UT cancels classes

#253
#253
For the “whatever happens, happens” folks consider that COVID-19 is doubling every 4 days. Don’t look at current cases, do the math and see that if unchecked this gets bad for the most vulnerable pretty quick.

Don’t stop living life but PLEASE be cautious and take reasonable measures to slow the spread. The CDC, WHO et al are really good at their jobs and aren’t making this stuff up. To blow off reasonable measures is immoral.
 
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#254
#254
TN_Transplant said:
UT cancels classes

Here are some better numbers
Click to expand...

In exactly what way are the numbers you described as "better," better?
Because they come complete with a big shiny map of red circles? Because they fit your narrative more correctly?

How are they more complete than the worlds largest, most secure, Coronavirus test environment, also known as the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We know exactly who had it, we know exactly who didn't. We know who died, we know why. It was a scientific survey of 3500 people. That's actually a rather large sample size for a study in the field of medicine. Its data says your chart is at best incomplete, and at worst intentionally fabricated to push a narrative. In either case, that map data is flat wrong.
 
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#255
#255
GoVols64 said:
COVID-19 is doubling every 4 days. Don’t look at current cases, do the math and see that if unchecked this gets bad for the most vulnerable pretty quick.
Click to expand...

Could you please source from whence you got the "doubling every 4 days" statistic?

worldometers.info states there were 106000 on March 7 and on March 11 (4 days later) there were 126000. Now, I'm unhappy there was an increase of 20K in 4 days, but that is in no way a doubling. Four days before, on March 3, it was at 93000. This is not doubling.
 
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#256
#256
Aerie Vol said:
In exactly what way are the numbers you described as "better," better?
Because they come complete with a big shiny map of red circles? Because they fit your narrative more correctly?

How are they more complete than the worlds largest, most secure, Coronavirus test environment, also known as the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We know exactly who had it, we know exactly who didn't. We know who died, we know why. It was a scientific survey of 3500 people. That's actually a rather large sample size for a study in the field of medicine. Its data says your chart is at best incomplete, and at worst intentionally fabricated to push a narrative. In either case, that map data is flat wrong.
Click to expand...

Because they are numbers provided by Johns Hopkins, and not picked out of thin air.

Edit: But since you wish to look at the Diamond Princess, let's look at it. Here's what Johns Hopkins says in relation to how they have counted that data; "Note: All cases of COVID-19 in repatriated US citizens from the Diamond Princess are grouped together, and their location is currently designated at the ship’s port location off the coast of Japan. These individuals have been assigned to various quarantine locations (in military bases and hospitals) around the US. This grouping is consistent with the CDC. "

So, if we drill down to it:

1584041336917.png

So, with 696 confirmed cases, 364 still active, 7 deaths, that puts it at 2.11% mortality rate. Discounted the 364 active, as the previous example. But that pushes the error rate to +/- 1.1% so rate could be as high as 3.21%. I would caution that the larger sample rate from Hubei is still better example. There are another 46 active accounted for under another slide, but all of those are still active.

Also, people from cruise ships, although released are still beginning to test positive: Two people from Forsyth County have tested positive for novel coronavirus

From the article: "The couple from Forsyth County was on a cruise where other travelers tested positive."

Also, here's the link to Johns Hopkins if you missed it from earlier in the thread: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
 

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#257
#257
Aerie Vol said:
Could you please source from whence you got the "doubling every 4 days" statistic?

worldometers.info states there were 106000 on March 7 and on March 11 (4 days later) there were 126000. Now, I'm unhappy there was an increase of 20K in 4 days, but that is in no way a doubling. Four days before, on March 3, it was at 93000. This is not doubling.
Click to expand...

Good point. I should have written it has the potential to double. Based on modeling:

Disease modelers gaze into computers to see future of Covid-19 - STAT
 
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#258
#258
TN_Transplant said:
Because they are numbers provided by Johns Hopkins, and not picked out of thin air.
Click to expand...

Please refute the numbers I "pulled out of thin air." Do you deny 700 is a correct (rounded) number of people who contracted Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess? Do you deny 7 is the number who died? Do you deny 25 (estimate) of the 30 Americans who died were residents of a nursing home?

What is wrong with my numbers?
 
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#259
#259
Aerie Vol said:
Please refute the numbers I "pulled out of thin air." Do you deny 700 is a correct (rounded) number of people who contracted Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess? Do you deny 7 is the number who died? Do you deny 25 (estimate) of the 30 Americans who died were residents of a nursing home?

What is wrong with my numbers?
Click to expand...


