VOLS PATH TO WIN THE EAST

[DonDiego]

It is questionable if we’ll even win another game this year. I like the enthusiasm, however.

Everything in this life is questionable to one degree or another, right? (Let's not bring in G_d at this point, ok)? Otherwise, do you have a reason for your statement? Got some stats to back up your negative claim?

 

[TNnative]

After being on this website for a number of years, I am saddened that no one has attempted to figure out how the Vols can still win the East after they have been mathematically eliminated.

I am checking out our lakes to see if there are any decent sized islands. And if I can get one, build a resort of sorts on it. My first hire will be a midget.

 

[TNnative]

I appreciate your constant optimism, but it does border on lunacy at times.

Lol

Personally, I think it is far beyond the border. Were it a nation, it's on the main street of the capitol city.

 

[Lane Train 4]

Book it hahaha 10-5 National Champions!

 

[supersmo18]

 

[CAVPUT]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

I just want to beat USC and keep the bowl hopes alive.

 

[volmanbill]

 

[beamerman]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

How about Tn wins out, goes to a bowl and wins that. Nice year and everyone is back on board.

 

[goldvol]

....dinosaurs eat man. Woman inherits the earth

 

[LargeOrange1]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

I just came here to laugh at OP.

 

[TNnative]

I just came here to laugh at OP.

Becoming a hobby yet? Enjoy.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Are you the same person that presented the 4 way tie with 5-3 records and the 14 Presidents voted to put Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game?

 

[savannahfan]

Wow. You have a lot of time on your hands. I was following your logic until I got to “Vanderbilt beats Florida”.

Not much logic at all... Just wishful thinking.

 

[BeardedVol]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

 

[VOL_Lyfe]

 

[JohnD13]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

Put down the pipe. Please get help

 

[FLVOL_79]

Sounds like 2007 all over again, but with worse talent and coaching.

 

[FLVOL_79]

.

 

[treecejc]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

Can I get a hit off that?

 

[scottchatt]

Obviously this is never going to happen. However, it is amazing that this team is still technically in the race at this point. Sure they’re racing an F1 car while riding a bicycle missing a wheel...but they’re in it.

Beat SCar and they’re in it until Missouri beats Kentucky. If Kentucky pulls off a win, you’re in it until next week. All that week requires us the FL/GA game going the right way. Honestly it could be mid November before this team plays a game when they are technically eliminated. Considering how this year started...that’s pretty crazy.

Of course the next SEC loss means it’s all over no matter what. I just hope they can somehow pull off 6 and get a bowl. That would be a miracle in itself.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!

You got me excited, man!

So I started looking up the odds, haha. Just for fun, really.

I used ESPN's FPI for the percentage chances of each game. It looks like this in your format:

• Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388), Missouri (.250), Kentucky (.402) and Vanderbilt (.826)
• Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458 that they'll lose at least one of those two)
• Georgia beats Florida (.615)
• Vanderbilt beats Florida (.032)
• Missouri beats Georgia (.164)
• Missouri beats Florida (.377)
• Auburn beats Georgia (.593)
• Texas A&M beats Georgia (.176)

As you can see, the most likely things on this wish list are UGa beating the Gators (61.5% chance) and Auburn beating the Dawgs (roughly 60% chance). They're actually both more likely than not.

After that, each of the necessary conditions are an uphill battle.

The longest pole in the tent is Vandy beating Florida (just a 3% chance).

Curiously, there is almost _precisely_ the same chance of the Vols winning all four of our remaining SEC matches: 3.2% (that's the combined result of a 39% chance, a 25% chance, a 40% chance, and an 83% chance).

The odds of every single one of these games coming out as needed? 0.00019%. In other words, about two-ten-thousandths of a percent.

That's very close to the same as the odds you will get hit by lightning this year: 0.00014%.

The good news: it is somewhat better than your odds of winning $1million in a lottery (roughly 0.00005%).

So we have that going for us.

Thanks for the chance to have a little fun with probability & statistics, heh.

Go Vols!

 

[LakeMaryFLVol]

Wow. You have a lot of time on your hands. I was following your logic until I got to “Vanderbilt beats Florida”.

Everything here works but the Vandy FL ...

 

[PEPPERJAX]

After being on this website for a number of years, I am saddened that no one has attempted to figure out how the Vols can still win the East after they have been mathematically eliminated.

Orange defense has educated us all.