VOLS PATH TO WIN THE EAST

#52
#52
Orange defense said:
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
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C-3PO calculates our odds of success at 3,720-1. OP: "Never tell me the odds."
 
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#53
#53
Orange defense said:
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
Click to expand...

Kentucky has won the last 4 vs. Missouri, Georgia has won the last 2 vs. Florida, and Missouri has won the last 2 vs. Florida (21 point win last year and 29 point win in 2017). Georgia plays at Auburn and both are currently ranked in the top 10, and Texas A&M at UGA will be the first SEC matchup between the two. However, it's been 5 in a row for both Georgia over Missouri and Florida over Vanderbilt. Winning the East isn't impossible, but Tennessee finishing 7-5 and in 3rd behind Georgia and Florida is probably the realistic best case scenario.
 
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#55
#55
99gator said:
After being on this website for a number of years, I am saddened that no one has attempted to figure out how the Vols can still win the East after they have been mathematically eliminated.
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1990. We won the SEC. Math away.
bamawriter said:
There was a convo back in 2016 or so where some were making the case that a 3-loss Tennessee could still make the playoff.
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Admit it. You miss your buddy and wouldn't have made the avatar bet if you knew he'd run away.
 
#56
#56
VFL-82-JP said:
You got me excited, man!

So I started looking up the odds, haha. Just for fun, really.

I used ESPN's FPI for the percentage chances of each game. It looks like this in your format:
  • Tennessee beats South Carolina (.388), Missouri (.250), Kentucky (.402) and Vanderbilt (.826)
  • Missouri loses to either Kentucky or Arkansas (.458 that they'll lose at least one of those two)
  • Georgia beats Florida (.615)
  • Vanderbilt beats Florida (.032)
  • Missouri beats Georgia (.164)
  • Missouri beats Florida (.377)
  • Auburn beats Georgia (.593)
  • Texas A&M beats Georgia (.176)
As you can see, the most likely things on this wish list are UGa beating the Gators (61.5% chance) and Auburn beating the Dawgs (roughly 60% chance). They're actually both more likely than not.

After that, each of the necessary conditions are an uphill battle.

The longest pole in the tent is Vandy beating Florida (just a 3% chance).

Curiously, there is almost _precisely_ the same chance of the Vols winning all four of our remaining SEC matches: 3.2% (that's the combined result of a 39% chance, a 25% chance, a 40% chance, and an 83% chance).

The odds of every single one of these games coming out as needed? 0.00019%. In other words, about two-ten-thousandths of a percent.

That's very close to the same as the odds you will get hit by lightning this year: 0.00014%.

The good news: it is somewhat better than your odds of winning $1million in a lottery (roughly 0.00005%).

So we have that going for us.

Thanks for the chance to have a little fun with probability & statistics, heh.

Go Vols!
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#57
#57
vol9799 said:
Well heck, we might as well finish the thought by upsetting LSU in the Championship Game to pay them back for 2001 and in the process insure that no SEC team is part of the NC picture.
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Oh the sweet karma that would be... or taking down Saban and Alabama, since he was the coach of that LSU team.
 
#59
#59
Orange defense said:
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
Click to expand...
Like the way you think.....I'm gonna keep my eye on you. :)
 
#62
#62
vol9799 said:
Well heck, we might as well finish the thought by upsetting LSU in the Championship Game to pay them back for 2001 and in the process insure that no SEC team is part of the NC picture.
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They will put Bama in and use the old "eyeball test" excuse.
 
#66
#66
I like the optimism, but no.

Would be awesome to get a rematch with Bama in Atlanta though :)
 
#68
#68
vol9799 said:
Well heck, we might as well finish the thought by upsetting LSU in the Championship Game to pay them back for 2001 and in the process insure that no SEC team is part of the NC picture.
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I agree with you but we all know that the higher ups of the SEC will not allow that to happen. I mean they weren't about to let a lowly Tennessee team get close. Granted we didn't help ourselves, but I think it was determined before the "fumble of 2019" who was gonna come away with that one.
 
#71
#71
I guess we are making progress, we're back to trying to figure out ways we can win the East when it's clear we're not.
 
#72
#72
I’m on board! I mean, look at us in ‘16. We had the East all but wrapped up then......
 
#73
#73
Orange defense said:
So let’s recap what has to happen here:

Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23
Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

Tennessee: 5-3
Missouri: 5-3
Georgia: 4-4
Florida: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Vanderbilt: 4-4
Kentucky: 3-5

This is what could happen right? Still hope here!!
Click to expand...
You, sir, have way too much time on your hands.
 
#74
#74
Anything is possible, but I am looking toward next year for a good possibility of winning the East.
 
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