VOLS PATH TO WIN THE EAST

#76
#76
Everything in this life is questionable to one degree or another, right? (Let's not bring in G_d at this point, ok)? Otherwise, do you have a reason for your statement? Got some stats to back up your negative claim?

Ok. My bad.
 
#77
#77
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
You forgot to add that we beat AL in a rematch in the SEC championship game for the overall conference title.
 
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#78
#78
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
The SEC "higher ups" would never let it happen.
 
#79
#79
can't wait until after south carolina wins how the next math equation plays out for sec championship to happen.
 
#83
#83
Anything is possible, but I am looking toward next year for a good possibility of winning the East.
Next year-agree that is the hope. Even though I've heard, "next year" for many, many year, next year is going to be the one. After the way we played BAMA, next year--here we come!
 
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#85
#85
If UK continues to run all over Missouri, this thread could gain momentum.

Doubt it. Even if Tennessee win out, Missouri has to beat Georgia and Florida and then Vandy has to beat Florida (among several others). I just don't see all three of those happening. Lightning has to strike at least three times.
 
#86
#86
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388), Missouri (.250), Kentucky (.402) and Vanderbilt (.826)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458 that they'll lose at least one of those two)
  • Georgia beats Florida (.615)
  • Vanderbilt beats Florida (.032)
  • Missouri beats Georgia (.164)
  • Missouri beats Florida (.377)
  • Auburn beats Georgia (.593)
  • Texas A&M beats Georgia (.176)
The odds of every single one of these games coming out as needed? 0.00019%. In other words, about two-ten-thousandths of a percent.

That's very close to the same as the odds you will get hit by lightning this year: 0.00014%.
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
p.p.s. Just glanced at FPI: the Vols line of the OP now looks like this:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (1.0), Kentucky (.403), Missouri (.362), and Vanderbilt (.862) == 12.5% chance of winning out in SEC play.
From 3.2% up to 12.5%, that's quite an improvement!
 
Last edited:
#87
#87
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
I’m proud of you for just coming up with this. Isn’t going to happen, but damn that must have taken a minute to think through.
 
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#88
#88
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.

I would give this post 10,000 likes if I could. Hilarious!
 
#91
#91
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
 
#92
#92
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
Well! Well! Well! Look what Kentucky did to Mizzou! Step one completed. As of this week, we are still in it!😉🤔😂💥👀🤷‍♀️
 
#93
#93
Next year-agree that is the hope. Even though I've heard, "next year" for many, many year, next year is going to be the one. After the way we played BAMA, next year--here we come!
One of these years when we say next year, it’ll be correct lol
 
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#96
#96
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
p.p.s. Just glanced at FPI: the Vols line of the OP now looks like this:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (1.0), Kentucky (.403), Missouri (.362), and Vanderbilt (.862) == 12.5% chance of winning out in SEC play.
From 3.2% up to 12.5%, that's quite an improvement!
Ill be waiting for your new update!😳💥👀
 

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