D4H's 2017 NFL Draft Review (Best Picks, Best Drafts, and Predictions)

[VolsSportsFan]

Well Rodgers was playing back up to a hall of famer his rookie season so no one really had any idea.

Rodgers was also a first round draft pick; so there was a pretty decent idea at least he was going to be good. D4H acting like he was some Tom Brady type story is stupid.

 

[volfanhill]

Rodgers was also a first round draft pick; so there was a pretty decent idea at least he was going to be good. D4H acting like he was some Tom Brady type story is stupid.

Agreed

 

[K-town Vol Fan]

Then there’s no difference. Have the best core in the NFL.

Tyron Smith has missed a lot of games. Their line is noticable worse when he's out. Without him they really only have 2 good OL. Most good teams can say they have 2 good OL. Zeke being out is what killed them. As soon as he was suspended the team just lost their identity. Combine that with aging WRs that cant get open, teams just bracket Beasley and theres nowhere to throw the ball.

As far as Dak, ive seen way too many INTs caused by balls bouncing off of WRs hands and into the defense. Those arent on him.

 

[hndog609]

As far as Dak, ive seen way too many INTs caused by balls bouncing off of WRs hands and into the defense. Those arent on him.

They track everything to the point where I'd almost like to see "on target" passes that result in int's not go into the QB's stats. I don't see it happening but that really does hose the QB's for something they had no real part in.

 

[volfanCLT]

Well Rodgers was playing back up to a hall of famer his rookie season so no one really had any idea.

Dobbs is playing behind Landry Jones so basically the same thing

 

[NashVol11]

Goff also has 700 more yards passing and 7 more passing TDs in said “reduced role”. Imagine if he wasn’t so stifled.

It's not really about the number of throws, as much as being put in a position to succeed because defenses are selling out to stop Gurley.

 

[NashVol11]

That's complete and utter bull**** because I lived in Washington during the fall of 2012 and got to see every single game RG3 played as a rookie. He was not a dink and dunk QB. The Redskins offense was based on sucking in the linebackers with the fake run option so that receivers could open behind them for big plays down the fields. RG3 made a living throwing into completely open spaces down the field behind the linebackers but in front of the safeties.

Watson and O'Brien did something similar. They weren't attcking the middle of the field behind the linebackers but they were using the fake run options to bait the safeties and then throwing over the top of the corners on the outside because Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins were such big play threats on the outside. Its not exactly the same as the RG3 offense but very similar and based on similar concepts.

Neither Watson nor RG3 were doing full field reads. And both were reliant on the fake run options to open up space down the field. We found out pretty quickly that RG3's offense couldn't last long in the NFL. We'll see if this Deshaun Watson offense can.

THE FIFTH DOWN - With Stats in Context, Luck Outdoes Griffin - NYTimes.com

Difficulty of Throws

It's a gross generalization, but Luck plays in a vertical offense while Griffin plays in a horizontal one. Griffin ranks first in completion percentage while Luck ranks 32nd, but that has as much to do with the throws they're asked to make as each quarterback's accuracy. Luck's average pass attempt has traveled 10.2 yards past the line of scrimmage, the longest average pass distance in the league (this was before "Monday Night Football"; Jay Cutler was second at 9.9 entering the game). Griffin averages 7.9 yards downfield per pass attempt, slightly below the league average of 8.2.

And Luck's long average pass distance isn't simply a product of throwing lots of incomplete passes down the field. His average pass distance on completions is 8.6 yards past the line of scrimmage, also highest in the N.F.L. (Cutler was fourth at 8.3 entering Monday night). Griffin's completions come an average of 5.8 yards from the line of scrimmage, well below the league average of 6.5.

Those numbers agree with Brian Burke's data at Advanced NFL Stats, which show that Griffin has thrown only 14 percent of his passes 15-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in the league. Luck has thrown only 11 percent of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, while Griffin is in an offense that has let him throw 44 passes at or behind the line, accounting for 23 percent of his attempts.

For Griffin, 51.4 percent of his yards have come via his receivers after the catch, the fifth-highest mark in the league.

14% of his passes were thrown 15+ yards, while 23% didn't even cross the line of scrimmage. Call it whatever you want.

