We return a ton of starters. We played the meat of our schedule without Sutton and JRM. The biggest loss is with Barnett. It's difficult to plan and cope with the amount of and the significance of our injuries this year. It's hard to point to any other team as an example because there likely aren't any. We return Kelly at RB and gain Ty Chandler (who appears to be the real deal).
I'm not claiming there are unknowns as there are unknowns with teams every year. Given who we return and why we've achieved this year, I don't think it's totally justified to lower expectations.