Win/ Loss comparison

[VolunteerHillbilly]

In your rush to use Bama as an example of why we should toss Butch aside immediately, you may have missed the fact that it took Bama 25 years from end of Bear to start of Nick. Are you so confident we'd find a Saban-quality coach any faster than that? More likely to find a Dubose, Perkins, Curry, Shula, or Franchione.

I'm not willing to toss Butch to the curb until we know for a fact that he can't win championships. Jury's still out on that, for me. I want to see what this year looks like.


p.s. Others have wisely pointed out that one shouldn't pull the plug on the current head coach until one knows for sure they can get a better one. Bama's timing with Nick was pretty excellent: saw what he could do at LSU, watched him stub his toe in the NFL for a while, then offered him huge bucks to come back to where he was comfortable. So what's your brilliant idea for a replacement, and what's the timing look like on it?

Saban was Bama's first choice but they offered the job to Rich Rod before things broke their way so it's not like they had a bird in the hand. They knew Shula wasn't the man and they moved on.

If Butch was going to win the East it would've happened last season. The man isn't a good game day coach. We need to move on.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

So tell us your plan. Who do we go after, and how's the timing work?


[if you don't have a plan, you're just complaining]

 

[Behr]

So tell us your plan. Who do we go after, and how's the timing work?


[if you don't have a plan, you're just complaining]

If you don't care anything at all about Tennessee except for winning, you fire and hire, kick over rocks, until you finally get the right one. Simple.

 

[Boca Vol]

If and when UT pulls the plug I hope they have a plan in place. That's what's been missing for a long time...no plan. And we see the success, or lack thereof.

 

[chargervol]

So tell us your plan. Who do we go after, and how's the timing work?


[if you don't have a plan, you're just complaining]

It's all perceptions.

*For me, Jones didn't do a bad job last year. But let me clarify in attempt to stop negavols from twisting my words (yeah, like being perfectly clear will even slow them down) but here goes:

Jones didn't do a great/really good job either, like elite coaches do. But the truth is, Jones micromanages the offense, not the defense. We scored more points against the teams we lost to (excluding Bama) than almost every team that beat them.
In other words, we scored enough points to be 10-2 minimum. With Vandy, Jones still could have won with a true second half performance but we still scored more than most overall.. We just didn't stop anyone. They ate our lunch when we were on defense.

Bottom line, Jones is still responsible for the product but the majority of negas even praised the Shoop hire.
I have no idea who's right in the "why did the defense struggle so bad" debate.
I do know that the defense was the #1 reason we didn't win the east. Yes, the offense could still have pulled out Vandy but a 'team' will always rely on both sides to pick up slack on occasion. I never witnessed the defense do that.

Ironically, negas complain the most about the final record. Yet that final record was a direct result of the only Jones decision they approved of.

 

[Behr]

Lol.

Edit: I did laugh, especially at the last sentence.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

So tell us your plan. Who do we go after, and how's the timing work?


[if you don't have a plan, you're just complaining]

Fire Butch. Hire someone who is hopefully better. If the next person isn't better than Butch, fire that person and hire someone else. Repeat as necessary. Since I'm not the AD, I don't keep a list of candidates in my pocket but I think anyone with access to this site has the capability to search for top coaching candidates. Timing wise, there's never a wrong time to do the right thing. How about tomorrow morning?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

That's not a plan. That's just anger.

 

[TNJOKER]

Phillip Fulmer (2005-2008)



2005: 5–6 (3–5 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2006: 9–4 (5–3 SEC) 2-1 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2007: 10–4 (6–2 SEC) 1-2 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2008: 5–7 (3–5 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)



Lane Kiffin & Derek Dooley (2009-2012)



2009: 7–6 (4–4 SEC) 1-2 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2010: 6–7 (3–5 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2011: 5–7 (1–7 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2012: 5–7 (1–7 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)



Butch Jones (2013-2016)



2013: 5–7 (2–6 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2014: 7–6 (3–5 SEC) 0-3 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2015: 9–4 (5–3 SEC) 1-2 against (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama)

2016: 9–4 (4–4 SEC) 2-1 against (Florida, Georgia, Alabama)

Well.. Go Vols..

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

That's not a plan. That's just anger.

You were going to flame on anything I posted. You asked and I gave you an answer. Not my problem that you cannot discern between emotions and thoughts. There are people who can help you with that though.

 

[jakez4ut]

It's all perceptions.

*For me, Jones didn't do a bad job last year. But let me clarify in attempt to stop negavols from twisting my words (yeah, like being perfectly clear will even slow them down) but here goes:

Jones didn't do a great/really good job either, like elite coaches do. But the truth is, Jones micromanages the offense, not the defense. We scored more points against the teams we lost to (excluding Bama) than almost every team that beat them.
In other words, we scored enough points to be 10-2 minimum. With Vandy, Jones still could have won with a true second half performance but we still scored more than most overall.. We just didn't stop anyone. They ate our lunch when we were on defense.

