JohnnyPayne
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It absolutely is about probability. Because if you knew she was going to make a 3, you would have fouled and made her make 2 FT’s to force overtime (which is stupid). That was about a 10% chance of going in, and we got unlucky. Anyone who knows basketball realizes that.The problem people have is that there was no attempt whatsoever to guard the shooter. It doesn’t matter if she hasn’t made one her whole life. In that situation where you know she has to catch and shoot, it’s asinine not to contest the shot.
As far as probability goes, the probability of her making a contested shot is far less than her making a shot where no one is within eight yards of her.