and bright teachers in Knox Co during my youth and don’t believe their tutelage could have been copied by my parents.
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Good teachers could still teach at private schools. A free market system would weed out the teachers just collecting a paycheck.
 
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#54,056
#54,056
PEPPERJAX said:
Agreed, public school systems should be improved just like everything else. I just don’t believe widespread homeschooling would be beneficial. Sure, it could work for some but not the majority IMO. I had some very influential and bright teachers in Knox Co during my youth and don’t believe their tutelage could have been copied by my parents.
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The government overreach and teachers unions are what needs to be fixed.
 
#54,057
#54,057
#54,059
#54,059
Orange_Vol1321 said:
I just give you a prime example of someone not having Covid. It's all about the Benjamins.


Here's you a question. Why does all diseases look cured the last two months??
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Here is a plot I prepared with the most recent data. As you can see, these "other deaths" didn't disappear. We are clearly seeing a death anomaly, shown here for New York state which has come under some of the sharpest criticism for "over-counting". All deaths are up, including those not assigned to "COVID". Some of that might be the effect described in your linked article citing people not showing up for treatment. The other might be that not enough deaths were assigned to COVID. It'll take a lot of analysis to later to figure that out.


1589308579361.png


I show three 4-week periods (think of them as essentially February, March, and April - but they don't exactly line up that way on the calendar). Week 6-9 is 2/2 - 2/29, then 3/1 - 3/28, and then 3/29 - 4/25.
 
#54,060
#54,060
Pepe_Silvia said:
I recognize that some parents would be totally incapable of teaching their kids anything of substance. That is the product of a failed public school system, and I dont believe that's justification for continuing said system.
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I was great at math in high school but doubt I could teach calculus to a college level like I received. I can't teach my child a foreign language or AP physics. None of that has anything to do with the education I received at a very good public school
 
#54,062
#54,062
allvol123 said:
That already exists with public schools.

People value something more when it isnt "given" to them.

It would weed out the ones we're wasting our time on and they can go ahead and learn how to handle a shovel.
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To an extent it does but this would truly create a ridiculous separation and remove the ability to even recognize who can excel
 
#54,063
#54,063
LouderVol said:
I have seen numbers from less than 1% in Iowa or Idaho, to the 30% in Boston. I just find it odd to have such huge disparities and I lean towards a pessimist in these cases.

Especially with how difficult this thing has been track.
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I think it makes sense. When you consider the exponential growth of viruses early in their spread and the effect of population density, every week makes a huge difference. So if you think about the time it takes to get from 4% to 16% - that's the same as the time to get from 1% to 4% (if you aren't mitigating the spread and there is no push back on rate of infection growth from herd immunity yet - which I don't think there would be yet at these percentages). So let's just assume the real numbers doubled once every week. We noticed the spread because the cities were ahead of the other areas due to their population density and some quirks such as outbreak clusters. But everyone shut down on a similar timetable. The result was very different infected (and now immunized) populations based on how far they were down the epidemic curve by the time we realized it was getting out of control. It takes around 10 days to wind up in the hospital, so you could move from 4% of population with it to over 10% before you even see the people show up at the hospital that were infected when rates were still down around 4%. It blows up in a hurry once you get to decent percentages. That's why you were hearing "we have a few weeks to act". Those weeks really start adding up. If we had shut down just a few weeks earlier in NY, we'd probably be looking at less than 5,000 dead rather than 25,000.
 
#54,064
#54,064
Pepe_Silvia said:
I recognize that some parents would be totally incapable of teaching their kids anything of substance. That is the product of a failed public school system, and I dont believe that's justification for continuing said system.
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Disagree. Teaching is not for everyone. There are many kids that graduate through the public system that never have any intention of teaching. The people that do have the desire go to college for it.
 
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#54,065
#54,065
utvolpj said:
To an extent it does but this would truly create a ridiculous separation and remove the ability to even recognize who can excel
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At some point we have the move the pendulum back towards self sufficiency and responsibility.

We are extremely bent towards dependency and blame someone else.

