Oregon will make it to a super. Seems they usually find a way when you think they’re not that good
The west coast baseball era has passed - at least for the time being.
The region and the Pac12 used to dominate the sport. With USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon moving to the Big10; I think those programs will be devastated even further unless the B1G can find a way to keep those teams competitive. The teams moving to the Big12 will maintain - an maybe improve. I HOPE Oregon State find a plan to keep their most high profile program alive and kicking in whatever arrangement they can make with the PAC (WashState) and MtnWest.
The NCAA tries to prop them up with a few regions or national seeds so it's not an all SEC/Big12 show.
Oregon gave up on baseball decades ago until two Oregon State won back-to-back in 2000s. Phil Knight stroked a big check so the Ducks would restart their program and hired George Horton out of retirement from Fullerton and started playing again (after 28 years) in 2009.
Oregon has finished no higher than 2nd in an ever weakening Pag-12. They've hosted regionals three times since 2012 and only won as host once. (2012) They hosted the Super Regional last year after upsetting Vanderbilt in Nashville- (Xavier beat Vanderbilt in loser's bracket and Oregon got to avoid Vandy for the title game.) and because Oral Roberts upset Oklahoma State. They lost the Super to ORU.
Long story short, Oregon has tried - more than most every other program outside the SEC, to buy a title and they can't even win a conference title. They are #54 RPI (up from #64 last week)
They are at 22-8 and the "Computer" expects them to finish 38-15. But get to #34 RPI. That's low 2 or high 3 seed territory
Ducks are 2-3 against RPI Quad 1
7-5 against Quad 2
3-2 Against Quad 3
10-2 against Quad 4
The Pac12 in their swan song is #6 RPI and #4 ELO as UO is 4th place behind AZ, OreState, and USC. They are 4th by RPI and only OreState is above .500 against RPI Q1 at 4-2 and are the high RPI team at #10.
With Oregon State being a likely region host- and likely a national seed- I do not think there will be pressure for the NCAA to "give" Eugene a regional if they are borderline. The Pac-12 will have real trouble getting two regions hosts as the #6 RPI conference. (Behind even the Big10 and SunBelt and barely ahead of the BigEast) However, the other western conferences are tanking even worse.
Pac12 #6 O-State highest at #10
BigWest #12 Irvine is highest at #17
WestCoast #15 San Diego is #42
MtnWest #18 Air Force is #122
WAC #20 Grand Canyon is # 97
If the NCAA wants more than 1 host in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, and UC-Irvine is there, then Oregon will be left out in the cold and would likely be the 2 or 3 seed in Irvine. A team in the 30s or 40 will not host a regional despite the politics. I don't see Oregon jumping over Irvine in RPI or polls.
