TennTradition
Defended.
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I would guess the 50% is the factor they used originally (which led to the high-side predictions i.e. 100k to 240k deaths) while the 90% is what brings their model back in line with the actual data.
The actual data is a hard one to even say as well though. Our total infection numbers (even if you assume a 3 million or so today) are still low as a percentage. So a tremendous amount of the book is yet to be written. But they’ve always been talking about wave 1 with these numbers so getting 90% compliance will get the first wave to peak sooner and change the trajectory from that point forward tremendously for the first wave (social distancing has impact on death numbers prior to peak as well but it’s muted by the effects of having a later and higher peak if you don’t distance).