 

[NashVol11]

You do know this is possible to just look up right?lol:
Robert Griffin 2012 Plays | Pro-Football-Reference.com
As you can CLEARLY see, yes, RGIII had some "deep" throws but some of those are for 16 yards or in that area which is typically a deep out with some YAC. But CLEARLY, the majority of his completions were on shorter throws.

Now, Watson's season was looking a bit similar but he had more of his "deep" completions being beyond 20 yards but we are still only talking about half a season.

Here's that RG3 "deep left" pass for 88 yards:

About a 20 yard throw, which may have been deep for his standards, but nowhere near how it appears on the stat sheet.

 

[hndog609]

THE FIFTH DOWN - With Stats in Context, Luck Outdoes Griffin - NYTimes.com





14% of his passes were thrown 15+ yards, while 23% didn't even cross the line of scrimmage. Call it whatever you want.

Excellent statistical rebuff. :salute:

 

[NashVol11]

Tyron Smith has missed a lot of games. Their line is noticable worse when he's out.

Yes. Replacing Smith with Chaz Green was an absolute disaster. Green gave up a season's worth of sacks to Adrian Clayborn (like 6 or 7) in one game.

 

[butchna]

Tyron Smith has missed a lot of games. Their line is noticable worse when he's out. Without him they really only have 2 good OL. Most good teams can say they have 2 good OL. Zeke being out is what killed them. As soon as he was suspended the team just lost their identity. Combine that with aging WRs that cant get open, teams just bracket Beasley and theres nowhere to throw the ball.

As far as Dak, ive seen way too many INTs caused by balls bouncing off of WRs hands and into the defense. Those arent on him.

Dak is taking on more this season and it shows. You can blame some ints on WR’s, it happens to all QB’s, a majority of Dak’s are poor decisions...such as the groaner pick six to Justin Coleman that effectively killed the season. He’s a franchise QB and he’ll adjust. I actually feel he took that next step but it didn’t match Wentz and Goff in their teams one on ones. I live in DFW so I’ve kept track. Smith misses games every season...part of the package. Ronald Leary’s and Doug Free’s spots were capably filled by Cooper and Collins so the net effect was the performance of the whole team dipped and the Eagles elevated theirs. It’s easy to point to Zeke’s absence, but when he was appealing they struggled even more and they just lost his first game back. Like Garrett but I think they need a new direction.

 

[BIG BOI 23]

Yes. Replacing Smith with Chaz Green was an absolute disaster. Green gave up a season's worth of sacks to Adrian Clayborn (like 6 or 7) in one game.

What was amazing about that was they refused to give him any help that day lol I mean damn nothing could be more
obvious

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Well Rodgers was playing back up to a hall of famer his rookie season so no one really had any idea.

Dobbs is in the exact same situation.

 

[Vols410]

Dobbs is in the exact same situation.

Except that it’s not.

Rodgers was a 1st round pick that the Packers intended to groom into a starter.

Dobbs was a mid-round pick as a stopgap backup for the Steelers, and isn’t even in the clear for that job.

Big difference.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Or it proves losing too many other guys all across the board is too much to overcome when your team has no depth overall. UT lost quality starters at every level of the defense with JRM, Barnett and Sutton and didn't really have enough quality players behind them to make up the difference. As rough as the offense has been this year for UT, the defense has been just as bad and I don't remember Dobbs lining up on that side of the ball.

Losing a couple of WRs and Kamara didn't help either so to say it was all Dobbs is a bit disingenuous

You do know 2 of those 3 guys missed nearly the entire 2016 season. And for as great as Alvin is, he didn't play much at Tennessee. He was either playing behind Hurd or he was injured. Plus it's not like John Kelly was a significant downgrade from Kamara. He was really good early this season.

The major difference between the 2016 Vols and 2017 Vols is Josh Dobbs. PERIOD. Both teams had terrible defenses and were plagued by injuries. The difference was in 2016 we had Josh Dobbs and he single-handedly led Tennessee to a school record for points scores and led the SEC in offensive TDs scored. That is the only reason we fell from 9 wins in 2016 to 4 wins in 2017.

Josh Dobbs was worth 5 wins on his own. That makes him GREAT.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Except that it’s not.

Rodgers was a 1st round pick that the Packers intended to groom into a starter.

Dobbs was a mid-round pick as a stopgap backup for the Steelers, and isn’t even in the clear for that job.

Big difference.

