Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#53,976
#53,976
TennTradition said:
It was happening before their Lunar New Year celebrations. Wuhan was entering lock down at that time - and with how aggressively they pursued that lockdown, you know the death situation was obvious and compelling. We were nowhere near that kind of obvious and compelling death situation until April.

The numbers of excess deaths per month (that's what the 200k number is, monthly deaths) is much higher than +15k. April will come closer to 60k. We reached +20k for a single week in early April (over 3,000 deaths / day above normal).

The issue is - what does "here longer than we realize" actually mean? To some - that will be confirmation that the respiratory infection they had in November was CV. However, everyone literally has 2-3 people in their extended family that fall into the bucket. Yet - do those same people have anyone in their extended family that have been CV+ in testing in the more recent outbreak? Probably not. So, for all those illnesses back last year to have been CV we would have seen it in excess deaths, IMO.

Also, we know how fast this moved through NY by watching excess deaths - which is a strong signal. I do not think you can have rooted, established community spread in a region and just reach 6% antibody levels after 4-6 months. The virus just doesn't work that way. Could the virus have appeared there 5 months ago? Sure. Could it have been so established that we all know multiple people that had it at that time? My answer to that is no.

I'm not an expert, but I've researched a lot, analyzed a lot of data, etc. With everything I think I know, I can't make that argument work. But all along I've resisted saying that "there is no way it was in the US in Dec.". That just seems silly. Big difference between a case here, and a case there but never rooting in and establishing widespread community transmission (which is what we saw from mid-to-late Feb through today).
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6%? every antibody test I have seen has been 20-30%. Maybe the 6% is just what has actually tested for antibodies?

To me it seems to be consistent for it be to here for a while longer than January/Feb to see it snow ball to where it is.

Like you I dont know anything. But what is being said seems to pass the sniff test.
 
#53,979
#53,979
k-town_king said:
Typical racist thinking.

The guy who said the racist thing isn't the racist. The "real racists" are the ones who got insulted by it and the ones who call it out.

I got ya
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Did you just come here looking for a fight or do you have an actual point? Just curious because it would seem you're intentions are just to stir sh!t and attempt to bait people
 
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#53,983
#53,983
TennTradition said:
A few points.

1) Unless the death certificates are literally made up (as in no person died) or we are euthanizing people and calling it COVID - the excess death data speaks for itself.
2) I've already posted that there is a big difference between "here in December" and the virus was "HERE in December" (meaning established and widespread community transmission)
3) There will be cases like the one you mentioned. So far those are not enough to make the trend in COVID-reported deaths exceed the number of excess deaths being reported. So far, it is trailing it (from the post I offered). This means other deaths are up (which could be true - while car deaths are way down, I could see some other deaths being up from not seeking care) or we are under-reporting COVID deaths.
4) It actually isn't +13,000 from Medicare for patients already on Medicare. It is +15% (maybe 20?) of a number that is already ~13,000 for severe respiratory infections. However, my understanding is that medicare is paying this rate uninsured COVID patients. So it is a +13k to the hospital vs. what they would receive if the patient were uninsured.
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I just give you a prime example of someone not having Covid. It's all about the Benjamins.


Here's you a question. Why does all diseases look cured the last two months??
 
#53,984
#53,984
LouderVol said:
6%? every antibody test I have seen has been 20-30%. Maybe the 6% is just what has actually tested for antibodies?

To me it seems to be consistent for it be to here for a while longer than January/Feb to see it snow ball to where it is.

Like you I dont know anything. But what is being said seems to pass the sniff test.
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I have only seen numbers as high as 20-30% for New York / northeast. The other antibody tests have been more like 5-6%, at least for the ones I've seen. And that is consistent with the death progressions we've seen.

If you have data that contradicts that, I would like to see it. I don't want to walk around with the wrong idea.

Again - I AM NOT saying it wasn't here before Jan/Feb - but the excess death progressions don't indicate that we had sufficient community spread to match the conventional wisdom that these infections family members had last Nov were all CV (for that many people to have had it at that point, we would either have seen it in death data or it would had oddly mutated to become much more deadly - which while possible, the virus evolution studies don't suggest that's the case...and the numbers of transmissions vs. the "original" form of the virus from Wuhan/Europe don't suggest a timeline that goes all the way back to Nov/Dec for separate spread being in the US at that time (that is, the common virus parents of the current virus in the US are very consistent with the common virus parents seen in Wuhan in Dec for some cases or those in Europe in Feb for other cases, and then Wuhan in Dec). I honestly do not know enough about viral evolution to say how sound those "tree ring" studies are. I'm just going with what the scientists are saying on that. Which I usually don't like to do without fully understanding it myself....so I'll add the disclaimer/caveat.
 
