Early thoughts on Missouri outcome?

#76
#76
daj2576 said:
I did a little statistical sketch, just for fun.

I reviewed a few stats of both UT and Missouri's against same competition (UGA, UF, SCAR and Kentucky). Here is the breakdown, using averages.

UT gained 447.5 ypg, to Mizzou's 216.5 ypg.
UT gave up 388.75 ypg, to Mizzou's 307.5 ypg.
UT averages scoring 34 points and giving up 26, where Mizzou averages scoring 21 and giving up 20.

Using those numbers, UT's offense has performed, on average, about 1.6x better against the same defenses than Mizzou, while Mizzou's defense has held the same offenses to about 75% of their average production.

I don't really know what any of this means, or if it is even meaningful, but it is fun to look at (for me anyway).
Click to expand...

Good stuff. Amazingly, they give up 80 ypg more than their opponents yet won 3 of the 4 games. I thought the UGa game was an aberration for them but if you took that away, their numbers give a slightly different impression.

Offense: 239 ypg (6td 1int) (+4td from turnover and ST returns)
Defense: 293 ypg allowed (5td 4int)

Bumping their avg score to:
Scored 27.7, allowed 14.3
 
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#78
#78
It is important to note that Mizzou has been a great road team -- they haven't lost an away game this season.

Their mediocre performances against Kentucky and Vandy, their loss to Indiana, and their shellacking by Georgia all came at home.
 
#80
#80
We are good and have been improving--- not trying to be too negative, but the only "weak link" I believe we are still seeing is our average secondary coverage skills. At this point in the season we should be improved and instead I believe we are sliding backwards... several times last night we got burned and our DBs never even turned their heads to track the ball. Mizz is a very fast team that spreads the field and I think we will struggle against this, especially with Randolph out the first half.
 
#81
#81
They are playing for the East crown, so expect that to add to their performance. It'll be closer than some out here are saying.
 
#82
#82
MurphyVol said:
34 points and 500+ yards tonight. You guys are more optimistic than I am. I thing it could go either way, but it won't be easy
Click to expand...

Our defense is wayyyy better than A&M's and they didn't have their best player....Every week Jake tweaks something with Dobbs...he's still missing on some passes...that will get better with each game also...when he starts going deep? Not predicting blowout but I think Mizzou's minds will.
 
#83
#83
volinbama256 said:
We are good and have been improving--- not trying to be too negative, but the only "weak link" I believe we are still seeing is our average secondary coverage skills. At this point in the season we should be improved and instead I believe we are sliding backwards... several times last night we got burned and our DBs never even turned their heads to track the ball. Mizz is a very fast team that spreads the field and I think we will struggle against this, especially with Randolph out the first half.
Click to expand...

We are weakest when we play zone. We are going to play a lot of man against Missouri and make Mauck beat us. He can't and he won't.
 
#84
#84
JAllen18 said:
Missouri has a great Defense, not so good Offense. The O-Line has to step up.
Click to expand...

Mizzou offense is much better when they rely on Murphy and Hansbrough to pound the rock. IMHO, if that's their gameplan then we'll have our hands full.
 
#87
#87
BruiserVol said:
They have certainly looked terrible at times this year, but they are 7-2 tied up with a 7-3 team at the moment. They will be tough. Our schedule is ambitious I know, but you can't overlook them just because theirs wasn't quite as hard.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. I don't know what everyone is looking at but I watched the game with A &M last night and I thought they really looked strong especially Maty the QB.
 
#88
#88
The east championship is in their hands. They have won all road games this year. Not a pushover IMO
 
#89
#89
It'll be tough, but if our defense plays hard we can win it.
 
#90
#90
daj2576 said:
I did a little statistical sketch, just for fun.

I reviewed a few stats of both UT and Missouri's against same competition (UGA, UF, SCAR and Kentucky). Here is the breakdown, using averages.

UT gained 447.5 ypg, to Mizzou's 216.5 ypg.
UT gave up 388.75 ypg, to Mizzou's 307.5 ypg.
UT averages scoring 34 points and giving up 26, where Mizzou averages scoring 21 and giving up 20.

Using those numbers, UT's offense has performed, on average, about 1.6x better against the same defenses than Mizzou, while Mizzou's defense has held the same offenses to about 75% of their average production.

I don't really know what any of this means, or if it is even meaningful, but it is fun to look at (for me anyway).
Click to expand...

I realize that it is not scientific, but coupled with your talent data it seems like further evidence indicating a Vol win.
 
#91
#91
Missouri takes the lead in the 4th but Josh Dobbs runs and passes Tennessee in position for a late fielf goal to win 23-21.
 
#92
#92
thomaseusin said:
Good stuff. Amazingly, they give up 80 ypg more than their opponents yet won 3 of the 4 games. I thought the UGa game was an aberration for them but if you took that away, their numbers give a slightly different impression.

Offense: 239 ypg (6td 1int) (+4td from turnover and ST returns)
Defense: 293 ypg allowed (5td 4int)

Bumping their avg score to:
Scored 27.7, allowed 14.3
Click to expand...

I would say the Florida game would more likely be the outlier. That score was inflated by a series of defense and special teams plays that includes many points their offense doesn't create, IMHO.
 
#93
#93
tm3 said:
I realize that it is not scientific, but coupled with your talent data it seems like further evidence indicating a Vol win.
Click to expand...

I've called this game a win since February when I created this year's talent evals. This season, those numbers have been right for UT 90% of the time. The only under performance this season was against Ole Miss. This game scares me, though. I guess every game these days scares me, it's just the scars left from the past several years.

Note that while my numbers show each of the remaining games is a 70% chance of victory, that means that there is only a 49% chance that we win both.
 
#94
#94
daj2576 said:
I would say the Florida game would more likely be the outlier. That score was inflated by a series of defense and special teams plays that includes many points their offense doesn't create, IMHO.
Click to expand...

Florida and UGA both seem like the outliers, in all honesty.
 
#97
#97
General consensus seems to be that if our early season defense shows up and puts out some great coverage we've got a decent shot at winning.

What other teams this season put up a almost unstoppable running game against our defense?
 
#100
#100
KY's inept tackling was obvious from the stands which allowed us to turn good plays into some really nice gains. I expect nothing of the sort from Mizzou's D. Won't matter. We win.
 
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