Bottom line, Jones is still responsible for the product but the majority of negas even praised the Shoop hire.
I have no idea who's right in the "why did the defense struggle so bad" debate.
I do know that the defense was the #1 reason we didn't win the east. Yes, the offense could still have pulled out Vandy but a 'team' will always rely on both sides to pick up slack on occasion. I never witnessed the defense do that.

Ironically, negas complain the most about the final record. Yet that final record was a direct result of the only Jones decision they approved of.

good post, and i agree with most all of it.

the only thing i'd say in regards to the defense...and shoop, cause i'm one that did, and still do, praise the shoop hire....is that he came in as a highly sought after DC, has a proven track record at two P5 stops....

imo, there's just enough there on paper to justify why you can still put some faith in the guy.

as to the defense on the whole, it's obvious the injuries really killed us, especially in the 2nd half of the season, but even before the injuries started to mount up, we started the season thin at LB, and ran a personnel package (4-2-5) that's not what shoop has traditionally run as a result.

that, and i think many, self included, thought Martinez was a liability, and that kinda proved out over the course of the season, as many, again self included, thought we'd see improvement from Martin, Foreman, Mosley....we didn't, and you take Sutton away, and you have to go young...and the secondary just wasn't great.

then the wheels fall of as you lose your top 3 DT's in the rotation....you're personnel package at the beginning wasn't exactly desirable, and it got worse as the season went on.

excuses for shoop? sure if some want to call it that. to me, it just is what it is. i want to see what he can do with a full compliment of players in the front 7, and an improved/more experienced secondary.

to your overall point, i agree, the offense, while it wasn't hitting on all cylinders all the time, wasn't THE reason we didn't win 10 games.

600 yards rushing/game or whatever astronomical # we gave up those last 4-5 games had way more to do with that...puts all the pressure on the offense to score every possession just to keep up.

if you want to blame the offense for anything, i'd say it's inability to possess the ball, and protect the defense.

sometimes it felt like it was either 3 and out, or a 3 play scoring drive. either way, the defense was always going back out there......

 

[VFL-82-JP]

You were going to flame on anything I posted. You asked and I gave you an answer. Not my problem that you cannot discern between emotions and thoughts. There are people who can help you with that though.

I honestly wasn't. I was interested in seeing if you had constructive thoughts.

You know, there's a constructive and positive vibe to saying, "let's get rid of Butch, Gruden can come in, he said he'd be happy to, let's just move forward with him." Or, you know, anything where you see some future other than tossing what we have now into the garbage can, with no vision for what comes after.

But truly, without something constructive behind the complaints, it's all just whining and moaning.

 

[05_never_again]

The first post is Exhibit A to the point that Tennessee does not control its own destiny. It's painful to accept, but a certain part of Tennessee's success is dependent upon our biggest rivals being at least somewhat down as programs. It isn't a coincidence that Fulmer's biggest run of success came when Georgia and Alabama were bad programs with bad head coaches for extended periods of time. There was only one other consistently good program in the SEC during his run (Florida), and they got the better of us for the most part.

In other words, if Florida/Georgia/Alabama are firing on all cylinders, it is really hard for us to be as well. They have built-in recruiting advantages that Tennessee does not.

 

[jakez4ut]

The first post is Exhibit A to the point that Tennessee does not control its own destiny. It's painful to accept, but a certain part of Tennessee's success is dependent upon our biggest rivals being at least somewhat down as programs. It isn't a coincidence that Fulmer's biggest run of success came when Georgia and Alabama were bad programs with bad head coaches for extended periods of time. There was only one other consistently good program in the SEC during his run (Florida), and they got the better of us for the most part.

In other words, if Florida/Georgia/Alabama are firing on all cylinders, it is really hard for us to be as well. They have built-in recruiting advantages that Tennessee does not.

i just don't buy it. TN has always had the recruiting disadvantage, and we've always still recruited well, and at very high levels more than our fair share of the time.

and in today's landscape, the state of TN is putting out really good talent, in a volume many of us have have never seen before, so that playing field, while i'll not compare it to GA or FL annual crop of in state talent, is leveling out a little bit. plus we still get good talent out of GA and other neighboring states fairly regularly.

the thing TN has NEVER been able to do, at least in my lifetime, is avoiding the negative streaks.

you can have a program like TN that at times has been a fixture as a top 10 program, still go on decade long losing streaks to certain teams. granted, this past decade isn't that....

but when we have been at our peaks, we go on 9 year winless streak to Bama, then 6 year winless against FL, then 5-6 year to GA, and circle back to 10+ year losing streaks to FL and Bama.