#53,985
#53,985
Anyone see this correlation between recent MMR vaccinations and a low incidence of COVID infections and deaths?
 
#53,991
#53,991
vols40 said:
Answer the question. Why was it ever referred to as the China/Wuhan virus?

Come on you racist
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It was refrefeced in that manner by a few media types at the very beginning. True. It was also pointed out to be offensive and is no longer inuse. The only ones using it are people trying to either be racist or shift the handling of the response here from Trump to the place of origin.

Volsfaninva917 said:
Did you just come here looking for a fight or do you have an actual point? Just curious because it would seem you're intentions are just to stir sh!t and attempt to bait people
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Its not my fault facts make some of you uncomfortable.

I have made several points. Some of you are too ignorant or too prejudiced to learn.
 
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#53,992
#53,992
evillawyer said:
Anyone see this correlation between recent MMR vaccinations and a low incidence of COVID infections and deaths?
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No but I’ve wondered if theres a current vaccine Thats keeping it mild to younger people. The younger you are the more recent your vaccine was. I think for most vaccines you need a booster by a certain age and could this be the reason why older people are impacted more? They missed it or the vaccine that’s keeping it mild they don’t have a booster for it?
 
#53,995
#53,995
k-town_king said:
It was refrefeced in that manner by a few media types at the very beginning. True. It was also pointed out to be offensive and is no longer inuse. The only ones using it are people trying to either be racist or shift the handling of the response here from Trump to the place of origin.


Its not my fault facts make some of you uncomfortable.

I have made several points. Some of you are too ignorant or too prejudiced to learn.
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Thanks for confirming that you indeed are racist.
 
#53,996
#53,996
Sandman 423 said:
Did you just post that doctors learn new stuff about this virus daily and change their recommendations based on their new knowledge and then just a couple post down rip the President for changing what he says about the virus daily?
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Yes I did. What was Trump's plan to get PPE? What is Trump's economic plan? What is Trump's testing plan? These plans should be in place and in effect, irregardless of what we learn about the virus.
 
#53,997
#53,997
I've only been able to listen a little, but my take is that the experts, including Fauci, are not opposed to reopening, but they want to see two things in place. First, there should be a distinct drop in cases, which means you are seeing a decreased community spread. Second, you need to have in place ample testing (not promises of testing, actual testing capacity) and sufficient mechanisms for tracing.

The point of both of these is that reopening WILL result in an increase in cases and deaths. But, if you have those other things in place then you can jump on any new cases quickly, identify contacts by trace, and isolate others who may be infected. This way while there is community spread, it is not out of control and unknown.
 
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#53,998
#53,998
Orange_Vol1321 said:
You just ignored the question. Go look them up and you will find out the China flu will be inflated.


Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone?
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Thanks for the article.

Hospital admissions are down. I wonder what percentage of admissions for things like heart attacks come from strenuous activity - that perhaps people aren't getting?

Excess deaths were up - significantly up - in April. A lot more people died than normal. That's fact, per death certificates (and the number is still climbing as CDC processes death certificates). What's interesting is that, at least in NY per the plot below, that isn't just because of "COVID" deaths...."Non-COVID" deaths are also up vs. where they normally are and these COVID deaths are on top of that.

The rise in deaths actually corresponds well with the reported COVID cases. So either hospitals were reporting heart attack deaths as COVID deaths but carefully so in order to just count the extra heart attack deaths over what they would normally see as COVID deaths. Yet they weren't actually seeing their normal number of heart attack patients per this article, which means the coroner would have to be very clever and in counting some of the at-home heart attack deaths as COVID deaths but not too many such that the number of COVID deaths reported would far exceed the number of excess deaths.

Here is a plot for New York. It's a little old (I made it last week) - but as you can see, all these "other deaths" haven't disappeared. At the time I produced this they were actually up - either because they were really up or some CV deaths weren't being assigned to COVID.

So when I say these other deaths haven't disappeared - this plot is why I say that. These "other" deaths are still very much present. I'll try to clean this plot up today. Update it and clean the numbers up a bit. I'll post it and give my thoughts on any changes that look significant to me.New York April Deaths Comparison - updated 20200504.PNG
 
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#54,000
#54,000
k-town_king said:
It was refrefeced in that manner by a few media types at the very beginning. True. It was also pointed out to be offensive and is no longer inuse. The only ones using it are people trying to either be racist or shift the handling of the response here from Trump to the place of origin.


Its not my fault facts make some of you uncomfortable.

I have made several points. Some of you are too ignorant or too prejudiced to learn.
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Is calling Lyme Disease anti-Vermont?

German measles?

Lou Gehrig disease ?

Spanish flu?

Norovirus?

Rocky mountain spotted fever?

West Nile Virus?

Ebola?

Tommy John surgery ?
 
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