People need to be forced to choose what they value. Currently we value tv, cell phones, sneakers, etc. No matter your current economic status. This is perpetuated in part because we have said the family unit is not responsible for itself, the community is responsible.
 
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#54,066
#54,066
Fun coupon VOL said:
No joke really? Damn I don’t believe anybody knew that. Are you confused by the video or what everyone is saying is wrong with how they are counting covid deaths?

Reporting the death as Covid even though the death was not caused by covid, inflates the mortality rate.

Guy down the street was ran over by a bus and died instantly. He also had Covid, therefore he is a Covid death. That is stupidity.
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Really? I didn't get that.

Geez. Can you read the context in which he posted that?

He was posting this video as the basis for his claim that all these other deaths are disappearing. Saying that if someone has COVID and dies they are a COVID death does not mean that the others disappear. It isn't proof that they have. Thus my comment and thus why your reply here is misplaced.

And in fact the data show they haven't. Deaths not assigned to COVID are even higher in NY than they normally are (for April), let alone all the COVID deaths.

I've posted the statistical analysis weeks ago for why counting this way doesn't significantly sway the epidemic measurement - and it allows for faster reporting of deaths in order to track the epidemic in something closer to real time.

I have no interest in inflating the numbers. I would love to have the most accurate count possible. I also understand in the heat of the pandemic that this is difficult - because accuracy means being meticulous and thorough, and you don't have time for that DURING an epidemic. Also, it can be a very difficult thing to determine. If you die of a massive stroke as a COVID patient - what did you die of? COVID patients are having strokes. What about heart attack? Well, that's hard to say - if you have COVID and your body is significantly stressed with low oxygen - what caused the heart attack?

If you look at standard rates of these non-COVID deaths occuring in the population and then apply it to the CV+ test population, the deaths that would be from these other non-COVID reasons are a small percentage of the total deaths observed. Due to that, I'm not too concerned about them as being an inflating factor that warps our perception of the virus - and therefore I think that is why the CDC wants the numbers this way...it doesn't warp our read of the virus (though it will inflate them by maybe 1-5%) and it allows us to declare COVID deaths much more quickly and track the virus more easily.
 
#54,067
#54,067
utvolpj said:
I was great at math in high school but doubt I could teach calculus to a college level like I received. I can't teach my child a foreign language or AP physics. None of that has anything to do with the education I received at a very good public school
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I would think interactive learning could be as effective as a teacher. Surely private tutors would still be available to those who need help in certain subjects.
 
#54,071
#54,071
Pepe_Silvia said:
I would think interactive learning could be as effective as a teacher. Surely private tutors would still be available to those who need help in certain subjects.
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We also have one of the most generous wealthy populations on the planet. Systems would be created to allow impoverished to be educated if it is something they really wanted.
 
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#54,073
#54,073
TennTradition said:
Here is a plot I prepared with the most recent data. As you can see, these "other deaths" didn't disappear. We are clearly seeing a death anomaly, shown here for New York state which has come under some of the sharpest criticism for "over-counting". All deaths are up, including those not assigned to "COVID". Some of that might be the effect described in your linked article citing people not showing up for treatment. The other might be that not enough deaths were assigned to COVID. It'll take a lot of analysis to later to figure that out.


View attachment 278961


I show three 4-week periods (think of them as essentially February, March, and April - but they don't exactly line up that way on the calendar). Week 6-9 is 2/2 - 2/29, then 3/1 - 3/28, and then 3/29 - 4/25.
Click to expand...

I believe you recognize the possibility you're just looking at a 3-6 month pull forward of deaths, correct?
 
#54,074
#54,074
Pepe_Silvia said:
I would think interactive learning could be as effective as a teacher. Surely private tutors would still be available to those who need help in certain subjects.
Click to expand...
again creating a huge canyon for those who can't afford it. Not sure you've quite thought this out
 
#54,075
#54,075
utvolpj said:
I was great at math in high school but doubt I could teach calculus to a college level like I received. I can't teach my child a foreign language or AP physics. None of that has anything to do with the education I received at a very good public school
Click to expand...
You should have been greaterer
 
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