Sure, see my update with Diamond Princess numbers here: UT cancels classes
 
#261
#261
EZE said:
If you take a global look at this, the worst thing is for people to shrink and hide from it. Even if successful in moving the entire population to avoid it, you only allow the virus to mutate, get stronger, and be an even bigger killer when it finally hits the population.

IMO, better to let it run its course and allow the younger population to start building the proper antibodies to fight it. (The elderly and infirm should take stronger precautions.)

FWIW, I’m on vacation in a popular cruise destination this week an will be exposed to passengers from 14 cruise ships. Whatever will be...will be.
Click to expand...

Kill off the old people...
Saw that movie in 1967..(wild in the streets) didn't work out to well for the younger generation.
 
#262
#262
Aerie Vol said:
Please refute the numbers I "pulled out of thin air." Do you deny 700 is a correct (rounded) number of people who contracted Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess? Do you deny 7 is the number who died? Do you deny 25 (estimate) of the 30 Americans who died were residents of a nursing home?

What is wrong with my numbers?
Click to expand...

Because they are real data, and not continued speculation to scare the masses?
 
#264
#264
EZE said:
Because they are real data, and not continued speculation to scare the masses?
Click to expand...
No, I don't believe so. My original numbers from Hubei are a lot less scary. Using only the numbers from the Diamond Princess, 3500 total, 700 infections (yes, I rounded) that gives you a 20% infection rate. With the 7 deaths, that gave a 2.11% fatality rate. Translate those numbers to the U.S. general population: 300 million, 20% infection rate = 60 million sick, of those 60 million, 2.11% fatality rate = 1,266,000 dead.

My original estimate based on Hubei was roughly 20,000 to 25,000 deaths, much more reasonable.
 
#265
#265
our relative who is in an NHC facility in Murfreesboro just informed us that their facility is on a 30-day quarantine and don't bother coming to visit. responsible entities are doing what is necessary to protect the vulnerable. if nonvulnerable people want to use this as an excuse to laze around and slough off the responsibilities of life, fine with me. just don't expect me to bail your sorry asses out when it's over. back to business.
 
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#266
#266
k-town_king said:
Not surprised to see the normal whackos that are wrong about everything else downplaying this.

This is not the flu.
ESYflxEXkAUUuS3
Click to expand...
Exhibit A of how to lie with numbers. At a glance you make a very strong point. but the 2 graphs are not apples to apples and tell different stories. if you are over 60 covid is a big deal if you're not it definitely is exactly as dangerous tas the flu. At the same time in the flu graph they hide the numbers because there are a lot more people between 65-70 than 70+ by adding everything 65+ in one bar they suppress the numbers.

Break it down like this If I have 4 groups of people A had 10000 B has 1000 C has 100 and D has 10. If 2 people die in each group im looking at a chart that shows A 0.02% B 0.2% C 2%D 20% and if I combine them I come up with a bar that shows 0.08%. yes its dangerous to people over a certain age but again if they spread that .83% they show for the flu from 65+ into 60-69 70-79 and 80+ those numbers would rise a lot in those last 2 categories also by a huge amount
 
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#268
#268
sjt18 said:
You ARE a fundamentally dishonest person. You just compared US flu related deaths to Chinese deaths from a newly discovered virus.

Not surprising that you would distort these "stats" too. In 1,300+ US confirmed cases, 38 people have died. Thirty of those fatalities occurred in Washington State. At least 26 of those were in a single nursing home. Most if not all of those victims were over 70... which pretty much disproves the conclusion you draw from this graph.
Click to expand...
its what happens when you put graphs and numbers in front of people that don't understand them and have an agenda. I have worked in IT all my adult life (nearly 30 years in the industry). I remember when the internet was new and I felt it was this great thing that allowed knowledge to be spread faster. That is still true but it also allows the opposite to spread faster. What's more insidious bad information spreads faster and with more power because it being out there gives it a sense of credibility.

I smoke Newports. Back in 2014 the company that made them Lorillard was sold off to RJ Reynolds (Camel) the deal closed in 2015. When they took over they changed the packaging of Newports slightly (actually upgraded the quality). Almost immediately social media lit up that there were counterfeit new ports in stores because the old ones were still o the shelves and they were getting sold side by side. The difference better packaging. Now most people would get the fact that you're not gonna counterfeit something and UPGRADE it. or so I assumed. Nope there were youtube videos, Facebook posts etc. The name of the new company was on the box. you'd think folks would put 2 and 2 together and you'd think they get it the other way around and think the old packs were the counterfeit ones lol.


Anyway hopefully this all dies down and we get basketball back soon. In a week or 2 the hysteria will die down.
 
