UPDATE -- if Kentucky holds on to the win (they're ahead of Mizzou 22-0 at the moment), the odds of Orange Defense's wild wish do need to be updated. Two key changes in the formula today:
- Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388) turns into (1.0)
- Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458) becomes (1.0) as well
The first result raises our chance of winning out, using pre-game ESPN FPI percentages to about 8% (was 3% before the USCe victory). And it will be even better than that after the ESPN FPI is updated tomorrow or Monday -- watch our chances of beating Mizzou and Kentucky rise, perhaps by quite a bit.
Before we beat the Gamecocks and Kentucky dropped 22 on Mizzou in the first half, the chance of everything happening in the OP's wish list was 0.00019% (about two-ten-thousandths of a percent). About the same as the chance of getting hit by lightning this year (0.00014%).
Now, though -- we're up to a 0.0011% chance (one-one-thousandth of a percent). That's a HECK of a lot better than your chance of being struck by lightning, and is about as good as your chances of being injured by a toilet (0.0010%).
So, things are looking great thus far, OD! Go Vols!
p.s. I'll update the calculations again tomorrow or Monday when the ESPN FPI chances are revised.
p.p.s. Just glanced at FPI: the Vols line of the OP now looks like this:
- Tennessee beats South Carolina (1.0), Kentucky (.403), Missouri (.362), and Vanderbilt (.862) == 12.5% chance of winning out in SEC play.
From 3.2% up to 12.5%, that's quite an improvement!