View attachment 265880
If we use Hubei province as our study (since it is the largest dataset that is mature enough to extrapolate from), we see that out of a population of 58.5 million, 67,781 have been confirmed infected, putting the infection rate at about 0.12%. If we expand that out to 300 million to compare to the US (I know, it's a ballpark figure, not exact), you get an estimate of 347,595 confirmed cases for the U.S.
Now, of those 67,781 confirmed cases, 14,407 are still active, so we have to throw those out of the the equation, since the outcome isn't known. That leaves us with 53,374 test cases. Of those 53,374, 3056 died. That gives us a 5.73% mortality rate. That's a scary number, much worse than the estimated 3.4%. If we expound that out to the 347,595 in the US estimation, we are looking at an estimate of 19,902 deaths in the U.S. Keep in mind that the 5.73% mortality rate for Hubei is an estimate for known cases, and could be plus or minus 1.22% as an error rate. So taking the error rate into account, we are looking at most at something like 24,132 U.S. deaths ballpark.
Not trying to minimize or sensationalize either way. Just trying to give a good set of realistic numbers on the current datasets that are significant enough to look at given the knowns.