we've been good enough in our time in the lime light to break those kinds of streaks up....and haven't. we've been good enough the last 3 years to break them up, and have to lesser degrees. that needs to continue, and at some point it may actually require beating one of those teams in a year, where they may just be a tick or two better than us. something we rarely do.

when we're a tick or two worse, we lose, and when we're even, we generally lose. so to your overall point, yes, when we've won, it's been in the years (most of the time anyway) we're clearly better. there's outliers to that obviously...98 FL, 01 FL, 09 GA, 15 GA....where we're even, or a tick or two behind.

but if we continue to recruit like we have the last 4 years, and can put teams on the field that are capable of competing with GA and FL (we're already there btw), then i don't think it's unreasonable to think we can go back and forth with those teams year to year.

you just can't go on 2-6, or 1-11, or 0-11....type streaks if you think you're one of "those" teams. especially when you're pretty even, competitively.

and i think most of us think we are, or at least that we're capable of it.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I don't buy it, either.

Things ebb and flow. Tennessee will be on top again, and we won't depend on FL, UGa, and Bama sucking to get there.

The only real question is how long it will take us to get back there.

Go Vols!

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

i just don't buy it. TN has always had the recruiting disadvantage, and we've always still recruited well, and at very high levels more than our fair share of the time.

and in today's landscape, the state of TN is putting out really good talent, in a volume many of us have have never seen before, so that playing field, while i'll not compare it to GA or FL annual crop of in state talent, is leveling out a little bit. plus we still get good talent out of GA and other neighboring states fairly regularly.

the thing TN has NEVER been able to do, at least in my lifetime, is avoiding the negative streaks.

you can have a program like TN that at times has been a fixture as a top 10 program, still go on decade long losing streaks to certain teams. granted, this past decade isn't that....

but when we have been at our peaks, we go on 9 year winless streak to Bama, then 6 year winless against FL, then 5-6 year to GA, and circle back to 10+ year losing streaks to FL and Bama.

we've been good enough in our time in the lime light to break those kinds of streaks up....and haven't. we've been good enough the last 3 years to break them up, and have to lesser degrees. that needs to continue, and at some point it may actually require beating one of those teams in a year, where they may just be a tick or two better than us. something we rarely do.

when we're a tick or two worse, we lose, and when we're even, we generally lose. so to your overall point, yes, when we've won, it's been in the years (most of the time anyway) we're clearly better. there's outliers to that obviously...98 FL, 01 FL, 09 GA, 15 GA....where we're even, or a tick or two behind.

but if we continue to recruit like we have the last 4 years, and can put teams on the field that are capable of competing with GA and FL (we're already there btw), then i don't think it's unreasonable to think we can go back and forth with those teams year to year.

you just can't go on 2-6, or 1-11, or 0-11....type streaks if you think you're one of "those" teams. especially when you're pretty even, competitively.

and i think most of us think we are, or at least that we're capable of it.

Sometimes you just need some good luck. If Lincoln could've gotten that kick past Mount Cody's butt maybe Bama doesn't get to the Rose Bowl and they wind up with a few less blue chip recruits as a result. Or maybe they resort to their ole blatant cheating ways and go back on probation. Jones got some good luck last year against UGA but didn't parlay it into anything.

Do you think our last two signing classes are really strong enough to put us in contention? It seems like we took a pretty big dip from Jones' first couple of classes. I'm sure we got a couple of diamonds in the rough, but they'll probably be equalized buy a couple of busts. That's usually how it goes.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

I honestly wasn't. I was interested in seeing if you had constructive thoughts.

You know, there's a constructive and positive vibe to saying, "let's get rid of Butch, Gruden can come in, he said he'd be happy to, let's just move forward with him." Or, you know, anything where you see some future other than tossing what we have now into the garbage can, with no vision for what comes after.

But truly, without something constructive behind the complaints, it's all just whining and moaning.

What we have is not meeting the goal that most of us would like to see met, which is getting back to 90s-level success. If the goal is to be met, change must occur. You may not see it yet but you will. I will be there to tell you 'I told you so' but only once because I will have earned it after enduring the ad hominem attacks and banal insults for refusing to see the emperor's new clothes and insisting on calling a spade a spade. We'll all be on the same page soon enough. Go Vols!

 

[johnrlansford]

So, you are comparing CBJ to Fulmer's worst years, and the Kiffin/Dooley years, to show CBJ is better than Dooley, but still not as good as Fulmer at his worst?

So shouldn't Fulmer's last years be his best teams as far as staff, recruiting, etc?

I agree Fulmer went down hill the last couple of years he was here but that isn't Butch Jones fault now is it?

Butch has the program going in the direction it needs to be going since Fulmer left, this will be the year that decides if he can get us over the hump or not. But i still believe he makes it until 2018 minimum pending a bowl game.

Go Vols!!!