#269
#269
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
Sounds like you are a partisan left winger. The administration was actually ahead of the curve when he restricted travel from China but guess what ?, he was crucified then for overacting by the left wing media.
Click to expand...
More of a Centrist. I don't criticize, just pissed that neither party could not see this coming and work together for the people vs ignoring and going about their lives in a business as usual fashion.
 
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#270
#270
sjt18 said:
Found this. Not my numbers... just presenting it for discussion.


89862566_10221564115190179_6709412418763620352_n.jpg
Click to expand...
Would be interesting to see numbers from Guandong. Wuhan has a population of over 11 million Guandong has pop over 110 million. but still, that's a big sample size from a very crowded city. for scale Wuhan is about 3300 square miles with a population of 11 million. Connecticut is 4800 with a population of 3.5 million.

I am making this point because China and Inda are like worst-case scenarios for something like this. Not because of anything but sheer population and population density. The most other countries in say Europe are wide open by comparison and North America it's not even comparable how much personal space we have. Do you think we live in close quarters? Medical masks are like a big thing lately go to China or Japan during normal times and surgical masks are more common than baseball caps and baseball caps are as popular there as here. Its like every day wear for a lot of folks there they even have fashionable ones.
 
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#271
#271
sjt18 said:
Found this. Not my numbers... just presenting it for discussion.

If there is anything to glean from this table is that the number of cases, deaths, and countries have increased exponentially on Covid. Like previously stated if you are in a younger demographic then just another cold, but if you are older or you have older parents then you have a moral responsibility to isolate yourself to prevent their exposure. Look at Spanish Flu for insight as mortality rate was slightly under the 1% stated yesterday of Corvid-19.
89862566_10221564115190179_6709412418763620352_n.jpg
Click to expand...
This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works
 
#273
#273
volintheham said:
This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works
Click to expand...
Not in question. But where do you draw the line?

In 2017-2018, the CDC estimated that 61,000 people in the US died from the flu... and believes that number to be understated. About 85% of those who die of the flu are over 65 with a significant % of the rest being very young. So did we cancel school or the NCAA tournament because someone might catch the flu, give it to someone else, who gives it to someone else, who happens to visit a nursing home? No.

The swine flu was both more widespread and deadly than Covid. I don't recall this kind of media fostered panic.

This was a political play by the media and left that has now gotten out of hand. They wanted to create a narrative and instead got a panic. Now everyone is afraid of being the one who can be accused of letting it spread. Unless you are prepared to live in fear like this forever... it is going to spread.
 
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#275
#275
sjt18 said:
Not in question. But where do you draw the line?

In 2017-2018, the CDC estimated that 61,000 people in the US died from the flu... and believes that number to be understated. About 85% of those who die of the flu are over 65 with a significant % of the rest being very young. So did we cancel school or the NCAA tournament because someone might catch the flu, give it to someone else, who gives it to someone else, who happens to visit a nursing home? No.

The swine flu was both more widespread and deadly than Covid. I don't recall this kind of media fostered panic.

This was a political play by the media and left that has now gotten out of hand. They wanted to create a narrative and instead got a panic. Now everyone is afraid of being the one who can be accused of letting it spread. Unless you are prepared to live in fear like this forever... it is going to spread.
Click to expand...
So far 38 people have died from covid in the US. as stated before most of those came from one state (30) and nursing home (26 or was it 24?). Even taking into account its only been a short while lets extrapolate it over a year.. factoring in at this point there is no treatment or vaccine and for the flu there are both. the fact its worldwide means there will likely at the very least be treatment in the very near future we are looking at WORLDWIDE numbers of that same 61k a year..

Right now it's at its worst, running rampant. 4718 deaths confirmed worldwide of those 4300 are in China (3056) Italy (827) and Iran (429). India the most populated and crowded (also one of the poorest per capita) country on earth has 73 confirmed cases and 1 death. I think the hysteria needs to calm down some until we have answers. The main reason moves are being made so fast here is litigation. Folks are scared to get sued just in case. I don't mean scared someone gets it at their event or place of business and dies I mean someone sues them because they didn't close their store and their neighbor's cat had a heart attack because that's how suing works in America.

A popular Rapper slapped someone (ended up being a female) because they hit him in the face with a cell phone taking a picture he couldn't identify them because of the flash. he put out a 10k bounty so he could contact her and apologize. Some chick pops up tries to sue him because he caused a "concussion to her jaw" yup read that a few times and let it sink in. She wasn't even the lady she was someone standing near her. The fact that someone can bring up a bogus suit like that against you and it likely make it to court is the reason folks are so scared and will shut things down in a minute.
 
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