VOLS PATH TO WIN THE EAST

#77

volmoon

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#77
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
You forgot to add that we beat AL in a rematch in the SEC championship game for the overall conference title.
 
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#78

tpsdave

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#78
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
The SEC "higher ups" would never let it happen.
 
#86

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
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#86
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388), Missouri (.250), Kentucky (.402) and Vanderbilt (.826)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458 that they'll lose at least one of those two)
  • Georgia beats Florida (.615)
  • Vanderbilt beats Florida (.032)
  • Missouri beats Georgia (.164)
  • Missouri beats Florida (.377)
  • Auburn beats Georgia (.593)
  • Texas A&M beats Georgia (.176)
The odds of every single one of these games coming out as needed? 0.00019%. In other words, about two-ten-thousandths of a percent.

That's very close to the same as the odds you will get hit by lightning this year: 0.00014%.
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
p.p.s. Just glanced at FPI: the Vols line of the OP now looks like this:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (1.0), Kentucky (.403), Missouri (.362), and Vanderbilt (.862) == 12.5% chance of winning out in SEC play.
From 3.2% up to 12.5%, that's quite an improvement!
 
Last edited:
#87

CA_Vol

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May 6, 2010
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#87
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
I’m proud of you for just coming up with this. Isn’t going to happen, but damn that must have taken a minute to think through.
 
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#88

NcVolfan24

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May 19, 2016
Messages
117
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137
#88
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
I would give this post 10,000 likes if I could. Hilarious!
 
#91

Orange defense

Blood runneth orange in my veins
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#91
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
 
#92

Orange defense

Blood runneth orange in my veins
Joined
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Messages
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#92
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
Well! Well! Well! Look what Kentucky did to Mizzou! Step one completed. As of this week, we are still in it!😉🤔😂💥👀🤷‍♀️
 
#96

Orange defense

Blood runneth orange in my veins
Joined
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#96
UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.

Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).

Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).

So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!


p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
p.p.s. Just glanced at FPI: the Vols line of the OP now looks like this:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (1.0), Kentucky (.403), Missouri (.362), and Vanderbilt (.862) == 12.5% chance of winning out in SEC play.
From 3.2% up to 12.5%, that's quite an improvement!
Ill be waiting for your new update!😳💥👀
 

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