Dak Prescott was a mid-round pick. Same with Russell Wilson. Tom Brady was a late round pick.

Many a great QB were drafted after the 1st round.

 

[TDawg]

Dak Prescott was a mid-round pick. Same with Russell Wilson. Tom Brady was a late round pick.

Many a great QB were drafted after the 1st round.

Except that those guys were starters pretty quick or were second string. Dobbs can't get past Landry Jones

 

[TDawg]

You do know 2 of those 3 guys missed nearly the entire 2016 season. And for as great as Alvin is, he didn't play much at Tennessee. He was either playing behind Hurd or he was injured. Plus it's not like John Kelly was a significant downgrade from Kamara. He was really good early this season.

The major difference between the 2016 Vols and 2017 Vols is Josh Dobbs. PERIOD. Both teams had terrible defenses and were plagued by injuries. The difference was in 2016 we had Josh Dobbs and he single-handedly led Tennessee to a school record for points scores and led the SEC in offensive TDs scored. That is the only reason we fell from 9 wins in 2016 to 4 wins in 2017.

Josh Dobbs was worth 5 wins on his own. That makes him GREAT.

Actually, it still just makes you a fan .. considering UT lost 4 games this year by 18 points or more and gave up 30+ in 6 games, unless Dobbs is playing defense too, hard to see him being worth 5 games this year. That makes him a quarterback.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Except that those guys were starters pretty quick or were second string. Dobbs can't get past Landry Jones

Tom Brady was 24 years old and in his 2nd season before he became a starter and that was only due to injury.

Dak was a 23 year old rookie last year that also only got his shot because of injury.

Dobbs is a 22 year old rookie who hasn't had the guys ahead of him fall off because of injury.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Actually, it still just makes you a fan .. considering UT lost 4 games this year by 18 points or more and gave up 30+ in 6 games, unless Dobbs is playing defense too, hard to see him being worth 5 games this year. That makes him a quarterback.

Tennessee's defense was terrible last year as well. The difference was Dobbs led the offense to a school record for points and led the SEC in offensive TDs scored. So yes he would have won those games that the defense struggled because the same thing happened last year.

 

[LittleCat]

Dak Prescott was a mid-round pick. Same with Russell Wilson. Tom Brady was a late round pick.

Many a great QB were drafted after the 1st round.

I thought you only cared about film. Now you keep citing number and examples to try and "prove" Dobbs' inevietable success. It's undeniable if you watch film that Dobbs was a great college QB. Not the best passer though. NFL will expose you way quicker than playing teams like UK or Vandy.

 

[BIG BOI 23]

Dak Prescott was a mid-round pick. Same with Russell Wilson. Tom Brady was a late round pick.

Many a great QB were drafted after the 1st round.

You’re the only that thinks Dobbs is great like you never seen a halfway decent quarterback that could run before

But you’re the only one that thinks a lot of crazy ****

Btw both Wilson and Prescott were better at throwing the ball

Dobbs never showed he could do that consistently which is pretty important in the nfl

 

[bamawriter]

Tom Brady was 24 years old and in his 2nd season before he became a starter and that was only due to injury.

Dak was a 23 year old rookie last year that also only got his shot because of injury.

Dobbs is a 22 year old rookie who hasn't had the guys ahead of him fall off because of injury.

Brady worked his way up from 2nd to 3rd string his rookie year.

Dobbs has not only failed to unseat Jones for the backup gig, he's been expendable enough to be inactive late in the year.

 

[BeardedVol]

I thought you only cared about film. Now you keep citing number and examples to try and "prove" Dobbs' inevietable success. It's undeniable if you watch film that Dobbs was a great college QB. Not the best passer though. NFL will expose you way quicker than playing teams like UK or Vandy.

The D4H modus operandi, stats are meaningless unless they backup his opinion, or there's nothing on the tape that he can say points to future greatness.

 

[volsarelife1]

If you wanna know how much better my game predictions are now just watch this. Here are the 4 bowl games I'm most confident about:

1. Georgia over Oklahoma
2. USC over Ohio State
3. Washington over Penn State
4. Central Florida over Auburn

And 3 of the 4 winners I picked are underdogs. And my only favorite (Georgia) is barely a favorite over Oklahoma.

These 4 games are my lead pipe locks of bowl season.

Hmm. Bump