 

[05_never_again]

i just don't buy it. TN has always had the recruiting disadvantage, and we've always still recruited well, and at very high levels more than our fair share of the time.

We recruit best when those other schools are down though. Fulmer was able to routinely get top recruits from neighboring states because Florida was really the only other SEC school for them to consider. Once Richt and Urban showed up at their respective schools, Fulmer all of a sudden wasn't an elite recruiter anymore. His last several recruiting classes were nothing to write home about.

I do think we can take solace in saying that, over a long periods of time (e.g., generational-length periods) Tennessee doesn't really underachieve as a program.

IMO, a program that has really underachieved throughout its entire history is Georgia. There is absolutely no good reason why they shouldn't have 3-5 national titles, maybe more, since 1964 (Vince Dooley's first year). Richt had enough talent during his time at Georgia to win multiple titles.

 

[BeardedVol]

So shouldn't Fulmer's last years be his best teams as far as staff, recruiting, etc?

Why is that?

I agree Fulmer went down hill the last couple of years he was here but that isn't Butch Jones fault now is it?

Did I blame Butch anywhere in my post? We fired Fulmer for his record those last 4 years, yet CBJ is going into his fifth, with a worse record over 4 years than Fulmer in those 4 years that resulted in his firing.

 

[05_never_again]

We fired Fulmer for his record those last 4 years, yet CBJ is going into his fifth, with a worse record over 4 years than Fulmer in those 4 years that resulted in his firing.

Trajectory of the program is what impacts your job security (positively or negatively), not necessarily the win/loss record.

Fulmer was being held to a standard he himself set, which was consistently competing for conference titles and fielding top-10 teams. When he stopped doing that, and even had a couple of losing seasons, recruiting starts to slip, etc., people grow sick of a long-time coach and want him gone. The trajectory of the program was clearly downward during his last few years.

Butch, meanwhile, has had the trajectory of the program on a season-by-season basis going up, until last year, when I'd argue the program plateaued. Once people start to perceive that the program is trending downward or stagnant for multiple years, he'll be gone.

 

[BeecherVol]

Trajectory of the program is what impacts your job security (positively or negatively), not necessarily the win/loss record.

Fulmer was being held to a standard he himself set, which was consistently competing for conference titles and fielding top-10 teams. When he stopped doing that, and even had a couple of losing seasons, recruiting starts to slip, etc., people grow sick of a long-time coach and want him gone. The trajectory of the program was clearly downward during his last few years.

Butch, meanwhile, has had the trajectory of the program on a season-by-season basis going up, until last year, when I'd argue the program plateaued. Once people start to perceive that the program is trending downward or stagnant for multiple years, he'll be gone.

True in a lot of ways.

Jones got a grace period following Dooley that not everyone gets. If Smart slips this year you will see their patience level diminish given the circumstances.

 

[05_never_again]

True in a lot of ways.

Jones got a grace period following Dooley that not everyone gets. If Smart slips this year you will see their patience level diminish given the circumstances.

Yep. If Smart has another 8-win regular season this year, I think he's facing a "win the SEC or be fired" year in year 3. Smart barely got even a one-year grace period, and it's because he doesn't particularly deserve one considering the program he inherited.

Butch, I would argue, got a 2-year grace period and was entirely deserving of it for the same reason Smart doesn't deserve one. It really wasn't until 2015 that people actually started putting expectations on the team.

Now that Butch is going into year 3 of having actual expectations, failure to meet them will result in his seat really being heated up.

 

[BeecherVol]

Yep. If Smart has another 8-win regular season this year, I think he's facing a "win the SEC or be fired" year in year 3. Smart barely got even a one-year grace period, and it's because he doesn't particularly deserve one considering the program he inherited.

Butch, I would argue, got a 2-year grace period and was entirely deserving of it for the same reason Smart doesn't deserve one. It really wasn't until 2015 that people actually started putting expectations on the team.

Now that Butch is going into year 3 of having actual expectations, failure to meet them will result in his seat really being heated up.

Anybody that keeps up with this conference on a general basis understands the climate of the division. If you cant find the top of it given that, patience is even harder to come by. It's JMs saving grace right now.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

We fired Fulmer for his record those last 4 years, yet CBJ is going into his fifth, with a worse record over 4 years than Fulmer in those 4 years that resulted in his firing.

(1) Butch actually has one more win than Phil in their respective last 4 years (Butch at 5+7+9+9 = 30, Phil at 5+9+10+5 = 29).

(2) Plus, Butch's trend is steadily upward, while Phil's last year was a dive below .500.

(3) Finally, we don't all agree that Phil should've been fired in '08. I'd have liked to see the man given a one-year sabbatical, followed by a second chance. But whatever, just saying "we fired Phil" doesn't mean that's a valid benchmark for when a coach oughta be fired.